QQ vs Big 3bet on flop

Villain was a 25/20 65ag over 85 hands.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($6.64)
BB ($7.06)
UTG ($5.12)
Hero (Button) ($14.37)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif
1 fold, Hero bets $0.20, 1 fold, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.42) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.95, BB raises to $3 Hero ?



I hadn't seen him do anything really out of line to note and I just don't think someone at this level would 3bet with a flush draw here. AT might be possible but this line just looks so much like a set I don't see much else that could be in his range unless he slow played AA or KK, both of which I am losing to.

let's see a range and our equity

I'd include sets, 56s, a few combo of KK/AA, fd's and perhaps a few Tx hands as well as JJ

Board: Td 6d 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.686% 31.69% 00.00% 51759 0.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 68.314% 68.31% 00.00% 111591 0.00 { AA, KcKd, KdKh, KhKs, JJ-TT, 66-55, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, Qd8d, Jd9d, Td9d, 65s }

Pretty easy fold imo

So he will never 3 bet aa-jj, AKs?

If you don't think he'd call your raise with worse hands and your plan is to fold to a 3bet just call the flop lead.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Donachello

Board: Td 6d 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.686% 31.69% 00.00% 51759 0.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 68.314% 68.31% 00.00% 111591 0.00 { AA, KcKd, KdKh, KhKs, JJ-TT, 66-55, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, Qd8d, Jd9d, Td9d, 65s }

Pretty easy fold imo

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Can't include those!

This one gives us a little better equity, but not quite enough:

Board: Td 6d 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.168% 38.17% 00.00% 13981 0.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 61.832% 61.83% 00.00% 22649 0.00 { KK+, JJ-TT, 66-55, 9d8d, 8d7d, 65s, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, KdTc, KdTh, KdTs }

If you add in weaker T's however, it gets pretty close. Question is, will he be doing this with something like JdTx?

Honestly I think it's a fold, but you also need to factor in how much you're stealing on the button, and whether or not he's thinking "omg it's 4-handed he's full of shit." I'm curious what others would think though.

Is that 65 AF or 6.5? Either way - pretty high.

One question I like to ask here is - how likely is he to be full of shit? With a high AF that becomes more likely. People who have high AF tend to be bluffy. People who are bluffy tend to be bluffy in response to perceived weakness. Are you radiating weakness? You are raising $0.65 into $1.02. It's not a tiny raise, but he might still be putting you on a flush draw and be betting near pot ($2.05 into $2.32) to price out your "obvious" draw.

Anyway, if it is reasonable to have a read on the opponent as a bluffy player who is likely to three bet as a bluff (yeti says... but he's likely bad enough that yeti doesn't apply) - we need to include some bluffing hands in his range - as well as some hands with mediocre showdown value which he rates to be favourites against drawing hands.

All that said - there is nothing wrong with, from an analysis perspective, treating the hand as if the opponent is not a moron and is actually playing a sensible hand.

Questions to ask yourself on this flop.

1. Will he stack off with worse and are there enough worse hands that will?
2. What is his range, did the flop connect well?
3. What happens if I raise and then he reraises? Do I stack or snap fold?
4. What does he think I have? Are there a lot of big hands in MY range?
5. Has he donked often against other peeps in raised pots that you have seen?
6. Do I want to get to showdown or make him fold right here? (do I have showdown value)
7. Do I have position?


Each of those questions have a lot of sub questions.. and this is the type of stuff (and much more) you must be thinking about on every single hand you play.

I believe at this table I was running about 13/10 and hadn't done anything out of line. I had recently stacked someone with KK > QQ and I'm pretty sure my image was rather quite TAGG.

@outlaw. yes he may stack off with worse hands but I think that is a pretty small part of his range here. And yes, I'd like to get to showdown but I'm like 99% sure he just open shoves the turn regardless of what card drops given how much he will have behind him.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Donachello

I believe at this table I was running about 13/10 and hadn't done anything out of line. I had recently stacked someone with KK > QQ and I'm pretty sure my image was rather quite TAGG.

@outlaw. yes he may stack off with worse hands but I think that is a pretty small part of his range here. And yes, I'd like to get to showdown but I'm like 99% sure he just open shoves the turn regardless of what card drops given how much he will have behind him.

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Is the range he open shoves the turn beating you?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Donachello

I believe at this table I was running about 13/10 and hadn't done anything out of line. I had recently stacked someone with KK > QQ and I'm pretty sure my image was rather quite TAGG.

@outlaw. yes he may stack off with worse hands but I think that is a pretty small part of his range here. And yes, I'd like to get to showdown but I'm like 99% sure he just open shoves the turn regardless of what card drops given how much he will have behind him.

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Is the range he open shoves the turn beating you? If not, a shove would be awesome.