5nl hit nut straight on turn, flush comes in on the river

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($5.10)
Button ($12.55)
SB ($5.08)
BB ($3.82)
UTG ($5)
MP1 ($9.20)
MP2 ($4.86)

Preflop: Hero is CO with http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/jh.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/th.gif
3 folds, Hero bets $0.20, 1 fold, SB calls $0.18, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.60) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/qd.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/ad.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/8s.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.60) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/ks.gif (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, 1 fold, BB calls $0.60

River: ($2.40) http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...smilies/5s.gif (2 players)
BB bets $1.50, Hero?

Not a whole lot to go on. SB and BB have been in 30% of hands, but I have only 20 hands on each.

Flop, I elect not to c-bet here.
Turn, I'm thinking a raise to $1.10 seems a little better as it sets up for ~pot sized bet on river to put him all in. I'm having a hard time ranging this hand outside Qs9s, QsTs, QsJs, maybe KdJd and 2pr type hands and sets, however I'm leaning more towards drawing hands with a piece of the board cause he calls my raise and doesn't re-raise. I suppose there could be Ax in his range, but I would expect him to bet the flop.
River, In all honesty, this looks like a value bet. Now there is no way I am folding here. What I am trying to figure out is if I should shove over, he has like $1.20 left behind.

Why don't we cbet this flop?

I call. It's probably fairly close but I think it's a call.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

Why don't we cbet this flop?

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Because I'm trying not to c-bet 100%, these guys are loose (at least so far) pre, probably loose post flop and will probably call a c-bet. I think the only thing I am folding out with a c-bet is small pp's and small sc's, the chances of both of them having that is slim, so on this board, I think my c-bet gets called more often than not.

If you knew on the turn that you weren't going to fold to a 2/3 PSB on the river even if a flush comes in, you should have raised more. A pot-sized raise would have been better, around 1.20. Your raise to .90 gives him 3:1 immediate odds on his call, which means he only has to win another .90 on the river to break even (assuming he's on a flush draw with 4.5:1 odds).

But with the 1.20 raise, he is only getting 1.33:1 immediate odds, so has to win another $2.00 or so on the river to make the play profitable. Of course, the new pot would be larger, about 3.30, making that possible.

Using some Excel magic, a raise to 1.35 denies him the implied odds to make the call with a flush. He would need to win $2.50 more on the river if he makes his flush but he would only have 2.40 left in his stack. Bottom line -- I think the main problem here is the weak turn raise.

I do agree my turn raise was not enough, and I realized that right after I did it. Sometimes you should use that time button. However, I didn't think he was going to call anyways, and the only reason I was raising was to price out the draws<-- which I didn't do (oops). One of my leaks at the moment is bet sizing, when I get rushed I auto default to 3x for raises and 2/3 pot for bets, which is generally fine, but every so often it bites me in the....

I'd cbet the flop even though it's multiway as your draw isn't that great (6 clean outs) + this flop is good for your range.

Turn bet could be bigger, on the river I'd probably just call since he can be vbetting worse like KQ,Ax and also be bluffing missed diamond draws.

i'm honestly not sure whether this flop is a c-bet or not as you are never getting rid of flush or str8 draws. On the turn i would raise more as the board is super wet. On the river i make a crying call versus an unknown.

If one of the villains has 67dd in his range aren't you happy that he is calling your flop c bet? Plus the amount of flush draws they have is small since AXs makes up a large portion of their range. But, I do agree that a C bet is not best here since you might need to go for two barrels to have them drop 22-TT, which giving you hand you are not happy to do. Remember that people at this level have a very true/false thinking they either chase or they don't. Only if you really shove will they consider to not draw and even then ur be will look bluff and they might play cop.

Also, you turn raise is bad. 1.20-1.50 sound great.

!luck

1. You should definitely c-bet this flop to build a pot if you hit your double gutterball. As it is you are going to have a hard time getting the money in if you miss that street of value --- high SPR on turn = hard to get money in. Plus you have the initiative, so try and hold onto it by betting

2. As played you should definitely call. He has tons of other stuff in his range including a lot of 2 pair hands as he's flatting from the blinds with lots of broadways. A flush is in his range, but it's like the very top of his range on the river, so call.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

Why don't we cbet this flop?

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The purpose of a C-Bet is to get better hands to fold, and worse hands to call. What worse hands are calling here, and what better hands are folding (That are in his range)? Coincidentally, villain obviously fold 2 spades on flop here unless he's mental.

As played, Hero's range certainly isn't limited to flushes only. It's almost like it's a scarecard bet.

Finally Villain isn't betting enough to justify having hit. So if it IS a flush he's still losing money on the prospect. What we can do with that info? I don't know... Perhaps tend towards a call against a smart opponent for a mistake of that calibre, versus tending towards a fold for a straight-forward yet clueless player.

I think it's a call.. but only a Break Even one.

Im probably checking behind about 70% of the time and cbetting about 30%. I'll shift more towards cbetting if i have postflop reads like (passive with TP) or (slowplays strong hands) or (passive with draws) so that my cbet will be raised less often. The combined effect of having hands like Qx or 8x fold as well as building a pot for when we hit and likely getting a free river however is tempting to me...but like i said i really dont want to be raised off of a 6-8 out draw.

then again, betting might get hands like KQ and 98 to fold which would certainly pay us off if we hit one part of our draw. idk. i think its fairly close

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ragnar4

The purpose of a C-Bet is to get better hands to fold, and worse hands to call. What worse hands are calling here, and what better hands are folding (That are in his range)? Coincidentally, villain obviously fold 2 spades on flop here unless he's mental.

As played, Hero's range certainly isn't limited to flushes only. It's almost like it's a scarecard bet.

Finally Villain isn't betting enough to justify having hit. So if it IS a flush he's still losing money on the prospect. What we can do with that info? I don't know... Perhaps tend towards a call against a smart opponent for a mistake of that calibre, versus tending towards a fold for a straight-forward yet clueless player.

I think it's a call.. but only a Break Even one.

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I asked that because his only reasoning was "Flop, I elect not to c-bet here.". Against randoms with my only read of "SB and BB have been in 30% of hands, but I have only 20 hands on each." I'd check because I don't expect them to fold a queen to one shell often enough for it to be profitable. I do think that cbetting is the right play here if you have some reads or stats on postflop play, because we can easily rep an ace and get hands with more showdown value than us fold (KQ,KJ,QJ,Q10,Q9,K10,K9,PP's, random 8x sc's). We can rep a hand that will get better hands to fold, but I think it really depends on how they're playing postflop to know how to play this flop

I do agree that after we have some hands with villain(s), c-betting this flop would be profitable, however at the point of the hand I simply don't know enough about their post flop play to think it will be +EV. Which does get me thinking as to why I am raising pre here to begin with. But the definite lesson I am taking away from this hand; is bet more on the turn.

i like a cbet cos your bluff is gonna work heaps enough to be profitable, especially adding in your 6-8 outs when you miss, and even more especially adding in the second chance to hit these outs if you choose not to barrel...
turn you can raise bigger
river is close, obviously don't fold - i would base the call vs shove decision on what little info i had from the hud stats over 20 hands. Note that the flush ace not being on the board makes a flush more likely cos people like Ax sooted.

also, his not betting flop DOES NOT remove Ax hands from his range...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ragnar4

What worse hands are calling here, and what better hands are folding (That are in his range)?

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worse hands calling - weak flush draws
better hands folding - 22-TT