Top 2 become bluff catcher vs TAG

Villain is 20/18 seems pretty solid, not seen anything tricky or out of line from him so far. SB is a pretty big fish calling tons pre, folding tons postflop, I'd ususally not open here.

My hand is obv a bluff catcher here since he has like no worse value hands. AQ gets there on the river if he semi bluffs turn with that and tbh I didn't expect him to continue with air on this river that much, since our range is like KQ+ given how strong his line looks etc.

Can I look this up?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($103.65)
UTG+1 Jinn_Rooh ($100)
CO CinMYEYE ($101)
BTN JAYYS ($104.65)
SB deuchler ($71.55)
BB thelaf320 ($365.15)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is UTG :jc: :kh:
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, JAYYS calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: :jd: :5s: :8c: ($9.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, JAYYS calls $6

Turn: :kc: ($21.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $13, JAYYS raises to $33, Hero calls $20

River: :ts: ($87.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, JAYYS bets $61.65, Hero?

Pretty interesting hand imo.
Dont mind the UTG open if fish in blinds prolly to wide though, even though I'd do the same.
A 20/18 has gotta figured that flop and turn are pretty standard for you to lead on. Also I would think he knows your UTR range is pretty strong. I dont think hes raising turn as a bluff. Dont you think he calls and revals River? idk.
Sure is a VBish looking River bet. Gwad I call though, just seems like JJ,88,55 here.

He gets there with lots of Jxcc hands, overs w clubs, TQ, etc too..

Note that we have the Jc. I don't think this guy is even flatting combos of QT preflop here.

I put AcJc AcTc in there, If you say not many combos of QT in his range then prob not many Axs either. Plus Im not sure if he raises those Ac hands on the turn. This obviously does not include air, which I just don't think is in his range much here.
Board: Jd 5s 8c Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.841% 11.17% 16.67% 59 88.00 { KhJc }
Hand 1: 72.159% 55.49% 16.67% 293 88.00 { JJ, 88, 55, AcJc, AcTc, KcQc, KJs, KcTc, KJo }

Why wouldn't you just shove over on the turn? His raise just screams semi-bluff so get it in good.

i may fold the turn

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Why wouldn't you just shove over on the turn? His raise just screams semi-bluff so get it in good.

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I much prefer this line, i see vill floating lots here and probably not putting KJ in villas range. tough spot river here, by calling the turn what was your plan by the river?

I don't know what I would do by this river probably cry and fold. Us calling the turn here makes us look like we have a lot of 2p, AK but by the river sizing it looks like he has all his combos of AQ, TT, JJ, KK(maybe), 55, 88 and the some bluffs failed FDraws, straights etc.

On iPad right now so can't calculate if it's +EV based on this range.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by XTR1000

i may fold the turn

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Why would you do this against anyone who isn't nitty/passive?

I shove over loose players here because they show me worse two pair hands here way too often.

I shove over anyone who's ever heard the word float because it's a dryish flop, followed by a standard two barrel card that put a ton of semi-bluffs into play. We're also out of position so flatting is going to give him a chance to play the river well.

If he has a set, I hope I suck out.

If he folds, I'm almost never showing my hand to him unless he's throwing a party and pissing him off will rescind my invitation. Let him stew. (Mostly a live thing anyway...)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Why would you do this against anyone who isn't nitty/passive?

I shove over loose players here because they show me worse two pair hands here way too often.

I shove over anyone who's ever heard the word float because it's a dryish flop, followed by a standard two barrel card that put a ton of semi-bluffs into play. We're also out of position so flatting is going to give him a chance to play the river well.

If he has a set, I hope I suck out.

If he folds, I'm almost never showing my hand to him unless he's throwing a party and pissing him off will rescind my invitation. Let him stew. (Mostly a live thing anyway...)

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I really don't see what 2 pair combos a guy like this is cold calling on the BU with preflop other than maybe KJs. Even sticking J8s in there seems kind of optimisitc vs a 20/18.

His range on the turn is likely semi bluffs and better hands. Idk whether flatting to let him bluff the river is better, I'd originally planned oncalling turn calling river, but the T allowed AQ to get there which makes up a good amount of any semi bluffs he floats the flop and riases turn with imo. Since we have Jc, there really aren't all that many combos of flush draws here. I suppose stuff like T9s are in here though and make a turn shove look better.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Idk whether flatting to let him bluff the river is better

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Do the math. I don't think it's close.

As for what sorts of hands he could have. I guess I saw too many WTF hands in spots (from "solid" players) like this to heavily discount even shit like J8s and K8s. Particularly if you've been active.

You're out of position, not sure what sort of hand he has, probably good, there is less than pot behind, stick it in.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Why would you do this against anyone who isn't nitty/passive?

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because there really arent any worse 2 pr he might flat preflop and we´re doubling KJXX dry from UTG oop, we don´t really have much of a bluffing range at all. we can also expect some % of T9, 76, QTs and whatever other weak draws there are to bluff raise the flop right away. the sizing also makes me wanna fold.