25NL - bottom set vs nit on wet board

Villain is an honest tighty (stats below). When he check-raises the turn, my range for him is { JJ, KK, AA, AQs, AQo}. Possibly AsKs and AdJd but I doubt it. He doesn't have 44, because he's a nit so he would have folded it on the flop. I actually want to take AA out of his range as well.

Against { KK+, JJ, AQs, AQo } I have roughly 32% equity.
Add { AsKs and AdJd } I have almost 35% equity - not much difference.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

Guess I'm just fishing for opinions on the hand and whether you think the ranges are dead on.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($30.66)
UTG+1 ($31.83)
MP1 ($22.59)
MP2 ($40.98) 13/4 over 95 hands
MP3 ($25.57)
CO ($25.45)
Hero ($23.55) taggish image
SB ($25.51)
BB ($14.27)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 9 players) Hero is BTN :th: :tc:
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: :td: :js: :kd: ($1.85, 2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $1.50, MP2 calls $1.50

Turn: :4s: ($4.85, 2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $4.75, MP2 raises to $18, Hero - Good spot to fold bottom set?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by donkfish

I need ~65% equity to make this call vs his range

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bet / bet + pot

13.25 / (13.25+18+4.75+4.85) = 32% or so. There is 3 behind that i didnt account for cuz im lazy but i dont really think we can fold.

I was going to lock this thread, but then I decided not to.

Step 0: Reload pre-flop.

Step 1: Get better at following directions: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

Step 2: A little common sense goes a long way. Why would you need to win more than half the time to call here?

Step 3: I'm not going to say that this is probably a bad beat/cooler post, but what I will say is that there seems to be a tendency in this particular sub-forum to post what basically amounts to bad beat/cooler hands, or hands that are not of much consequence (ie: how do I play flopped quads). Posting those types of hands is not increasing anyone's EV, especially the person posting them.

Step 4: As for this particular hand, it's going to be somewhat close but it's still a fairly obvious spot to get it in. In your analysis I'd suggest pretending he just shoved the turn and you're deciding between calling an all-in or folding because you're never getting away on the river if you just call here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by donkfish

I need ~65% equity to make this call vs his range (I think) so a fold here is just fine imo.

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I don't fold 51% equity at $5/$10 live.

It looks like he wanted to peel a clean turn card and get all the money in.

Sick hand.

If I play with him a lot, I probably call light here. If I don't I'm more inclined to make a pretty sick laydown.

i honestly like a fold here. the range against which you have 32% has equal weighting of AA and sets. AA being the only hands in that range against which you currently have >22% equity. i think we need to discount AA to at least some degree because a winning tight reg at 25nl probably doesnt c/c, c/jam one pair hands like this on very wet boards. i dont have stove on this computer but i imagine that incrementally removing AA combinations from his range will see a sharp drop in your equity

actually i dont mind either way. 95 hands isnt really enough to know for sure if he doesn't think tptk or an overpair is the nuts vs any opponent on any board. there is certainly a percentage of the player pool i've encountered at 10 and 25nl recently that does. in terms of EV i dont think much money is going to be exchanged either way.

Settle down Spoon, I posted the wrong number. Thank you JKDS for fixing it. EV is close on this one, but it's not the math that I had a question on anyway, it was the range that I put this dude on. I folded the hand, so bad beat or cooler, guess we'll never know. Lock the fucking thread if it will make you feel better.

I agree with spoon, but I don't mind folding the turn. The widest I would make his range is JJ, KK, AA, and maybe throw in one combo of AK, but it's rare.
Never call turn and fold river. You might as well just shove here. I don't think there is much to learn from this hand. Top of range runs into top of range. The money you make from hero folding sets is very insignificant compared to improving on more common spots.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

bet / bet + pot

13.25 / (13.25+18+4.75+4.85) = 32% or so. There is 3 behind that i didnt account for cuz im lazy but i dont really think we can fold.

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This is the same as I got. Phew.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by oskar

The money you make from hero folding sets is very insignificant compared to improving on more common spots.

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Good point, thanks Oskar. Guess I tend to level myself in the most common situations now and then.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by donkfish

Settle down Spoon, I posted the wrong number. Thank you JKDS for fixing it. EV is close on this one, but it's not the math that I had a question on anyway, it was the range that I put this dude on. I folded the hand, so bad beat or cooler, guess we'll never know. Lock the fucking thread if it will make you feel better.

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http://img682.imageshack.us/img682/8...3536614673.gif

I admit it, I lol'd.

No need to ever analyze numbers here unless you are 500BBs deep. Snap shove.

I don't think I'm folding but in no way is this a don't think snap shove.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Illfavor

I don't think I'm folding but in no way is this a don't think snap shove.

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An A 9 or diamond on the river kills the action or potentially beats you. don't give it the chance.