QQ vs super nit; Line check

Im out of position, in the SB. CO, who is 4 and 4 over 106, opens. I put him on AQ+, TT+. I don't like the way i played the hand. I think i should have 3bet PF, which prob. chases out the BB and gives me info on the villains hand; a call and im good, a shove and im fairly certain he has KK AA and i fold. Flatting like i did allows the BB to come along and i have no idea where i stand. Again, on the flop i should have bet for info. Be bets and im facing 2.8:1. If i put him on AK, TT+ i have 38% equity, if i expand that to AK, TT+, 88, 55 i have 33%. Hope im doing this right; shoving is the same as if he had shoved and i called? 3.35/7.6=.44? So i needed >44 equity to shove here?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($9.70)
Hero (SB) ($9.95)
BB ($3.90)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($10.65)
MP1 ($14.25)
MP2 ($10.15)
CO ($3.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
4 folds, CO bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets $0.50, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, CO calls $2.85 (All-In)

My $.02

Preflop i think calling is correct. Calling allows alot of the hands you beat to stay in his range. If you have played 106 hands together he knows you are not randomly 3 betting, and if he is aware of his own table image he will likely fold everything you beat with the possible exception of AK to a 3 bet. Unless for some reason we know his calling range is really wide i like your call.

On the flop I think this is a good spot to c/c because he is probably c betting his entire range here and we are ahead of alot of it. C/r doesnt make sense to me though because that allows him to play perfectly, folding everything we beat and calling with everything else.

Turn is going to be another c/c , allowing him to stick in more money with worse hands.

You turned two nice ladies into an ugly monster in this hand man.
Pre flop I'm not 3betting against a guy who's 4/4: your flat call is good; youre almost set hunting, because his opening range is probably JJ+, AQ+.
On the flop, your raise is silly. He's not calling it with worse. His sizing is nitty and suggests he wants a call. I'm guessing he wont cbet JJ, QQ, AQ, being such a nit. Especially 3way. So its a c/f for me.
Also, if you put him on a definite range pre flop, don't add hands to his range after the flop (so don't include 88 and 55 in his flop range if they weren't in his pre flop range). It defeats the object.
In short, wait for a set before you try to get blood out of the stone in a hand like this.

This doesn't make any sense to me. IF we are giving up to any tiny bet we truly are set hunting, and we defenately do not have the odds. I do not see how you got from the idea of him being really tight to being really passive. In my (admittedly very limited) experience tight short stacks are very willing to get there stack in with the few hands they do chose to play. Please correct me :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by parislad

You turned two nice ladies into an ugly monster in this hand man.
Pre flop I'm not 3betting against a guy who's 4/4: your flat call is good; youre almost set hunting, because his opening range is probably JJ+, AQ+.
On the flop, your raise is silly. He's not calling it with worse. His sizing is nitty and suggests he wants a call. I'm guessing he wont cbet JJ, QQ, AQ, being such a nit.
In short, wait for a set before you try to get blood out of the stone in a hand like this.

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silly post flop action. I like the flat preflop and you properly put him on an appropraite range with at 4/4..doesn't make much sense to me o.O

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Johnny Cashout

silly post flop action. I like the flat preflop and you properly put him on an appropraite range with at 4/4

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Ok, thanks. So solid pre flop, atrocious post. How is my math, the shove is wrong even if i have the equity, but is 44% equity required for the shove correct?

to the best of my knowledge, we need >50% equity against villain's calling range for value betting (which would be what we're doing here by shoving - we're not looking to make villain fold a hand stronger than ours)

i don't really know how to show it with numbers and equations, but i think C/C'ing is far better than shoving because i doubt he ever calls your shove with anything worse. think about that - let's say that his preflop range is 88+,AJo+,AJs+,KQs,KQo (i know that's more than 4% of hands but he's in late position, your stats of 4/4 are averaged out over 9 table positions) let's also pretend that he cbets all of that range, but only puts the rest of his stack in with top pair or better (which is very believable for someone so nitty)

if you don't understand the stuff i'm about to go into go to the beginners digest and look up "how to calculate combos.

so he cbets
88 (3), 99 (6), TT (6), JJ (6), QQ (1), KK (3), AA (6), AJ (16), AQ (8), AK (12), KQ (6)

this comes to 72 combinations of hands. and against this range you have


Board: Kd 5c 8s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.978% 45.29% 00.68% 32733 495.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 54.022% 53.34% 00.68% 38547 495.00 { QdQh }

54% equity. definitely enough for a call. especially if you think your opponent isn't going to try to bluff you on the turn with hands that you beat (very unlikely given our opponents' playing style). so we know we have enough equity to call if that his is cbet range. it may well not be his actual range, but i'm going through this to different actions, in this case flat-calling or shoving, do to our opponent's ranges. now look what happens to the range we are up against when we shove:


Board: Kd 5c 8s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 93.114% 93.11% 00.00% 27655 0.00 { KK+, 88, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 06.886% 06.89% 00.00% 2045 0.00 { QdQh }

we're in deep shit and we definitely want to avoid putting money in the pot against this range (which is exactly what we're doing by shoving). let's see what happens if he does start calling us with a little worse than top pair:

QQ and JJ added to calling range:

Board: Kd 5c 8s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.209% 76.86% 01.35% 28153 495.00 { JJ+, 88, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 21.791% 20.44% 01.35% 7487 495.00 { QdQh }

+ TT and 99

Board: Kd 5c 8s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.307% 60.29% 01.02% 29245 495.00 { 88+, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 38.693% 37.67% 01.02% 18275 495.00 { QdQh

he's never calling us down with just ace high, so this is the best we ever get our money in (99 is the lowest one pair hand in his range) and we still can see a definite equity disparity.

for these reasons i think calling is far better than going all in, and a case could be made for folding (if, for example, we know that villain never bets without top pair). the point is to think about your opponents range, and think about how your actions influence that range. and how you can use that to help you. hope this helps.

tl;dr ldo

how to make nit fold everything we're ahead of and nothing we're behind ITT.

FWIW at FR, a 13/11 can easily be 4/4 over 100 hands of being card dead.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mr. Bucket

I do not see how you got from the idea of him being really tight to being really passive

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People can be tight and passive. These players pretty much only go in with hands theyre sure of winning with. So, for example, say the guy has AQ/JJ/QQ and a K drops on the flop, he curses his luck and locks down. He wouldn't cbet.
I'm not saying he's definitely one of these players, but even if he isn't - if he's more tight/aggressive - his bet sizing as a short stack suggests he wants a call. Raising certainly doesn't accomplish anything.

why are we doing math at all, CO is super short. just ship preflop.