Attempt at range, $2NL 9Max against aggro player

Ok was talking to spoon last night in IRC and I said i was struggling with putting people on ranges so he said to go through my HEM hands won/lost more than 10bbs on and put them on ranges, I have 137 hands to go through and I am going to spend one hour a day (hopefully) putting people on ranges. Here is my first hand yes i know I play WANK dont judge me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($7.28)
BB ($2)
UTG ($0.94)
UTG+1 ($0.74)
MP1 ($6.16)
MP2 ($0.32)
MP3 ($1.10)
Hero (BUT) ($2)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 9:club:, 6:club:
5 folds, Hero bets $0.08, SB calls $0.07, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.18) 8:diamond:, K:spade:, 6:spade: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($0.18) 7:heart: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.12, SB raises $0.24, Hero calls $0.12
River: ($0.66) 10:spade: (2 players)
SB bets $1.73, Hero calls $1.68 (All-In)
Total pot: $4.02

Ok so he is 53/21/2.2 VPIP/PFR/Ag Factor over 44 hands. Have seen him do some stupid things, call a shove pre-flop 100bbs deep with 84o.

Pre-flop range
Called a 4x raise from SB against TAG Button.
22-99, 32s+, 42s+, 63s+, J7s+, Q7s+, K6s+, A2s-A10s, 32o+, 53o+, 85o+, K9o+, A2o-A10o.
This is my range for him pre-flop as he is capable of three betting (22.2) I have removed 1010+ and high aces, he will probably three bet more hands but if I am not sure then I am leaving them in the range. Against this range of hands I have 46.4% equity and I have position post flop so I think its a +ev open.

I checked the flop through and I think he is checking the flop with 100% of his range as I haven't seen him donk out yet. I knew he was capable of raising the flop so I checked behind as I had an ok hand.

Turn - He checked I bet around 3/4 pot and he min raised. I am putting these hands is his range, 66-99, K6-K8, 2 spades, 98-96, 109, 85-65, 54, KQ. btw I dont know how to include spades or any suit into the handrange on HEM if anyone could tell me would be appreciated.
I have 23.1% equity against that range not including spades so it is a clear fold...........

River - he open shoves and the card that makes my straight and the flush has come, now his range is 66-99, 2 spades, 98-96, 109, 54. Really the best I am hoping for is a spilt pot and with the over shove I have to be right a large amount of the time to make it profitable.

That was my first attempt at hand range so rip me to shreds, I know I play bad :sad:

Nice work on the ranges!

Couple of things about the turn. You maybe forgot A6-A8 in your range? I'm not sure how you put spades into HEM, sorry; I use PokerStove for my equity calculations, but one thing you should think about is you say "I have 23.1% equity against that range not including spades so it is a clear fold" -- including spade draws in his range on the turn will give you more equity, not less, as you're currently ahead of those.

Secondly, while you need 50% or more equity to value bet, when calling, you happily don't need anywhere near as much.

The equation is call/(pot+call) to get the amount of equity you need, making sure to include all bets on the current street in the pot. In this case, 0.12 / ( (0.18 + 0.12 + 0.24) + 0.12 ) = 18.2% equity needed.

You can see that this works because if you risk 0.12, and lose that 81.8% of the time, then that's an expected loss of $0.098 (=0.12 * 0.818). But you stand to win (0.18+0.12+0.24)= $0.54 18% of the time, so an expected gain of 0.098 (=0.54 * 0.182) which is the same as your expected loss, so if you had any more equity than that, your expected win would be greater than your expected loss.

If you don't know where I got some of the numbers from above just ask. There are also some great posts by spoonitnow floating around that might be worth searching for. "calling an all-in" or something along those lines is a good read, which does a much better job than I of explaining the concept.

Good analysis, but i think given villians line he's super unlikely to check flop with spades and then minraise you when he misses on turn, so i think you can discount some spades (other than 89-69 spades maybe).

yeh what mark said- you dont have to be ahead of more than half of villians range to justify calling. You need 33 percent equity to call a pot sized bet on the river, so even when you are behind some of the time you can call. On turn you can pot odds call the raise, as you have some equity against 1pr hands without a T (best case scenario you have about 13 outs (to hit 2pair, trips or your OESD), probs round it to 9-10 because sometimes villian will draw to a better hand when you hit your 2pr/straight).

If he's that donk i dont mind a call, but i would be pretty scared of a nut type hand showing up. I dont think it's spades that much of the time though.

"I have 23.1% equity against that range not including spades so it is a clear fold" -- including spade draws in his range on the turn will give you more equity, not less, as you're currently ahead of those.

Oh yeah, i dont know why i thought it wud take equity away :/

And I will use the calculations you wrote on my next hand analysis, which will hopefully be tomorrow before work. So if I get stuck I'll ask if thats ok kiwi :)

thanks for replys btw do appreciate it and it does help

Yup, fire away, I or somebody else is sure to answer =)

I'm glad to see you're acting on what we talked about the other day, keep it up.

If I am doing these exercises one a day I may aswell keep them all in one post.

Villian is 43/22/0 over 23 hands and has been agressive at the table so far, but not stupidly agressive.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($3.94)
BB ($1.92)
UTG ($1.82)
UTG+1 ($0.98)
MP1 ($2.06)
MP2 ($2.07)
MP3 ($0.76)
Hero (CO) ($2.03)
Button ($1.72)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 5:diamond:, 5:club:
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.07, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.07, 3 folds
Flop: ($0.17) 7:spade:, 5:heart:, 2:spade: (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.12, Hero calls $0.12
Turn: ($0.41) 6:diamond: (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.28, MP2 raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $1.84 (All-In), MP2 calls $0.59
River: ($4.09) J:club: (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $4.09 | Rake: $0.27

Pre-flop
He raised to 3x pre-flop from MP2 - 22-AA, 23s+, 53s+, T7s+, J7s+, Q7s+, K6s+, A2s+, 32o+, 64o+, J8o+, Q8o+, K9o+, A2o+.
Given a pretty wide range pre-flop going by the little stats I have and the fact that its $2NL.
Put the ranges into pokerstove this time, my equity pre-flop is 54.721% against this range, I am not sure what means though whether I should re-raise pre-flop or what but I am happy calling pre-flop with position and 55 against what I perceive to be a fish.

Flop
So far he has cbet 100% of his hands so even though it is such a small sample I am not taking any hands out of his range (is this is a mistake?)
My equity has gone up to 91.184% against the range which I gave him.

Turn
Here is where the range gets narrowed as he check raises me basically committing himself to the hand, his new turn range is 22, 66-AA, 68-98, 34, A5/A6ss, 75, 65, 76, which my hand has 83.304% equity against.
call/(pot+call) $0.97/($0.40(pot)+$0.28(my bet)+$0.28(his call need to check this bit)+($0.97)= 0.97/1.93 = 50.259% equity needed to make this a break even call and I have around 32% more equity than that so I decide to ship the rest in the pot.

Would you like me to move this to the blogs forum if you're going to do that?

Yeah its probably a better idea if I just add it to the blog I have already got, so in future I will add all the hands Ive done ranges for in them :)
Could you leave this one up for the moment as I just want a check I have done the equity calculations correctly.

Quote:

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Villian is 43/22/0 over 23 hands and has been agressive at the table so far, but not stupidly agressive.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($3.94)
BB ($1.92)
UTG ($1.82)
UTG+1 ($0.98)
MP1 ($2.06)
MP2 ($2.07)
MP3 ($0.76)
Hero (CO) ($2.03)
Button ($1.72)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 5:diamond:, 5:club:
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.07, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.07, 3 folds
Flop: ($0.17) 7:spade:, 5:heart:, 2:spade: (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.12, Hero calls $0.12
Turn: ($0.41) 6:diamond: (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.28, MP2 raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $1.84 (All-In), MP2 calls $0.59
River: ($4.09) J:club: (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $4.09 | Rake: $0.27

Pre-flop
He raised to 3x pre-flop from MP2 - 22-AA, 23s+, 53s+, T7s+, J7s+, Q7s+, K6s+, A2s+, 32o+, 64o+, J8o+, Q8o+, K9o+, A2o+.
Given a pretty wide range pre-flop going by the little stats I have and the fact that its $2NL.

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Nice attempt- I think the range you've assigned is a little too wide here though. It looks like you have used his VP$IP instead of his PFR stat to assign a range preflop, but he raised 3x from MP as you said.

So looking in stove, plugging in a 22 percent range gives us this:

{66+,A3s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo}

and if we make the assumption their range is more heavily weighted to small pocket pairs and high suited connectors than the default says, we can tweak it to something like this:
{22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo +,JTo}

So a range of pocket pairs, suited aces, broadways, some high SCs, and occasionally some dumb hands like Q9s. Given the large discrepancy in VPIP and PFR for this fish he's likely to be doing dumb things like limp-folding weaker parts of his range like 97o. When he raises it's with what he believes to be a fairly good hand.

Obviously though from the flop on you're way ahead the whole time. Check out this awesome equity based on his opening range :D

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
252 games 0.005 secs 50,400 games/sec
Board: 7s 5h 2s 6d Jc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 94.841% 94.84% 00.00% 239 0.00 { 5c5d }
Hand 1: 05.159% 05.16% 00.00% 13 0.00 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


Against a more thinned out range toward FDs and value, you still have great equity ( about as much as you thought you had). Notice you can discount more straights by observing his opening range, as 34o or 34s isn't in it.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
68 games 0.005 secs 13,600 games/sec
Board: 7s 5h 2s 6d Jc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.882% 80.88% 00.00% 55 0.00 { 5c5d }
Hand 1: 19.118% 19.12% 00.00% 13 0.00 { 66+, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, 98s }

yeah I used the VPIP (which is what you would use if they limped?) instead of the PFR which shows much they raise pre-flop as he has done here, so my ranges were way off pre-flop lol.
Meh live and learn, will try and do it right for next time :)

Yup, good start :)

Just for clarity/being pedantic, your VP$IP is when ever you voluntarily put $money in pot, so whenever you take any action (complete SB, limp, call a raise, open, 3 bet, whatever) that voluntarily puts your money in the pot. BB is involuntary so not counted.

When we minus the PFR from the VPIP we are left with the amount they either limp or call a raise PF.

Oh ok I think I understand now so limping, completing, and calling raises (are all the difference between VPIP and PFR) as VPIP includes your raises pre-flop aswell.

Precisely :dance: