200nl vs weird line 150bb stacks

Guy is a 17/7 reg folds 40% to 3bets which made me 3b this time. He c/r flop about 8% total but his check twice makes no sense to me unless he slowplayed a monster.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($308.85)
SB ($55.95)
BB ($368)
UTG ($99.70)
UTG+1 ($213)
MP1 ($200)
MP2 ($497.70)
MP3 ($172.90)
CO ($134.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif
3 folds, MP2 bets $6, 2 folds, Hero raises to $18, 2 folds, MP2 calls $12

Flop: ($39) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($39) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $24, MP2 raises to $82

Hero calls to spike a straight? Jams for FE? Folds? I doubt hes ever bluffing but I don't see why he'd slowplay on this board

he may realize you almost never have a nut hand after you checked the flop. still i'd b/f the turn

To be honest I think you can check back the turn a lot here, he still has some nut hands in his range and you avoid this gay spot where you have to fold and miss drawing to 8 outs when behind. You can then obv just pick off a bluff on the river or bet when checked to, since it's pretty impossible for you to get two streets out of worse either way.

FWIW when players fold to 3bets this low I think you can still 3bet with a lot of garbage in position since they will largely be setmining so you can't really go for "thin value" or whatever with AQ. It's not like you're going to stack him with KQ on a Qxx board since he's probably still a pretty major nit at heart. If this was an LP battle and you've got an aggro image then fine but I think this is marginal preflop.

I think checking back the turn is prob the right play though conservative. Opponents who are paying attention will no you never have a nut hand in your range, but they still have a few. I know it may seem like checking back is bad here but:

a) it's a 3Bet pot, so a lot of villain's range hits this board
b) you are drawing to a nut hand IP, but right now you have a relatively weak hand
c) you have to fold to c/r's

typically people don't mess around on the turn so as played its a fold, which is why I advocate checking back.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by badgers

FWIW when players fold to 3bets this low I think you can still 3bet with a lot of garbage in position since they will largely be setmining so you can't really go for "thin value" or whatever with AQ.

---

You need such a large sample for "folds to 3bet %" to converge, and the number is far less meaningful without a 4bet%. Even over like 500 hands, he could have just been 3bet a fair bit when he had cards, which is even more likely given his low PFR%

Anyway, I can't see being good here ever, we don't have odds to draw to a gutter, implied odds aren't there vs a nit who'll shutdown on a 4-broadway board etc...

I also like checking back turn & getting your one street on the river.

he raises 7% of hands, ofc his fold to 3b is going to be low. Turn seems like a fistpump fold unless i'm missing something.