I min 3b K7s vs whale, river value on AAJJ8? - 25nl

ok, villain is 75-50 over tiny sample and i'm looking to play a lot of pots with him and get him used to some aggro. Rest of the table are too weak to take obvious cold 4b lines. Min 3b is for value/position vs retardo-range. Flop is interesting, like, he's a station and i can probably bet here but... turn and i figure i'm just going to take my showdown value cos i'm about always ahead. River and he's hopefully dumb enough to call 3pr and I've got K hi in a 3b pot so pretty straightforward value? I mean, he's gonna tilt no matter what happens, so I guess this is +EV regardless? too thin? sizing?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($8.75)
MP3 ($41.41)
CO ($23.10)
Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($22.63)
BB ($27.90)
UTG ($24.42)
UTG+1 ($27.68)
MP1 ($10.82)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7:club:, K:club:
4 folds, MP3 bets $0.85, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.45, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.60

Flop: ($3.25) J:diamond:, A:diamond:, 8:club: (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3.25) J:spade: (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks

River: ($3.25) A:heart: (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $2,

Without specific reads for what his range is like for calling a 3b I think the 3b is a bit thin for value.

For the flop, if you're assuming he's calling the 3b often enough that you can 3b K7s for value, then he has all kinds of shit at this point. In that case I think you have to bet the flop.

For the river bet as played.. I dunno. You really think he would call that bet with Q high? I kinda like a retardedly small bet around $1.00 but I wouldn't really have too many problems with checking it back and showing him the K7.

Cool hand

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kfaess

Without specific reads for what his range is like for calling a 3b I think the 3b is a bit thin for value.

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I doubt the min 3bet folds out more than like 5% of the vill's opening range. Suited Ks play fine IP especially vs morans who will be face up after the flop. river bet seems fine.

even though he's playing his hand faceup postflop doesn't mean we have a ton of fold equity postflop. We might have a slight absolute equity edge(well, min 3b'ing is obv pretty +EV but i think flatting is better) vs his calling range but even then its really small if its there at all. I like a river bet but $2 seems way too big