Top pair vs. interesting minraise

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($96.85)
MP1 ($68.55)
MP2 ($20.50)
CO ($20.70)
Button ($86.95)
SB ($122.50)
BB ($52.95)
Hero (UTG) ($50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif
Hero bets $2, 3 folds, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50

Most of the players to my left were pretty tight and I was fairly sure I wouldn't get 3bet much, so I thought it was alright to open with this. CO calls a lot (28/2ish).

Flop: ($8.25) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, 1 fold, Button raises $10, 1 fold,

I figured CO is calling with a lot of hands I beat, or I may get one of the others to follow with a draw or a weaker ace. Unfortunately, he folds and the button decides to minraise. He is 18/9 over about 250 hands, has aggresion on the flop of 2.4, and has folded to a cbet only 1 out of 6 times before this.

I have trouble trying to figure out what he takes this line with. I can see 22, AQ, or A2 trying to suck me in. AK seems unlikely given preflop but not impossible. I don't think other Ax hands would do this. I don't know if I should include two high clubs because it seems too weird, but if enough clubs are in there I start to have the equity to stay in. I'd still be stuck guessing out of position though.

Pre-flop is fine. Put your opponent on a range, decide how he plays that range if you 3-bet or call, and decide if either of those options are +EV.

Pretty standard FD line imo. He's probably 3betting AQ+ on the button so unless he slowplayed something like AA AQ or QQ the only hands that are beating you right now are A2 and 22 as far as I see it.

what spoon said, chuck out a range.

pre-flop is fine to either fold or open. Flop you say that he's only folded to a c-bet 1/6, but i'd like to know if he typically calls or raises here.

wihout more info i fold. Mostly cos calling raises oop sucks arse. And when you do what spoon suggested it becomes pretty easy. So give it a go. Here's a pessimistic one from me: 22/AJs/AQ/AK/A2s/KcJc/KcTc/TcJc. If he's raising a lot of c-bets then i'll widen it some. Mostly i think this is going to be AQ, even if there are only 6 combos available.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Donachello

Pretty standard FD line imo.

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what flush draws does he have exactly, given that the flush ace is on the board

And the flush queen. So that's KcJc, JcTc, Tc9c - or lower. Not completely impossible seeing as he knew he was going into a multiway pot (CO had already called) - not good because CO is short (40bb) - not bad because both BTN and Hero are deep (near 200bb). BTN with stats of 18/9 seems to call more than is generally recommended so may play hands passively preflop. No 3bet stats are indicated so no reason to rule out QQ either.

All that said: I read a post on 2+2 a half year ago about min-raising. The summary was that they ran some statistics on more than 1000 hands that saw a min-raise. One observation was that min-raisers are normally showdown bound. In fact out of hundreds of hands that ended before the showdown only one (less than 1%) of hands saw the min-raiser fold later in the hand to a bet. Point being... well two fold.

If you think your opponent may be min-raising without being pot committed and without it being a pot sweetener - you may be wrong. So it may actually not be a standard line with flush draws.

If you think my vagueish memory of what some analysis may have reached in terms of conclusions is nothing to go by - you have a database of poker hands yourself surely? Filter for min-raise actions (on any street) and run some analsis on the sample to see if you have similar conclusions at your limit/site/etc.