ensign_lee's Quest to be Better Than a Coinflip Week 4

YTD: 17-22-1
Units Won: -9.8

I'm failing pretty hard in my quest to be better than a coinflip so far. Might be a good fade. :(

Nevertheless, here's what I've got on deck this week.

Browns M/L (+124
2 units at Matchbook
Browns +3 (-112)
1 unit at Matchbook
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Just following the line move. Everyone bets on Cin. My first instinct was WOAH that line looks sweet. But the line goes from +3 to +2.5. Hmm...

Atlanta Falcons -6.5 (-105)
3 units at Matchbook

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West Coast team going to an East Coast team for the early game, plus Ace-Ace recommendation.

Straddle
DET +7.5, UNDER 23 (+272)
2.86 units to win 7.78 units at Skybook

GB -7.5, OVER 23 (+268)
2.86 units to win 7.67 units at BetPhoenix
~~~

Houston Texans -3 (-120)
2 units at BetTrojan

Me being a homer might make this play a bit bigger than it should be. But I hoping that the raiders offense won't be able to exploit the lack of pass defense for the Texans. And we're actually pretty damn good at stopping the run. Hopefully, our offense can back us up and win this game.

Pittsburgh -2.5 (-104)
1 unit at Matchbook

Carolina Panthers +13.5 (-113)
1 unit at Matchbook

Bills M/L (+240)
1 unit at Matchbook

Jags +7 (-112)
1 unit at Matchbook

Adding to my Cleveland position 2 units, making it a 4 unit bet.

I don't know what's going on, but the line just keeps falling. Seems like the books are trying to entice Cincinnati money?

San Diego -2.5 (-132) second half
To Win 4.65 units

How much does a unit represent?

Unit = 1% of my bankroll.

Bob's overachieving Lions converting 3rd and goal from the 21 to end the first half and score a TD cost me like 10.3 units, aka as $2600. (@^*@%&@*^%@&%@&^#%&*#%#&^%#

oh snap

I like this straddle bet idea, but it's failing epically so far.

At least you won betting on the Browns and Texans! Rarity in itself

Ed explain a middle to me real quick

A&M/Arky line opened at 8.5 (-105) and I took A&M, now it's at 6.5 (-105) and say I bet the same on Arkansas. If I bet the middle I'd bet hoping for a 7 or 8 point Arkansas win and all the other times do I just lose the vig?

Spenda - exactly.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by swiggidy

I like this straddle bet idea, but it's failing epically so far.

At least you won betting on the Browns and Texans! Rarity in itself

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Yeah, it did really well for me last year, but this year is burning a hole through my bankroll. Oof. 20% of my bankroll, GONE.

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the A&M/Arkansas line is -5.5 now, I pretty much have to middle at his rate don't I?

btw, public money is all over Arkansas (from what I've seen) and the line has dropped 3 points in 4 days, wtf?

You don't HAVE to middle. In order for a middle to be +EV, both legs of it have to be +EV as well.

You can just sit on A&M +8, which is obviously great value, if you believe that's sitll the right side.

Arkansas -5.5 does not necessarily = +ev.

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