50nl AA river spot

villian is an ftr reg. i think he's a winner. no history whatsoever.
do i bet this river for pretty thin value, c/c but i have no idea if he'll bluff or turn hands into bluffs or do i c/f


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) -
saw flop

BB ($26.05)
UTG ($22.40)
MP ($167.80)
CO ($51.20)
Button ($216.30)
Hero (SB) ($125)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Button calls $0.50, Hero bets $3, 1 fold, UTG calls $2.50, Button calls $2.50

Flop: ($10.10) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $6.50, 1 fold, Button calls $6.50

Turn: ($23.10) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $13.50, Button calls $13.50

River: ($50.10) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero?

$8/fold

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

$8/fold

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These inducing sizings and then folding tilt me inside each time I read them.

I'd rather $20/fold.

I'd rather $8/shove with a boat here, just cause I expect to get raised by Qx and raised as a bluff, since I don't think ppl expect us to bet Qx like this.

You just want to be exploitable in every single spot don't you griffo? :)

Turn bet is too small when he has so many pair/gutters. River spot confuses me. I don't see what Qx he could possibly have that is too weak to iso a 40bb donk pre, but strong enough to overcall a 3 dollar raise.

Needless to say I think its really hard for him to have a queen, but its also really hard for him to call a bet with worse, and he has little need to bluff when checked to. Given that I think I would take pocketfours's line. He can't really have any pure bluffs.