AQo in mp,hit middle pair

Villain is 58/23/62afq over a tiny 30 hands.Not giving villain credit for the tiny sample I give him a range of 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($1.18)
CO ($1.97)
Button ($4.22)
SB ($1.99)
BB ($3.70)
UTG ($0.45)
UTG+1 ($2)
Hero (MP1) ($2.21)
MP2 ($4.50)

Plan...
Raise from MP because(as we've recently learned)AQo crushes most ranges and with any luck we'll be HU going to the flop.Villains min 3bet makes it tricky(3bet 0/7 tho I didn't know that then[note-need to work on HUD])but narrows it down a bit so...99+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J9s+, T6s+, 96s+, A2o+, KTo+, Q7o+, J8o+, T9o+, 98o.Still crushing at about 65%.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with :ad:, :qc:
2 folds, Hero bets $0.08, 4 folds, SB raises to $0.16, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.08

MPTK,lose a little equity but still ahead w/60% so start betting.

Flop: ($0.34) :qh:, :jc:, :kc: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30

Turn picks up a flushdraw but completes any of villains flushdraws tho it actually increases our equity to 64%.However this is where we get lost.How many combos can we eliminate now w/ a flush draw on the board.
Turn: ($0.94) :2c: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero???


[note-originally posted in davens planning hands thread.If you haven't already read it,you should]

If you really think hes 3betting you this wide then 4bet for value.

This is rare though, like...if u havent seen him 3bet yet...and now he does it...it doesnt really matter that hes a 58/23 or whatever...cuz if he was such a nazi 3better and 3betting like 30% of hands (or whatever that is) then u'd have seen him do this once or twice before now.

Something that might help u is considering how often this player has called raises from the blinds.

Ok anyway

Flop: Think past where you were preflop. What hands do you get value from by betting? Which do u put more money in when behind? How likely is it villain has either side of the coin? Now act on that. For instance, even if A2o was in his range pre, its probably not in his flop calling range.

Turn: Same thing.

As to questions about planning, theres two ways to go about improving it.

1) experience
2) study

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

1) experience
2) study

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^ this, also, responding to posted hands with your reasoning is great for improving all around. If your thoughts are good, you'll get this re-enforced, if they are flawed you;ll get told (pre-requisite 1 - thick skin!)

So with such a small sample do we have to assume he's only doing this w/AA,KK,AK,which I guess is a clear fold pre cuz we have 23.5% eq and are only getting 3:1 on our money?Or from the info we do have can we assume he's wider w/like JJ+ and broadways,which skyrocket us back up to 54%?

I'd say it's pretty safe to say he's never doing this with hands you are beating preflop. On the off chance he does this with broadways then you're still totally screwed on the flop since the most likely broadways he would have in this spot are all now 2pair and thus causing your bet to be spewy. It's hard to get away from min 3bs preflop but if you do call I'd be trying to get to SD as cheaply as possible unless you flop the nuts.

You gotta balance the fact that hes super loose with how often you expect ppl to be 3betting and min 3betting from the blinds vs a btn raise.

Its definitely a lot wider than AK, QQ+...but its definitely a lot tighter than what you originally gave him ya? How much wider or tighter is kinda up in the air cuz of sample size. We can likely assume that theres a good number of worse aces in there though as well as worse queens as well as hands thatll stack off when we hit a flush/straight/twopair/trips/draw kinda thing. So calling is definitely good. 4betting? Its hard to say. Probably not a good plan since he'll fold many hands we get value from and we'll also occasionally end up folding the best hand if he were to 5bet AJ or something.