22 in the sb, multiway pre but unsure about implied odds

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11-20-2010, 08:27 PM
mbiz

22 in the sb, multiway pre but unsure about implied odds

MP ($12.81)
Button ($5.22)
Hero (SB) ($6.34)
BB ($8.08)
UTG ($0.83)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
UTG bets $0.15, MP calls $0.15, Button calls $0.15, hero: ??

PFR'ers stack is way small, but there are 2 others in the pot with decent stacks. However I feel like they are only calling with speculative hands like PP's and medium to strong SC's such that im rarely going to stack someone and often going to get stacked by bigger hands here if the chips go in.

What do you guys think is this a fold or a call?
11-20-2010, 10:18 PM
daviddem

Call and set mine, there is a good chance that one of the two full stacked opps will hit something, plus there is already 9bb in the pot to sweeten the deal.
11-20-2010, 11:46 PM
AFchung

mp and button are in there and are deep enough. multiway this is a super std call.
11-21-2010, 12:59 AM
mbiz

oh ok, my question was really is setmining actually +ev here but i didnt ask that properly. anyway ty the answer is yes it seems
11-21-2010, 01:08 AM
kiwiMark

preflop try to be born in a different country
11-21-2010, 02:14 AM
Kits

Quote:

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

preflop try to be born in a different country

lol :)

Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
11-21-2010, 03:29 AM
mbiz

i see more NZ'ers moving to aus than vice versa sir
11-21-2010, 10:34 PM
PokerWang

Yes. Setmining is +EV in this situation.
11-22-2010, 07:52 PM
HarleyGuy13

Set mining is +EV if the stacks are right and if you can get it in. Against some it's not going to work because you'll not be able to extract enough. You're going to hit your set one out of eight times.
11-22-2010, 08:34 PM
rpm

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarleyGuy13

You're going to hit your set one out of eight times.

i'm not so sure this is true. though most of the poker maths i "know" i've learnt by memory. so i could be wrong. i thought it was closer to 8:1 against (which would be 1/9).
11-22-2010, 08:36 PM
rpm

as for the hand. one less caller and i may fold, but getting almost 4:1, we don't have to extract much more than a pot-sized bet postflop in order for flatting to be neutral EV. given there are 3 opponents, one of them is pretty likely to flop top pair or some other hand they call a street or two with.
11-22-2010, 10:23 PM
daviddem

It's 10.8% chance of flopping a set with a pocket pair, or 1:8.3.

Against only one limper, depending on who he his, I'll sometimes raise it, sometimes fold it.
11-23-2010, 05:32 PM
HarleyGuy13

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpm

i'm not so sure this is true. though most of the poker maths i "know" i've learnt by memory. so i could be wrong. i thought it was closer to 8:1 against (which would be 1/9).

May be correct RPM as I am relying on an old memory myself!
11-23-2010, 06:17 PM
OngBonga

Quote:

Originally Posted by daviddem

It's 10.8% chance of flopping a set with a pocket pair, or 1:8.3

Not quite.

1 - (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48) = 0.11755102, or 11.76% approx, or 1 in 8.5 approx, or 1:7.5 approx.
11-23-2010, 10:22 PM
daviddem

Quote:

1 - (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48) = 0.11755102, or 11.76% approx, or 1 in 8.5 approx, or 1:7.5 approx.

You're right. These are the odds of flopping a set or better, which is really what we are interested into. The ones I quoted are the odds of flopping exactly a set.

Note: actually 1 - (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48) = 0.882449 and these are the odds of x not being on the flop when we hold xx. 1-0.882449=11.76% are then the odds that at least one x is on the flop, which includes xyy and xxy flops which give you a boat or quads.