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AKo on River @ 2NL
Stats on Villains, Villain 1 after 22 hands is 24/4 pre-flop and Villain 2 is 56/22 after 52 hands. Villain 2 is a calling station and I'm not entirely concerned with him in this hand.
I am 13/5 after 52 hands on this table and as far as the majority of the table goes, people don't respect my c-bets for whatever reason (I'm not firing them every round either.)
Villain 1 I imagine has a calling range on the button of somewhere like 22+, Axs, JTo+, and maybe Kxs, but I haven't seen enough hands go to showdown to give a really good read on him.
Okay so I get called by both villains, the flop comes and brilliant I've got the nuts, but the flush draw makes me go ahead and raise villain 2 who has been c-betting the flop trying to bully people around the last 20 hands or so. To my dismay villain 1 calls and villain 2 also calls. At this point I am going to put Villain 1 on a bigger pair or possibly a set and Villain 2 on a wider ranger, most likely 10xo+.
The turn comes and it pairs the boards 10's. Since Villain 1 and 2 both have a pair of tens in their range this gives them the possibility of a set of 10's (I'm not going to worry about quads at this point, if they've got them I'm just going to pay them off). They also still have other pairs in their range from the board, so I go ahead and fire a second time since if my assumption of someone pairing 10's is correct I can probably suck another bet out. Villain 1 calls and Villain 2 folds.
At this point I am fairly certain that Villain 1 has trip 10's, or two pair. So his range is going to be {QQ-TT,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo}.
The river comes a Q and I assume that unless he has a Q or a 10, I have him beat. My assumption is that I have 2 options here, to bet out or to check-call since Villain might only call a bet with hands that beat ours in this position, but can possibly bet with hands we might beat, garnering additional earned bets.
Using pokerstove I see Hero's hand has poor equity against Villain's assumed range (only 25%), is it too early to suppose such a range for this villain? Sorry for the book to read, just trying to be as detailed as possible in this hand.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from Flop Turn River Poker Strategy Forum | Online Texas Holdem Reviews Strategies Tools & Bonus Guide
UTG+1 ($0.94)
Hero (MP1) ($2.66)
MP2 ($2.09)
MP3 ($5.03)
CO ($0.80)
Villain 1 (Button) ($4.96)
Villain 2 (SB) ($2.46)
BB ($2.33)
UTG ($1.59)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A:c:, K:d:
2 folds, Hero bets $0.08, 3 folds, Villain 1 calls $0.08, Villain 2 calls $0.07, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.26) Q:c:, 10:d:, J:d: (3 players)
Villain 2 bets $0.08, Hero raises to $0.26, Villain 1 calls $0.26, Villain 2 calls $0.18
Turn: ($1.04) 10:s: (3 players)
Villain 2 checks, Hero bets $0.78, Villain 1 calls $0.78, 1 fold
River: ($2.60) Q:s: (2 players)
Hero?
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check/fold sounds about right
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The chance that at least one of them has at least a T or a Q are so high that this is a clear check/fold, although *occasionally* you might be surprised what people can possibly show up with at 2NL. Doesn't happen often enough to put even $0.10 in the pot though.
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Why did Villain only call the Turn bet? Surely he can see that there is a straight on the board? If he had completed his full house by the Turn wouldn't he go all-in? Or, if he had two pair he would also go all-in as a semi-bluff?
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check/fold river obviously. brutal board nothing you can do