BB,top 2,raised on river

Villain is 28/10/56 over 72 hands.I'm not sure how wide of a range to put him because I think he's limping in the SB with alot of crap.I hit top two,bet tiny pot expecting a fold but get a "yippee!" call.The turns not scary but I don't want to run him of now so 1/2 pot seemed right.The raise on the river is a head scratcher.Could be tpgk,top 2 or a str8.

I orignally gave him far too wide of a range in pokerstove and came out w/93% equity.Took out a bunch of K,Q,J hands and still have 86%.So if it's a call on the river it's a shove,right?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($1.81)
UTG ($3.70)
Button ($4.16)
SB ($5.93)

Preflop: Hero is BB with :9s:, :jd:
1 fold, Button calls $0.02, SB calls $0.01, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.06) :5c:, :js:, :9h: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.04, Button calls $0.04, 1 fold

Turn: ($0.14) :4c: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.08, Button calls $0.08

River: ($0.30) :ks: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.22, Button raises to $0.96, Hero???

Total pot: $0.74

pot the flop, turn, and river, we need to build a pot soon here because it's an unraised pot so we have to try extra hard to get value from our hand ;). As played calling isn't bad if you have some type of read that he has no idea what he's doing (you should know if he spazzes out here after 72 hands). I think it's defo a std fold against anyone who has any idea about what they're doing. The only reason why this is somewhat close is because it's 2nl imo..

Why is this a standard fold? I would call this raise. You need to call .74 to win 1.48, which is exactly 2:1. So you need to be good here 33% of the time.

As a stab, I'd put his value range for the raise at: K9s+,K5s,QTs,K9o+,K5o,QTo, which gives you 39% equity. And I'm not including any bluffs, which makes a call even more +EV. I doubt he'd show up with a set because I would expect more aggression from him on the flop or turn.

Also, even if you add 44,55,99 to his range, you still have 35% equity.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NightGizmo

Why is this a standard fold? I would call this raise. You need to call .74 to win 1.48, which is exactly 2:1. So you need to be good here 33% of the time.

As a stab, I'd put his value range for the raise at: K9s+,K5s,QTs,K9o+,K5o,QTo, which gives you 39% equity. And I'm not including any bluffs, which makes a call even more +EV. I doubt he'd show up with a set because I would expect more aggression from him on the flop or turn.

Also, even if you add 44,55,99 to his range, you still have 35% equity.

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if villain is actually has some idea of what he's doing then he shouldn't be spazzing out with too many hands that we can beat ;(

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NightGizmo

Why is this a standard fold? I would call this raise. You need to call .74 to win 1.48, which is exactly 2:1. So you need to be good here 33% of the time.

As a stab, I'd put his value range for the raise at: K9s+,K5s,QTs,K9o+,K5o,QTo, which gives you 39% equity. And I'm not including any bluffs, which makes a call even more +EV. I doubt he'd show up with a set because I would expect more aggression from him on the flop or turn.

Also, even if you add 44,55,99 to his range, you still have 35% equity.

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All of this assumes he got to the river with KT and KQ which is a butload of combos but is fairly rare he got there with them, and he raises these sometimes preflop anyway (hes kinda loose, and hes on the btn so he opens these pre alot)

IMO, this is K5 and K9 alot, and KJ and QT the rest (though discounted cuz i feel hed raise some of the latter combos). He might have 76 or T8 sometimes, but like newfish said you should have an idea by now of weather or not hes gonna be bluffy by now. He can also have sets alot too so i mean...its pretty hard to find hands we beat that make sense here besides 54.

If you can put enough busted gutters and 54 in his range, then i guess i probably call...but otherwise there arent many hands that see you bet three streets and feel comfortable getting it in.

Edit: also ya, you should be potting the flop, and near potting the turn.

Ive gone over the hand a bit more and I have to agree w/JKDS and Newfish.I made a rookie error in not narrowing villains range down on the river using his table image.Most of the hands I have on him are from a previous session and the HUD wasn't enough to gain info here.Looking at his stats shows he's only raised on the river once,doesn't look like a spaz and is prolly a bit more conservative then I gave him credit for.

Edit:Agree w/ flop and turn bet being too small now that I've looked at the hand again.Giving villain any odds here would be a bad idea.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

All of this assumes he got to the river with KT and KQ which is a butload of combos but is fairly rare he got there with them, and he raises these sometimes preflop anyway (hes kinda loose, and hes on the btn so he opens these pre alot)

IMO, this is K5 and K9 alot, and KJ and QT the rest (though discounted cuz i feel hed raise some of the latter combos). He might have 76 or T8 sometimes, but like newfish said you should have an idea by now of weather or not hes gonna be bluffy by now. He can also have sets alot too so i mean...its pretty hard to find hands we beat that make sense here besides 54.

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Thanks for the explanation, that makes sense. If I discount 3/4 of the KQ/KT hands and add in a couple combos of T8/45, it drags our equity down to about 22%. You have me convinced: fold.