2NL 6max As5s in the BB vs UTG raise

*it's button raise, not UTG raise if a mod could please change the title

Button is 15/15/0 3b/22ATS over 20 hands
SB is 100/14/0 3b/33ATS over 16 hands

I call pre, could fold it as well I guess.

What do you think of leading the flop here?
Button range after his raise: JJ+,99,77,AJs,KhQh,KJs,QJs,T8s,AJo,KJo,QJo

I have 40% all in equity against this range, pot odds are 28.6% after his raise.

Wonder if I have enough fold equity to shove over?

EV of the shove if he folds x% of the time:
x*$0.85+(1-x)*(0.4*($0.85+$1.36)+0.6*(-$1.70))=0
x=13.8%
So if he folds 13.8% of the time I break even

Shove? Fold?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (BB) ($2)
UTG ($2.50)
MP ($1.49)
CO ($2)
Button ($1.92)
SB ($2.26)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5:heart:, A:heart:
3 folds, Button bets $0.07, SB calls $0.06, Hero calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.21) 7:heart:, 9:heart:, J:club: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.15, Button raises $0.49

edit: do you see the problem with my calc above? I am taking my 40% equity against his raising range, when I should really be taking my equity against his shove calling range. The problem is that I don't know what is his calling range because I don't know what is his folding %. So I have to take this the other way around and count combos. His raising range has 47 combos if I counted correctly. Let's say he folds all non hearts KJ and QJ, that's 22 combos, or 47% of his range. His shove calling range is then JJ+,99,77,AJs,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,T8s,AJo against which I only have 37% equity, not 40%. So my EV if I shove: 0.47*$0.85+0.53*(0.37*($0.85+$1.36)+0.63*(-$1.70))=$0.26, so the shove is +EV if the raising range and the call-a-shove ranges I assigned him are correct.

I dont quite get the hand. What was the problem? what happened? Did you folded? Its ok to make a continuation bet to defend your draw and of course you need to fold after that reraise. Id put him on AJ :s

I would say dont call preflop. 3bet or fold.

Why are you donking this flop if you dont know how to react to a raise?

sets, QQ+, TJs+,AJ, KQs and probably others are in his range after the raise.
He's raising into 2 players so your fold equity is probably very low.
If I thought my Ace was an out I would consider shoving but I dont think it will be here often enough.

My mind was made up about what I would do after both opps actions. It's not like it took me by surprise. I just want other's opinions about what they would have done in this spot.

If I take the range you assigned him and assuming like you say that he calls a shove with all of it, then the A is an out against the majority of the range, isn't it? Even then, if he folds 0% we have to fold. But does he really not fold JT to a shove?

Not sure about 3b A5s pre against 2. I think fold is better because a pair of 5 is very easily compromised when I make 2 pairs. I called because they were 2, and it's only 0.05 to win 0.15, pretty good odds. bb against button I mostly 3b or fold, occasionally call.

3bet pre with only 1 caller, flat with two callers unless the SB is a mega fish that you are going to be getting a lot of money from and the BTN is going to play fit or fold.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daviddem

Button is 15/15/0 3b/22ATS over 20 hands
SB is 100/14/0 3b/33ATS over 16 hands

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Jesus don't 3bet pre; does anyone pay attention to the reads before posting lol??
*edit- it could be a pretty sexy iso 3b for value but that sounds retarded given we don't know much about the BTN

3-bet ai otf. You have 12 outs against TP and a tag could easily be raising your donk light.

It's great that you're doing the math to build intuition about equity, but at the nanos people's ranges are going to be unpredictable and mood-dependent. You have too much sd equity and fe on the flop to do anything other than shove.

BTW, when you donk with this hand, it's usually with the intention of b/3b'ing ai. If you don't want to shove over a raise, than don't donk, either c/c or c/r.

Quote:

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BTW, when you donk with this hand, it's usually with the intention of b/3b'ing ai. If you don't want to shove over a raise, than don't donk, either c/c or c/r.

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I agree. My thinking was that I have sufficient fold equity against the 15/15 to shove profitably if he raised me. I would have called/folded if SB had called/come over the top because then my fold equity becomes next to nil and my equity plummets as well if they both stay in.

I am interested to hear whether people prefer a check raise or the donk bet. My thought is that if I check:
1) button may elect to take the free card instead of cbetting vs 2. This is not bad, I guess, as I also get a valuable free card.
2) if he cbets, the SB calling station is likely to call and if I wanted to raise after that I would have to commit myself with less fold equity.
3) if SB folds to button cbet, one advantage of the check raise is that I probably have more fold equity than with the donk bet.

Thoughts?

flat pre is fine, leading flop is okay but checking is probably better here if the btn c-bets any kind of decent % just because of relative position(If the fish was say MP and you were BB and BTN iso raised the MP it'd be better to lead). If he checks back a lot then definitely lead, after leading though definitely 3b the flop.

eV calc looks good.

SB is loose-passive, so if he cold-calls BTN's flop raise, that's basically dead money. His calling range is probably any pair/any draw, and you're often ahead of him right now. If he cold 3-bets, you could just muck because then he has a nut hand, is never folding and you could have as little as 25% equity against a set.

The thing about your nut draw is you really want to be all-in on the flop when you still have good equity against a decently wide range (one pair hands and draws as well as nut hands), OR you want to keep the pot small and draw for cheap, and whichever line is best depends alot on the BTN. Here, the board is so drawy that I like the b/3b line because, whatever kind of player BTN is, there's a fair number of draws in his flop raising range.

I like c/c better than c/r because if BTN just calls the raise then you're oop in a growing pot and most of the time you lose half your equity on the turn. c/c would be good versus a passive player on a drier board. But c/r realizes any FE you might have, so it's a toss-up to some degree.

Another option is check/shove, trapping the BTN's c-bet in the pot and forcing him to make a stack decision when his range is still very wide. It kinda turns your hand face up but it's really unexploitable. I wouldn't worry about SB calling BTN's c-bet in front of you. It doesn't change your chances of hitting your nut draw and you still have FE vs him when you shove.

Thanks for your insights.

The only little issue is that I apparently lol-overestimated my fold equity, as he called the shove and turned over... AsKh. Couldn't believe it as he proceeded to call me a donkey when I caught a Th on the turn, then he went "you fish always think a flush draw is the nuts"

Guess I should have come up with some negative number for fold equity :rolleyes:

what didnt you put in the range AKs,AKo, AQs and AQo? in 2 nl reraising flop with that is often possible... with these EV would be - :)

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what didnt you put in the range AKs,AKo, AQs and AQo? in 2 nl reraising flop with that is often possible... with these EV would be - :smile:

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Because I generally assume that an opp with 15/15 stats is capable of finding the fold button and doesn't mindlessly call a shove facing a range that crushes him.

you are 2 nl man....and they wouldnt fold AQso+ on that board

and you thought me that to take in range any playable cards... so that means also AQso+ in this case, and also forgot to put in 68s and JTso, so you had no +EV, no way... dont be upset, i am just doing what i learned from you