TPTK facing Overbet on River

Posted this in IRC, it's quite an interesting hand.

Villein is 47/18 over 17 hands, don't think he is very good. Turn raise needs to be larger obviously, what do we think about the river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($10)
MP ($23.78)
CO ($15.32)
Button ($33.19)
SB ($12.92)
Hero (BB) ($20.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q:club:, A:diamond:
4 folds, SB calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.92) Q:spade:, 2:club:, 10:spade: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.32) 4:diamond: (2 players)
SB bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1.75, SB calls $1.35

River: ($5.82) J:diamond: (2 players)
SB bets $10.05 (All-In), Hero thinks

Total pot: $5.82 | Rake: $0.28

He would have to be bluffing here a fair bit to make this call profitable. The only hand he might do this with that you beat is KQ and on a board like this, I haven't seen too many 10nl'ers shove with TPGK.

89, QJ, QT, TJ are all in his range. Its likely he would raise AK pre unless he thought it was a good spot to limp as a trap (which it isnt). He could also be getting sneaky with KK and AA which still beat you.

You beat a busted FD and any other hand he decides to bluff here. With only 17 hands on him and little reads, I fold.

This is pretty weird. obvi turn raise should be larger. I looked at this for a while and the only hands that rly makes sense to me are busted fd's, maayybe Q 2pairs (qj ,qt) (i doubt hes betting the turn that small with tp on this board tho, and uve got a blocker), 89, and like 44. i guess this could be ak sometimes, idk.. when he bets the turn like that its a draw so often. whats his agg?

I can't really give any solid input here, but I'm interested to see what others have to say. Personally I fold this, I think it might be 22, but I guess it could be a busted fd. I dunno, I think the first response sums it up for me, we have to catch a weaker hand twice every three hands to make this a profitable call, and I'm not sure we can make that guarantee. I see this kind of thing a lot at 2nl and I normally just fold unless it's an uberdonk or someone who's being rather aggressive a little too much, but I might be making a mistake.

I'm gonna keep an eye on this thread...

47/18? lol he has 24s.

Seriously though, in my experience this is like always a fold at 10nl.

My two cents, grain of salt required:

He's got a super wide range preflop, obviously. I think he check/calls your flop bet with a bunch of shit, basically any kind of draw and any pair.

When he then donk leads the turn, I tend to think of his range as being made up mostly of draws (flush draws, AK, KJ, J9, 89) trying to see a cheap river card, or retarded shit like 44, honestly maybe even 42s that has just hit big and so he's value betting. I think it's not unlikely that he then flats your bet with that whole range, the draws 'cause he ldo wants to hit, the value hands 'cause he doesn't want to chase you out.

When he open shoves river I'm pretty much thinking he's hit his gutterball or he's like "flush didn't come in, my 44 is good, yippee"

So yeah, I fold river here even if we're getting bluffed a small amount of the time. Also I make it $0.50 preflop and raise the turn probably at least $0.50 bigger than you did.

Yeah I Agree Kiwi that I need to raise turn bigger ($2.40 seems good) and can make it 5-6BB pre flop. We need 38% equity vs his range to make this call. Preflop I think he might have limp folded once in the SB but it's too small a sample to mean anything.

So I think his range pre doesn't include hands like AK/AQ/AJ/KQ and 99+ as he'll probably raise or limp/reraise them almost always. Hands like small PP's, weak broadways and most SC's up to 2 gappers along with random suited paint (eg K8s) make up most of his range.

Flop bet is for value expecting to be called by worse Qx Tx 2x, bare flush draws + OESD + random gut shots, hands like 66-99 might peel one street as well. Plan is to value bet 3 streets unless the board runs out terribad.

Turn is a blank and he leads for 4BB, imo this sizing heavily weights his range towards draws that he is trying to see a river with for cheap and weak one pair hands like 2x Tx and 77-99, I think we can discount QT 22 and 44 as they wouldn't bet this small (assumption)/they would raise the flop + with Qx he's probably thinking he has the best hand so would lead bigger or c/c again. 42s might take this line.

So when he calls my raise I think his range is still draws and some good Tx and 42s. River is a card that often give some of his straight draws a pair (J8, J9, KJ) so it's time to get more value. He shoves which I think means he either has a hand he considers the nuts or a missed flush draw, not hands like KQ/KJ or 42s.

I think his value range looks like K9, 98 and JT so that's 40 combo's though you could argue that he doesn't have all possible combo's of the Gutshots since he gives up some of the time. Lets figure out how many busted flush draws he needs to be shoving for us to call.

Including every fd possible we have 52% equity, if he's shoving 28 combo's of busted flush draws we can call. Problem is that's a hell of a lot bluffs in his range especially with so few hands on him, plus he could be playing 44 weird.

So I guess it's a fold right?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kiwiMark

My two cents, grain of salt required:

He's got a super wide range preflop, obviously. I think he check/calls your flop bet with a bunch of shit, basically any kind of draw and any pair.

When he then donk leads the turn, I tend to think of his range as being made up mostly of draws (flush draws, AK, KJ, J9, 89) trying to see a cheap river card, or retarded shit like 44, honestly maybe even 42s that has just hit big and so he's value betting. I think it's not unlikely that he then flats your bet with that whole range, the draws 'cause he ldo wants to hit, the value hands 'cause he doesn't want to chase you out.

When he open shoves river I'm pretty much thinking he's hit his gutterball or he's like "flush didn't come in, my 44 is good, yippee"

So yeah, I fold river here even if we're getting bluffed a small amount of the time. Also I make it $0.50 preflop and raise the turn probably at least $0.50 bigger than you did.

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Pretty awesome post.

oh and fwiw he probably has a straight like 80% of the time here or something retarded like that

I like your analysis HoopyDude. I agree that there are quite a few bluffs there but I'd be more inclined to call on this basis a 47/36 player than a 47/18.
As with Monsieur Shat (chat, sorry) in my experience these river overbets from pasive players are nearly always strong (at 10NL).

Looks like a relatively easy fold to me (easy decision wise, maybe not emotionally!).

All you have is a pair. Why would I want to call 100 BB with just a pair unless I have good reason to think my opp is full of it ?


Hands that beat you:

AK (very unlikely)
AA (")
KK (")
K9
98
QJ
QT
Q4(unlikely)
Q2(unlikely)
2T(unlikely)
24(unlikely)
T4(unlikely)
T2 (unlikely)
TJ
TJ
Set of Qs (very unlikely)
Set of Ts (")
Set of Js (")
Set of 2's
Set of 4's




Hands you beat

a broken flush draw (spades or maybe even diamonds)
a busted straight draw J9, KJ
QK
Q-unpaired card
a few trashier hands (T-unpaired card)

The hands you beat is a small list and really don't match his play. He could either check call or make a smallish defensive bet with everything above except a completely busted draw of which there are very few.


Fold.