jammin' flush draws multiway at 10nl

posted this one in my thread in blogs/operations, but i'm interested to hear what people have to say about it, so i'll post it where they'll see it. anyone who cares to see my tl;dr attempt at analysis can go to that thread. i feel posting it here will bias any discussion.


3bettor is 8/6. his range is KK+ and he obviously never folds on this flop. i know flatting 3bets OOP isn't cool, especially so when versus short stacks but at this price, and against such a strong range, i don't wanna fold. BB flatting obv helped too (BB is 41/26/0% 3bet over 29 hands)

thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($9.90)
BB ($19.84)
Hero (UTG) ($11.69)
MP ($10.13)
Button ($4.91)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8:heart:, 9:heart:
Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button raises $0.60, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.30
Flop: ($1.85) 10:diamond:, 3:heart:, Q:heart: (3 players)
BB bets $1.50, Hero raises $11.09 (All-In), Button calls $4.31 (All-In), BB's action is secret.

also, this is a full ring table, not 6max. if that makes a difference

I am interested in how to analyse the shove here. I posted a similar question in an earlier thread. To analyse the shove do we treat it like we are the villain (holding 8h9h) and he is the hero?
If so 4.31/13.47 = 32% equity req. to call. 8h9h against KK+ has 43% equity so we have equity....but, why shove? With KK+ he isn't folding here or in the future.

Dead money, equity and FE all have something to do with it. FWIW I don't shove without the Ah though since we have 0 FE vs BTN

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jyms

FWIW I don't shove without the Ah though since we have 0 FE vs BTN

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This. I'm worried about getting a call from a better flush draw from the BB and having to pray for an offsuit J by the river. I don't hate it, but would much rather get it in vs button headsup, ldo.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jyms

Dead money, equity and FE all have something to do with it. FWIW I don't shove without the Ah though since we have 0 FE vs BTN

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How is my math?

Becasue the pot has $3.15 and we are in actuality only betting $4.31 all in vs KK+ with the 44% (43.838%) Pretty much making money here with no FE on a pretty tight range estimation of KK+. We are getting the rest in vs a fish.

Edit: I answered the post you made before you changed it.

betting $4.31 to win $7.46 ($4.31+$3.15)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jyms

Edit: I answered the post you made before you changed it.

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Haha, srry mate. I realised my logic was horribly flawed when i reread it so i deleted.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jyms

betting $4.31 to win $7.46 ($4.31+$3.15)

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Ok, i dont follow, again! lol. $7.46 pot? I make it $13.47 (1.85 at flop + 2*[1.50 + 4.31] on turn), so 4.31/13.47

your right, I was just looking at the action against BTN, but BB did donk $1.85 making it sweeter. but you can't count anymore without his action recorded in the hand.

Don't you want the BB in the pot with his tp tho? Without doing the maths it feels like this would be better for your EV than trying to fold him out. When you shove he's still calling with draws better than yours anyway. If you call and the BTN shoves, which he will, then BB may easily donate to the pot with top pair. Your smallish drop in equity (when BB has a made hand and stays in the pot) should be made up for by him putting more money in, I think.

yeah that was the main consideration i had when playing the hand - whether i was better off keeping him in the pot with my draw or jamming. i thought that the fact that BU never folds means the pot is kind of too big to have a naked draw on the turn, even with position. i felt like i'd be best taking the line which gave me the most fold equity against the BB, so i could "flip" with the BU for the dead money. i'm still unsure which option i prefer taking when faced with the BB's donkbet to be honest.

fold utg, float flop

really? fold 98s in the HJ with two nits behind me?

reread ur post, id still fold. even with nits behind and fish in BB.

need stronger hand here imo with high card strength vs BB.