25NL - KK, 3bet pot, Qhi flop.

Pretty short hand. I think I made a mistake that could've been pretty easily avoided if I'd thought more about villain's range. Not expecting a whole lotta discussion, mostly just posting to beat myself up. :) That said, if you disagree with my ranges (particularly his range for flatting my 3bet, that's something I'm unsure on) please feel free to chime in.

Villain is 20/13, 100% fold to 3bet and 0% 3bet+ over a pretty small sample.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($18.65)
UTG+1 ($25.94)
Hero ($25)
BTN ($28.29)
SB ($25.10)
BB ($25.22)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is CO :kc: :kh:
UTG raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: :9d: :5d: :qc: ($6.35, 2 players)
UTG bets $2, Hero raises to $5, UTG raises to $10, Hero goes all-in $22 ...


Preflop: I think at the absolute widest villain is flatting my 3bet here with {AK, JJ+} although I dunno if he doesn't repop with AK at least.

Flop: On the flop I think he bets with QQ, KK+, and maybe AdKd. Basically the queen high flop means that jacks will be afraid to stack off and that queens have me beat, so I'm really not getting value from anything here at all when I decide to go all "HURR DURR I HAZ OVERPAIR ALL INNN".

You 3-bet a donk (note stack size) and got it in on the flop with an overpair with an SPR < 3. Seems solid.

why not have AQ in his range? you don't think he will flat you with AQs? possibly even AQo? just wondering

Arright, after chatting in IRC it seems people feel he'll flat the 3bet OOP with AQ, and he's less likely to have AA in his range when he flats pre, which in turn gives me enough equity to get stacks in on the flap.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Santo2True

why not have AQ in his range? you don't think he will flat you with AQs? possibly even AQo? just wondering

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He might, but I don't think he gay bets the flop like that without a made hand. I doubt he plays JJ, AQ or AK this way, which only leaves QQ/AA (leaning towards QQ).

i'm deff for QQ aswell, but i don't think we can discount AQ at all. just cause you wouldn't play it like this doesn't me he won't... I think AA is more likely to 4bet as well preflop, so iffy on including it, but you never know.

sometimes it is hard to really tell without any timing or any other tells other then past information on his preflop play and other stats which seem to suggest he is not the tightest of players but also not a complete maniac. You played it pretty straightforward which also leads me to believe that he also knew you were playing straightforward and either had the QQ and knew it would be hard for you to fold. If he thinks you are putting him on a hand like AQ and does have a hand then he will make this play.

My thoughts are that he does not have QQ. I think most people would raise this more in this position of course it could also be AA. making a smallish raise trying to get someone to reraise.

i'm not ecstatic about it, but i think he has AQ enough here to make it a raise/call. we can't really smooth the flop against a range of QQ,KK,AQ,AdKd because we are favourite versus the "made" part of his range:


Board: 9d 5d Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.499% 58.52% 02.98% 9269 472.50 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 38.501% 35.52% 02.98% 5626 472.50 { KK-QQ, AQs, AQo }

which is stacking off. so to not raise this flop seems like just letting him get there cheap the few times he has a flush draw/not forcing him to make a mistake with that part of his range.

you dontthink he could flat with 99-tt? i could def see a 20/13 calling 99-aa (maybe 1/2 the combos of aa, the rest 4bet), and i would only have him calling aqs, but i guess this is 6m so he could be calling aqo

if you give his flop 3b-ing range as akdd, aqs, 3 combos of aa, qq, kk....you have 36% equity
but if you add the aqo hands your equity sky rockets to 53% so clearly a lot depends on what you give him in his range.

He's a nit. Don't give nits action.

I flat the flop. If I did make a feeler raise, I'd take him for his word when he takes it to the 3rd floor.

raise is ok i guess, but not great. 4b shove is pretty bad. You already came to the right conclusion before you posted.

@ rpm, if you're gonna get optimistic with AQ in his stackoff range then you have to include AA as well. Or only include AQs, or something like that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kiwiMark

Arright, after chatting in IRC it seems people feel he'll flat the 3bet OOP with AQ, and he's less likely to have AA in his range when he flats pre, which in turn gives me enough equity to get stacks in on the flap.

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just cos he may flat AQ pre doesn't mean he'll auto-stack-off on a Q hi flop

fair call daven. i dont play 6max so i dont how much wider people's ranges are. point taken.

Wtf he isn't that much of a nit. We havce a small sample size, it's not like he actually folds to 97% of 3 bets.

I'm very happy to get it in here and not doing so would be bad. He can have other draws besides AdKd like JTs, other diamonds and may have AQ KQs also. How many hands is his fold to 3 bet stat over kiwi? I bet it's like 2 occassions or some shit like that which tells us nothing and means we make a pretty big mistake by making his postflop range tight enough that we wanna fold. I've no idea why people are giving him a lol tight range, and fwiw I think a guy like this (note stack size again and gap between vpip and pfr as indicators) is definitely felting AQ in a 3 bet pot should he call with it preflop. He's also likely to be auto 4 betting AA at least some of the time. I can't actually understand how anyone doesn't wanna felt this.

Daven - I know you play FR and all, but shit man AQ is like way more likely than AA and sticking in only AQs to balance these 2 is totally pescimistic imo.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

He's a nit. Don't give nits action. I flat the flop. If I did make a feeler raise, I'd take him for his word when he takes it to the 3rd floor.

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At 25NL full ring, they always seem to have it. I like a flat here IP as well.

this hand is 6max

I would certainly assume AQ to be in his range preflop for calling your 3bet. Now make sure you take a note of what he had when he made this weird gay bet/induce play.

Rather than thinking in terms of absolutes, you can easily factor in that villain might call with AQ by simply removing any given % of AQ hands from his range when you do your equity calcs.

The hand itself is played pretty well.

If he's a baddie I like the flop raise get it in line. If he's decent then I like a flat on the flop.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

You 3-bet a donk (note stack size) and got it in on the flop with an overpair with an SPR < 3. Seems solid.

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Yes his stack is big enough to cripple your stack.
You can't fold here

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ljove

Yes his stack is big enough to cripple your stack.
You can't fold here

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We reload after every hand that we go bellow 100 big blinds... are you high or something?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ljove

Yes his stack is big enough to cripple your stack.

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Wat.