25NL AK against tight villain

Villain is 13/13 over 80 hands, seems fairly boring here. Repping kinda thinly on the river but I don't see what calls two streets and then bluffs like that here.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($25.90)
UTG+1 ($22.25)
CO ($28.79)
Hero ($29.45)
SB ($30.08)
BB ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BTN :ah: :ks:
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: :th: :3d: :jd: ($1.60, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls $1

Turn: :2c: ($3.60, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB calls $2.25

River: :qd: ($8.10, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.25, BB raises to $14.50, $10.25 to Hero ($21.2)?

Preflop: Out of the blinds here I expect villain to really only be calling with pairs and some decent broadways: {22-QQ, ATs+, AJo+, KJs+, KQ, QJs}

Flop: I cbet here expecting to have to double barrel to fold out missed pockets and hands like AT. Thoughts? (I should prolly cbet larger if I'm expecting double barrel to be profitable). I expect him to raise KdQd and AdQd here.

Turn: When he calls my bet here I'm thinking his range is fairly tight, like {AdTd, AJ, KJs, QJs, QQ, TT, 33, 22} dunno if he doesn't raise the sets.

River: I river the nut straight, but the flush comes in as well. I bet out expecting to get flats from sets and probably two-pair hands. When he raises, I really don't get it. I mean I feel like he's only raising as a bluff or with a flush here, but most of what he's got in his range has some showdown value, and the only flush in his range is like AdTd. Does he raise here with QQ? Still pretty thin ranges.

why fire the turn, kiwi?

fwiw by BU steals are being flatted by nits with 43s-T9s on the BB at least some of the time at 10nl. not sure if that's the case at 25.

I'd check back the turn and call some river bets on blanks depending on sizing and timing. You can bet the turn for value vs his draws, but he's probably never folding any of the made hand range he calls the flop with (Js and Ts) so you're bet wont be + EV on it's own and I don't like tripling here at all.

As for the river, this guy is likely never raising you without at least AK (highly discounted pre) and maybe not even without a flush. For this reason I'd b/f bigger since 2 pair and even Qx is just not folding this river for a bet of like 6.5. We can still fold to a shove since we'll just have such little equity vs his shoving range.

I think turn is a pretty clear bet after he bets so small on the flop(range manipulationaments). Anyway as played I'd probably pot the river since the Q makes a decent amount of 2pairs and shit but you have the easiest fold to a raise ever probably since nobody ever ever is capable of bluffing here @ 25nl or they wouldn't be stuck @ 25nl

I reckon someone like this should at least have T9s in his pf range in this spot at this level, probably going down to 78s for a 3x steal, depending on your image.

I'd bet river harder and fold if raised

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kmind

I'd bet river harder and fold if raised

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^^^this

Cool, thanks guys.

Carrotman: you don't reckon he flats flop with missed pockets?

not that you were asking me, but i don't think he does. not OOP. were the board say T24 i could see villains flatting 66-99 some of the time. but on TJx i can't see him C/Cing oop with say 77 or 88 (hence i feel we have little FE and i don't think barreling the turn is a great idea).

as for the river, i think v-betting about $6-$6.5 with intentions of folding is the plan. there are 9 possible sets if he 3bets QQ pre. as you dont have the Ad (or any significant flush-blocking diamond) i imagine these would be hugely outweighed by flushes in his C/R'ing range, that's if he even C/Raises sets on this river at all (which i think is pretty retarded compared to C/Raising the turn or flop)

I don't think we're c betting this flop so small that he is flatting too many PPs,even though it's a little smaller than standard. Not sure it manipulates his range enough that we have any real FE on the turn. It's concievable he peels 88 99 sometimes, but a nitty guy like this is likely just auto folding in these spots even with a slightly smaller c bet. Even if he does flat with his best underpairs, the combos of Jx and Tx are still going to out weight these since he has JTs T9s QJs AJo ATs etc. That said I don't think a turn bet is terrible given there are also draws he's flatting with again that we're doing well against. I like the merit of being able to bluff catch with the nut A high here on the river though since he'll probably not be value betting at all thinly.

imo opinion checking back flop>betting flop small-ish and betting turn like 3/4 PSB>>>betting flop this size and giving up on the turn.

i agree that river is a super ldo bet bigger.