Range excersize - fold AA?

Villain was 13/8/38, nothing else to add.

opening range -
22+,AJs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo

Range on flop -
44+,AKs (the AKs is there to signify a bluff raise)
equity against this range: 70%

turn range - 44+
equity - 66%.

river range - 55,66,77,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA
equity - 59%

Which means as far as I see it I was right to call the final bet, but perhaps should have been more aggressive earlier and either got my chips in sooner or maybe got more aggression thrown back which may have changed ranges. I stopped raising cos I had a sneaking suspition I was up agains a set.

Any thoughts?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($6.03)
Hero (UTG) ($9.97)
UTG+1 ($5.81)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($4.18)
MP3 ($19.31)
CO ($9.98)
Button ($10.04)
SB ($11.52)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/ad.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/as.gif
Hero bets $0.20, 5 folds, Button calls $0.20, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.47) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/7d.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/6h.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/5c.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.35, Button raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.67) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/th.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

River: ($5.27) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/2d.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $5, Hero calls $5

Total pot: $15.27 | Rake: $0.75

3bet the flop if you're going to just call your stack off. Don't be a pansy. If he's got a set so be it but I see 88-JJ here a ton.

Disclaimer: I'm on tilt so don't take anything I say seriously for the next 24-48 hours.

i'd put hands like 54s-98s in his preflop range moreso than hands like KJs, which is relevant because he would raise the flop with those hands.

flop seems to be a very clear reverse implied odds spot so i don't really like 3betting here. i want to fold this river. even if his range is 44-JJ, he's 13/8' and i don't think many 13/8's bet 88 or 99 on the river here. i think you're basically catching a bluff. river range imo:

value:
55-77, TT, 56s, 67s (he may not even bet pot with these two pair combos), 89s.
bluff:
78s, 45s (not sure if he ever bluffs here but it's these hands he's most likely to turn into a bluff, if he ever does, imo)

26 games 0.011 secs 2,363 games/sec

Board: 7d 6h 5c Th 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.077% 23.08% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 76.923% 76.92% 00.00% 20 0.00 { TT, 77-55, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s }


based on this range we cannot call, as we need 33% equity against his range based on his river betsizing. interestingly, if we add JJ to his range:

34 games 0.005 secs 6,800 games/sec

Board: 7d 6h 5c Th 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.176% 41.18% 00.00% 14 0.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 58.824% 58.82% 00.00% 20 0.00 { JJ-TT, 77-55, A7s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s }

all comes down to what you know about villain and his tendencies.

says captain obvious

I have something to say about your preflop range: don't you think villain would always three-bet {AK,QQ+}? Assuming villain three-bets these hands, we can actually take them OUT of villain's preflop range since he only called. Remember that villain has different ranges for folding, calling, AND raising.

Surviva already addressed the issue of including suited connectors into villain's range.

It's impossible to give you an answer here. This is obviously villain dependent. Say villain tends to get it all-in on the flop with an overpair. Obviously, we can three-bet on the flop looking to get it in. Say villain only raises with the nuts. We can assume that villain isn't raising anything less than one pair and fold the flop. My point is that there is no answer per se. It is all villain dependent. With no further reads (I wish you told us how many hands you have on villain), I'd three-bet and get it in on the flop. Most villains at 5NL are quick to get it in with an overpair and I'd imagine this is one of them.

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Originally Posted by DanAronG

Villain was 13/8/38, nothing else to add.

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lol probably just fold to this faggots flop raise

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DanAronG

Villain was 13/8/38, nothing else to add.

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lol probably just fold to this faggots flop raise

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I hope that wasn't meant as a joke, cause that's what I'm doing like everytime here..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by surviva316

i'd put hands like 54s-98s in his preflop range moreso than hands like KJs, which is relevant because he would raise the flop with those hands.

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I really don't see a 13,8 calling 4bb from the BB with low S/Cs. I can maybe see TJs but not much lower. Do see your point about KJ though.

I try not to be too tight with ranges or else I seem to only have PPs & AQ+ all the time, which might be accurate, I don't know.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BooG690

I have something to say about your preflop range: don't you think villain would always three-bet {AK,QQ+}? Assuming villain three-bets these hands, we can actually take them OUT of villain's preflop range since he only called. Remember that villain has different ranges for folding, calling, AND raising. .

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Good point, I do have a tendancy to forget to do that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BooG690

I'd three-bet and get it in on the flop. Most villains at 5NL are quick to get it in with an overpair and I'd imagine this is one of them.

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You don't think the lack of 3 betting pre and the tight stats imply that this is prob a set or better?

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Originally Posted by inV1NCEble

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

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Originally Posted by DanAronG

Villain was 13/8/38, nothing else to add.

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lol probably just fold to this faggots flop raise

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I hope that wasn't meant as a joke, cause that's what I'm doing like everytime here..

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I'm serious, put in a range he'd actually raise the flop with and see how bad we're crushed.

nits aren't raising 99 here ever unless they're very retarded.

hero opened utg, even bad tight players know his range is strong and won't want to put lots of money in with TT/99 here etc.

so raising range is more like 77,66,55,98s,76s,QQ(some of the time maybe depending on villain, I'd account for like 3 combos here instead of 6 (in other words QQ raises flop 50% of the time) and throw in some random bluffs like KdQd,KdJd,Td9d,JdTd - keep in mind these guys rarely bluff though.

he's a nit - he's trying to push you off your hand and he isn't raising something like TT for thin value here. unless you have a read that he's raising a high % of flops after calling preflop you can probably just fold. he won't be exploiting this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DanAronG

Villain was 13/8/38, nothing else to add.

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lol probably just fold to this faggots flop raise

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This is what I was thinking I should have done at the time. But does that mean that any time I have a big pair and there is a low flop, if a tight villain 3bets me after calling my pf raise, I should assume a set and and fold? Jut seems a bit weak is all. But my gut feeling was to fold on the flop.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DanAronG

I really don't see a 13,8 calling 4bb from the BB with low S/Cs.

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HH says he's OTB. even if he's in the BB, low SC's are at least as likely as KJ.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DanAronG

This is what I was thinking I should have done at the time. But does that mean that any time I have a big pair and there is a low flop, if a tight villain 3bets me after calling my pf raise, I should assume a set and and fold? Jut seems a bit weak is all. But my gut feeling was to fold on the flop.

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the only way villain is going to exploit us folding AA here is by calling our UTG opens light and raising our cbets often, which is going to happen so so so infrequently at 5nl FR against a 13/8, unless you just happened to catch negraneau playing 5nl to win some prop bet or something. if the board were a little wetter (like even if it were two-toned), i'd feel dirtier about folding, but even a hand like 54s has ~50% equity against us, so folding really can't be bad.

What hands will he be willing to get all in here nearly 200bbs deep? Run that range and then see how we are doing. Then come to a conclusion on how much of your stack you are willing to commit BEFORE we do anything on this flop.

Hmmmmmm, I guess the fact we are 200bb deep does make folding on the flop much easier. Ah well, lives n learns.

As you have probably guessed, I was beat, villain turned over a set of 5s. Still not convinced on button calling the rase with low s/c's very often.