10nl Thin Value (Though process crit)

What's up guys? I recently moved up to 10nl and have played about 9k hands things are going fairly well. My winnings aren't great but are there, although I feel what I'm learning is much more important then that. Particularly I've been trying to practice my hand planning, reading and value betting.

Anyway here's a hand I played today and would love some critique on my thought process and advice on what line to take next.

Villain is weakish tight running 12/6 over about 30 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($7)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($7.65)
Hero (MP1) ($10.66)
MP2 ($10.78)
CO ($13.73)
Button ($5.62)
SB ($1.76)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A:spade:, K:heart:
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.50, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.40

The villian open limps pre he is limping 6% of hands 12vipi-6pfr = 6
seeing as we feel he will raise TT+,AJs+,AJo+,KQs we can range him on 99-22,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s. So we isolate to 5xbb

Flop: ($1.15) K:diamond:, 10:club:, Q:spade: (2 players)
UTG+1 checks,Hero ????

This is a great flop for us we have TPTK and the board isn't very coordinated his check doesn't change our original range of 99-22,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s he could only have a backdoor FD and a gutshot SD at best. Stove gives us 91.450% Equity against his range.

We are C-betting this villain's range against this board almost all the time even if we miss.

So do we Cbet this hand? villain folds done and dusted? or would that be turning our made hand into a bluff? or could we weak Cbet in the hope his floats us with his draw or under pair for an extra street of value?

Analysis-wise I think you do a good job. A couple issues though.

1) His range is probably not exactly what you have listed and certainly could include hands like JTs, QJs, KJs so remember to take things that like into consideration. 6% on poker stove doesn't necessarily = 6% from any given player.

2) This is a good board for you, however, given the range that you originally gave there is almost no chance you are getting called when you bet, which brings us back to the point of adding those other hands into his range. I'd say it's safe to assume that he will be calling with all Ks some Qs and Ts especially if those hands also have a straight draw. So yes, you are cbetting as a value bet because you are ahead of almost his entire range if not all of it.

3) If he folds you have not turned your made hand into a bluff. It just means that the villain could have been holding the worst part of the range you gave him and thus deemed it time to fold. You still picked up the money, you still would have gotten value from other parts of his range so the bet was correct. Just because a villain folds in a hand does not mean that they either have the nuts or air.

what donachello said, and just to follow up on the range thing, i think the range you gave him + AT KJ KT QJ QT JT and sometimes AJ are all still part of his range

If you're putting him on predominantly lower pairs, I doubt you're getting much value from him (hoping to induce a bet) on the turn if we check behind considering the flop texture. If he's limp/calling QJ and JT, then you may be able to get two streets of value and stack him if a J falls and he overplays 2 pair on a board like this. I'd bet like .90 and hope he comes along with his draw, then fire any brick turn card.

Tricky flop to maximize.

IP I don't mind a check here to hope he stabs at the pot and turns his small pair into a bluff. It also gives us a chance to catch up from the part of his range that is smashing us right now. I bomb the turn if checked to or just call then turn and river...unless silly cards pop off.

Thanks guys for taking the time to reply, you cleared that up for me really well :)

Assuming your range is correct inducing a bluff does seem like the best way to extract some value imo. (like outlaw said)

FWIW most of my comments below are based on the premise that your range is too narrow.


This is an interesting situation because on the one hand you don't want to give free cards to any draws but on the other hand it's such a rich board you could be very bad shape. Desptite the scary nature of the board I'd be inclined to make a CB here on the flop. I will look to my opp reaction as information as to how to proceed. I am very open to the possibility that I might need to fold this hand.


I think the hand that most likely calls here is a pair and OESD -- middle strength/likelihood hand. I put weaker Ax hands as an additional group we beat. Then of course we are behind, straights, sets and two pair type hands. If he has a small pocket pair we not going to make any more money on this hand by checking, but we could lose more if he hits a set. We have a similar situation with hands like T9s.





If we get called on the flop I think we need to check the turn unless our hand improves. Where improving means an K or a J but not an A. We need to practice pot control on this hand no need to go broke here.


Finally I noticed you didn't have any suited Ace hands in your opps range, can you comment on that ?

A comment here on inducing a bluff. I don't know what kind of thought processes you might ascribe to your opp, but if it's me I'm thinking that flop connects extremely well to your PFR range.

If you check the flop I'm as likely to think you are trapping as genuinely scared. You could have a hand like 99 or 88 but almost everything else connects well and there are more than a few monsters. There is no chance that I'm going to try to make Turn pure bluff that board. ZERO! I might be willing to make a controlled semibluff with a hand like J + pair type hand on the turn. I'd be more likely to just take the free card. I'm certainly not leading into you with air !

bet flop, lots of pair + straight draw possibilities(you also didn't mention what he does w/ TJ/QJ...wonder why? also even if you had his range right you want to c-betting 100% v this villain since he seems so weak tight and is probably never stabbing like ever. Giving someone free cards who isn't going to give us bets on later streets is pretty silly.

@ dona, your pretty much exactly right.

@ everyone who agreed with checking, do you seriously think a random 12/6 is gonna even give us one more bet on a board or KQT rather then try to get to showdown w/ some pair or even very likely just give up if he had like 87s.

@ shallam why do you want to pot control the turn when once he calls flop it's probably pair + straight draws...it would be better to bet flop, bet turn check river then to bet flop, check turn, bet river.
Also can you explain what a "controlled semibluff" is.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

bet flop, lots of pair + straight draw possibilities(you also didn't mention what he does w/ TJ/QJ...wonder why? also even if you had his range right you want to c-betting 100% v this villain since he seems so weak tight and is probably never stabbing like ever. Giving someone free cards who isn't going to give us bets on later streets is pretty silly.

@ dona, your pretty much exactly right.

@ everyone who agreed with checking, do you seriously think a random 12/6 is gonna even give us one more bet on a board or KQT rather then try to get to showdown w/ some pair or even very likely just give up if he had like 87s.

@ shallam why do you want to pot control the turn when once he calls flop it's probably pair + straight draws...it would be better to bet flop, bet turn check river then to bet flop, check turn, bet river.
Also can you explain what a "controlled semibluff" is.

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facepalm\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\put villain on a goddamn range and if it's accurate you'll see that like pocket jacks and AQ are like the only hands we get value from when we bet. Small pocket pairs have like no equity against us and we're only going to get much action when we're beat. When we bet against this guy we're mainly just getting worse hands to fold. We bet when more worse hands will call than better hands, and we bet when more better hands will fold than call. Very few worse hands are calling a cbet here, and better hands are like never folding........................