Trips + NFD facing C/R on turn 25nl 6-max

I had been 3 betting villain off of his MP opens when I was on the button and he's been folding to 90% of them, so he prob thinks I'm bullying him.

He's running 24/18 over 100. I haven't seen him get out of line really.

I mean my hand looks super strong and he's still c/r'ing.

The reason I'm posting this hand is b/c I am having a hard time giving him an accurate range. But I'll take a shot:

I think he prob has small flushes, 22, A7, and maybe some 7x's in his range. I don't really see him doing this with like A2-->A10 ever. Since I have the K of diamonds I don't know what he would c/r'ing as a bluff either.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($29.30)
CO ($24.85)
Button ($26.65)
SB ($26.95)
Hero (BB) ($29.60)
UTG ($15.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/kd.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/7s.gif
UTG calls $0.25, 3 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.75) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/7d.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/ad.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/2d.gif (3 players)
SB bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75

Turn: ($5.75) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/7c.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB raises to $9.50, Hero ???

1) I think your flop bet is "okay", though you are risking a lot to win a little.
2) But why not just take the free card on the turn?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by !Luck

1) I think your flop bet is "okay", though you are risking a lot to win a little.
2) But why not just take the free card on the turn?

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I didn't take the free card because I thought his range consisted of a lot of Ax hands on the flop and felt I could now get value out of those hands. FWIW I think he has hands we beat here more often than he has us beat on the turn (until he check-raises us obv)

Dude, your all over the place with these ranges and not thinking them through, You need to make a range on the flop and stove it and figure out why your raising (value, bluff?) and then narrow that range to the turn and stove that. When you bet this turn you have to anticipate the part of the range that will raise and then there is no question what you are doing when he does. Rethink this hand and your reads and sort this thread out if you want any help, this seems like your just asking to be spoonfed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jyms

Dude, your all over the place with these ranges and not thinking them through, You need to make a range on the flop and stove it and figure out why your raising (value, bluff?) and then narrow that range to the turn and stove that. When you bet this turn you have to anticipate the part of the range that will raise and then there is no question what you are doing when he does. Rethink this hand and your reads and sort this thread out if you want any help, this seems like your just asking to be spoonfed.

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When villain donks I choose to raise b/c my raising range is stronger than his donking range (at least thats what I figured) I'm actually at the bottom of my raising range here (I typically raise all flushes, A-7, A-2, 22, and Kdx hands here)

The flop range I gave him consists largely of Ax hands which I considered to be much more prevalent than flushes or sets, and I think that my original estimate of some 7x hands is highly unlikely. When he flat calls my flop raise, I know he can't be chasing with the Kd, I don't think he'd be dumb enough to chase with any lower diamond, which I think leaves his range to Ax's, flopped flushes, and boats. I guess it becomes an easy turn fold when he takes this action due to the fact that we basically crush his turn calling range but are crushed by his turn c/r'ing range.

I can definitely say that I was not prepared mentally for the c/r, ie did not have a plan, and upon review wondered what the plan should be, and if checking behind on the turn would be better.

FYI ATs-A2s,ATo-A2o vs your hand has equity on you. So how is betting when you are behind taking advantage of him?

Don't we have like 18 million outs against a made flush here?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by !Luck

FYI ATs-A2s,ATo-A2o vs your hand has equity on you. So how is betting when you are behind taking advantage of him?

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Because though my actual hand may not have majority equity vs his donkbet, the range of hands which I raise on this board does. Like I said Kdx is the bottom of my raising range here. This prob doesn't matter at 25nl though so raising the flop might indeed be a mistake.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Don't we have like 18 million outs against a made flush here?

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against a made flush we have 17 outs ---> ~38% equity

I guess I don't really get it. Since negative equity is negative equity. And is he really going to pay you off without him also holding a heart?

raise flop, good.

turn looks like a shovel, he could have worse 7's (seems kinda bad for him to but doable), set seems unlikely given flop call and A7..meh.

you bet kinda small on the turn, so its more likely for him to spazz out than if you bet larger - like he could do this with top pair now and just called the flop looking to raise 'safe turns' since he thinks ur bluffing or something..

in other words shove cuz he sucks and u have tons of outs and the best hand once and awhile too. u say your hand looks super strong but not really when u bet the turn like that, it's like you don't wanna get the money in or something.

What do you folks think of the flop raise? The rest of the hand flows from that decision...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

What do you folks think of the flop raise? The rest of the hand flows from that decision...

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Firstly UTG is left to act. And we may well be ahead of SB range but don't we let him play perfectly by raising; causing him to ship the hands that are ahead and fold the ones that are behind? (assuming he's not bluffing)

Flop raise is good if we are planning/hoping to get a free card on turn. Villian is representing strong or made hands by flatting the flop raise. I think with this c/r line on turn, he was already planning to get it in.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by !Luck

I guess I don't really get it. Since negative equity is negative equity. And is he really going to pay you off without him also holding a heart?

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i'm not really sure if you're talking about the flop or the turn here, but negative equity A) doesn't exist and B) isn't negative equity. i think you may be thinking of expected value, where if it's negative, than barring metagame factors, it's negative.

just because our equity is <50% doesn't mean we shouldn't play aggressively. the flop raise is a (semi-)bluff, obviously. we effectively don't have bottom pair, we have a draw to trips/two pair (on top of our NFD) because when villain PSB leads OOP into a 3-way pot, we shouldn't be playing for show down.

as for the turn, i think we CAN bet for value

I think this is a call. The big fear here is a made full house, esp AA. If he has a made flush we have 2 draws to beat him. Better yet we might have the best hand.

33% chance made full house

33% chance made flush

33% hand you beat. AK, AQd, 7-x, A2, etc.


Since a flush is in the middle of the range, the fact that we are getting the right odds to call that hand suggests to me that we we should call.

Let me rephrase my prior post because you online guys aren't used to playing limp pots and seem to be playing this hand like there is an invisible $5 chip in the pot.

The flop raise is spew unless the SB is stabbing at lots of limp pots. Even that said, a monotone, uncordinated Ace board doesn't exactly fit a small blind trash range. So we should tend to give the SB credit for a pretty strong hand here, barring more information.

By bluffing him we're fighting over a small pot and risking building a big pot when the kinds of hands we figure to make won't figure win multiple big bets (unless he's really stupid, which he's not) when we hit as we are drawing to a flush in plain sight and 2pr/trips.

Call flop, we have equity, position and can rep a bunch of hands on the turn. If he thinks we're floating then our gin cards get paid. Also, I don't mind an UTG over-call as it looks like he's pretty terrible (yet another reason this flop raise is online aggro monkey poo flinging.)

without reading any other responses:
with your reads on villain, i'm thinking the full PSB oop indicates a pretty strong range, especially when he calls the raise - i'm thinking small flushes, A2, A7,22,77. this may seem a pretty generous range estimation but 1- he's OOP and probably good enough to know that being OOP sucks, 2 - he lead full pot and called a solid raise on monotone flop WITHOUT the nut flush draw, 3 - he doesn't get out line.

Board: Ad 2d 7d 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.317% 46.21% 01.10% 732 17.50 { 77, 22, A7s, A2s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, K7s, Kd6d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, Td9d, Td8d, Td7d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 6d3d, 6d2d, 5d4d, 5d3d, 5d2d, 43s, 4d2d, A7o, A2o }
Hand 1: 52.683% 51.58% 01.10% 817 17.50 { Kd7s }

my first shot at doing suit-specific ranges (thanks spoon). turn looks like we easily have enough equity to shove, and if he EVER folds say 3d4d then it makes it even more +EV. by the way, i was surprised we were in as good a shape as we seem to be on the turn, so i may have stuffed up the stove work.

i think raising the flop is fine for free card purposes, but i'd probably make it closer to $2, or whatever you feel is the cheapest way to get a free card on turn versus the scared part of villain's range (A2, A7, 22, 77 etc). just because i've realised lately i spew in big pots with non-nut hands and always assume villains can fold far better than they actually can at 25nl