25NL - QQ on paired board

Villain is 27/18 over 60 hands. My analysis is below, please let me know what you think.


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($80.31)
UTG+1 ($26.24)
CO ($46.99)
Hero ($25)
SB ($43.13)
BB ($29.16)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BTN :qc: :qh:
2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: :9d: :6d: :9h: ($1.85, 2 players)
CO bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: :7h: ($4.85, 2 players)
CO bets $3, Hero calls $3

River: :kh: ($10.85, 2 players)
CO bets $7, $7 to Hero ($19.75)?


Preflop: I think he's raising opening here with broadways, pairs and some suited connectors. I think he'd only continue to a 3bet with AK, KK+, so I flat in position. Range is something like {A9+, K9s+, KTo+, QT+, JT, 22+, 54s-T9s}

Flop: I think he cbets with air but also with his nines, and maybe his pairs tens and above. I feel like he'd check missed pockets and sixes. So his range is like {A9+, K9s+, KTo+, QT+, JT, 66, 99, TT+, 54s, 87-T9s}

Obviously against a range with so much air I can easily call. I think if I raise here I'm putting myself against a range that largely beats me, so I again opt to smooth call.

Turn: He bets out again, I'm starting to wait his range more towards value. Nines and TT+, basically. {66, 99+, A9, K9s, 98s, T9s}. I've got 37.5% equity and I only need like 27% to call due to the size of his bet, so once again I flat.

River: Now the king comes and the flush completes. He pauses for a couple of seconds then bets out. I pretty much tend to take that to mean he's betting nines, KK and AA here. Nothing I beat, so seems like a fold.

i agree with the fold, id probably give him a wider range there in the CO including things like J9s and T8s, Axs, so basically he has more straights and more BFDs that he was barrelling that got there on the river. But yea, i know its a tough laydown but i think its one you have to make. Do you have any reads about him bluffing missed draws, because some people could take this line with diamonds, or turn a 6x or 78s into a bluff. Idk i agree though muck it up

Do you feel there's anything wrong with the fact you played these queens ultra-passively?

I think you may be afraid of 3betting queens because your 3betting range isn't very wide. Had your 3betting range been wider, his calling/continuing range would become wider. Queens should be a hand you should be rather comfortable 3betting CO vs. BU.

Btw, do we have any idea how he responds to 3bets? I feel you gave him a sort of auto-range.

Also, you gave no indication as to how villain plays post-flop. It's quite hard to make any sort of decision without any postflop reads.

I think we should be 3betting pre for value here and I don't think it's close. What range do you 3bet? QQ has should be part of our 3bet value range. If you're not 3betting QQ then it's very likely that your 3bet value range is too tight or maybe your 3bet range may be too skewed towards bluffs.

You only have 60 hands on the villain and you can hardly draw any conclusions on how he plays in against 3bets over 60 hands. I think you're giving too much credit to what villain will be playing against a 3bet here. If you're facing a nitty UTG raiser who's shown that he only continues w/ AK, QQ+ or nitty early position opener FR, then 3betting QQ could be thin. But against a relative unknown, we should raise pre for value here always.

Post-flop, you've kept his range wide and there's plenty of hands in the villain's range that can call you with worse. Flop call is fine, but we could also raise for value here. I think we can raise/call a shove on the turn with the amount of draws on the board that may be shoving or calling. It's tough though without knowing his bet sizing tendencies. I wouldn't weight his hand too heavily on 9's or big pairs because he bet ~60% pot when there's tons of draws out there when he could have bet much larger and still expect to be called (and he'd probably bet bigger because he'd be afraid of being out-drawn).

As played, river's tough. I'd probably fold readless.

Pre: Defo disagree that his range for continuing to a tree bet is gonna be this tight. Unless you have some sorta reason to believe this, like an ultra high fold to 3 bet over a good sample then you can expect a guy like this to come a long with a much wider range including stuff like 99 TT JJ AQ, maybe even other broadways. The gap between vpipand pfr is generally a sign of a villain being too passive and stationy so I'd 3-bet for value here very happily and expect to get called by a lot worse.

Flop: Yeah flatting here is going to be fine. Raising for value and getting it in is likely not horrible, but you wont be in amazing shape vs his continuing range and without a read of what he's likely to continue with (i.e 88? 6x?) It's probably better to flat and keep his weaker hands in. I wouldn't assume this player's actually thinking enough to check back all pocket pairs lower than 99, they could well be in his c beting range aswell.

Turn - Again, I wouldn't make his range this tight. This bet sizing is pretty weak looking on a drawy board and I'd expect most villains like this guy to blast strong overpairs and maybe even 9x harder to protect or whatever. Raising the turn, however, looks super strong and again without knowing how stationy he is, flatting is likely better and defo still +EV.

River - Meh, just fold now. Like you say he defo has all 9x, flushes, KK AA, maybe even AK KQ sometimes, although passive tards like to check rivers in these spots. Can't assume this guy's just blasting off 3 here unless he's aggro or bluffy etc.