10nl FR, AQs vs aggro villain and fish, turn decision.

x-posted from blog:

Here's a hand that I think could have been played better. CO is a positionally aware 20/19/10 over 60 hands, hasn't 3bet in 16 opportunities, and is generally pretty aggro postflop. I basically ignored the shortstack in my analysis as he's a 40/0/1 fish over 50 hands and I'm basically wtfpwning his whole range. The turn card is interesting since it puts me behind a decent chunk of villains range, I'm not sure if c/c here is best, c/f or b/c, or b/f here would be good. I mean, its basically the best card in the deck for hands like TdJd, 8d9d, etc. And its a decent card to bluff/semi bluff at for him.

Given the range {77, JJ, 99, AQs, AJs, 8d9d-TdJd, AJo} I'm only 15% equity. Given pot odds I need at least 23% equity. Makes it a fold, but is my range too narrow? I can't really see any other hands he's going to be doing this with except for maybe some AQo, and some random AKo that he didn't want to 3bet vs me PF? Thoughts?

http://weaktight.com/1879407

Basically what I'm wondering is what line would you have taken?

I think b/f looks pretty good here. We have to be betting this turn to get value from draws and weaker made hands looking to check back, and when he ships I think our equity looks pretty dismal here.

I cant really see us not having at least 25% equity here. The hands he could have that beat you are so unlikely while his draw hands seem to dominate the range.

Like, AJ is blocked, AK/AQ are blocked and discounted cuz they 3b pre and raise flop alot, JJ is discounted cuz its unlikely he calls flop with 2 left behind him agaisnt an UTG raise, 77 and 99 are discounted cuz i also find it unlikely that he'd just call with an aggro image 4 way on a somewhat draw heavy board with a set..

Like, T8s probably doesnt play this way either so his line looks like hes FOS alot imo. I cant really see us not having at least 25% equity so i call.

Plus, Davo c/c, c/c twice, so his range blocks alot of honk's so even more unlikely ness. Like, davo has a shit ace alot or some weird draw alot.

Obv, pre std, flop i def bet more into 4 players with some fish in the pot expecting to get called by Ax, xdxd, and any straight draws. I like the turn bet as is i think.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

I think b/f looks pretty good here. We have to be betting this turn to get value from draws and weaker made hands looking to check back, and when he ships I think our equity looks pretty dismal here.

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^This

this anyone else think we were completely smoked on the flop?.. IMO villian has 99...

i honestly can't imagine him shoving with anything but a set here...