100NL 44, bottom set

Hey guys, I need a range check here. Villain is a passive TAG, stats 13/8, 1.3% 3bet. I'm fairly certain he's calling up to QQ pre here. I don't think there are any straights in his range that complete on this turn. On the other hand his aggression nearly made me fold because he really is the passive type, however, given the following range, it's a call since I need a little over 40%.

FWIW my image is really active and aggro both pre and post flop, probably running around 30/25ish in about 40 hands which _could_ account for some frustrated FPS on his side. However, I haven't shown down anything out of line.

Edit: last thought, I don't know if I can include JJ in his river betting range considering how passive he is, which would bring my equity down further and would probably make this too thin.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.143% 57.14% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 4c4s }
Hand 1: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 9 0.00 { QQ-JJ, 99, 77, 55 }

Watchoo think?

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($149.40)
BB ($42.40)
UTG ($46.50)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($100)
Hero (MP2) ($164.10)
CO ($101.35)
Button ($46.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif
3 folds, Hero bets $3, CO calls $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, CO calls $6, 1 fold

Turn: ($21.50) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $14, CO raises to $32, Hero calls $18

River: ($85.50) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $60.35 (All-In), Hero calls $60.35

Total pot: $206.20 | Rake: $3

fold turn. PASSIVE as u say. he's def not shoving QQ JJ on the river

[AA/99/77/55]
it's close, but probably a fold if you discount AA some

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

[AA/99/77/55]
it's close, but probably a fold if you discount AA some

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if u gave him this exact range it'd be a snap call...not close at all

fold turn like bickes said since ur probably calling 78 to win 205 nearly 100% of the time

Villain flipped 88, fwiw. The call left me with a dirty taste in my mouth, hence the post.

At the time I thought he's repping so thin and my image was pretty aggrotard at the time, which led me to make the call convincing myself there are a couple of hands where he's spazzing out with in his range and sometimes QQ-AA, though I do think he 3bets the top of that pre so I don't know how much we can really expect to see AA-KK type here.

i guess the lesson here is you need more than just vpip/pfr to make post flop decisions.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

i guess the lesson here is you need more than just vpip/pfr to make post flop decisions.

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he said passive in the thing. so i went with that

ahh fair enough

i still couldnt fold :(

Well if he wasn't passive post flop and we can include some TP/two pair combos its snapcall.

FWIW I'm not saying my call is good given villain + spot, was just interested to see what other people do but I guess in the end it can be down to very specific table dynamic/image thing.

probably smoked, but i dont like folding sets :(

A9 = 44 here. The fours have blockers though.