I can't play JJ - 20NL, 6max
14 and 13 hands on villains. Stats are pointless with this sample size and neither has done anything noteworthy.
Flop connects with their calling ranges and I might valuetown myself out of position. I'm leaning towards check/fold, but is there a better play?
$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
Hero ($20)
CO ($18.34)
BTN ($15.10)
SB ($20)
BB ($19)
Pre-Flop: ($0.30, 5 players) Hero is UTG :js: :jd:
Hero raises to $0.70, CO calls $0.70, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50
Flop: :9s: :8h: :kh: ($2.20, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero ($19.3)?
Re: I can't play JJ - 20NL, 6max
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisa
14 and 13 hands on villains. Stats are pointless with this sample size and neither has done anything noteworthy.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...th-t89818.html
Synopsis, it's very rare that a station runs 20/15 over the first 13 hands and very rare that a tagg runs 50/10 over the first 13 (aside from the fact that those specific numbers are impossible over that sample, of course). poker is a game of educated estimates and guesses and almost nothing is certain, so ignoring any information that has a high percentage chance of being accurately indicitive just because it's somewhat imperfect is a mistake.
anyway, if i have any reason to believe that one of the villains (especially the big blind) is a station (either 'cause of stats or stack sizes or whatever), i'm inclined to bet this flop and a blank turn for value.
i think XTR's stove showing us a marginal favorite against his continuing range (which i didn't think was that crazy loose for any station, considering he continues with 77-, and AT+ type hands about enough %age of the time to make up for the times that he doesn't continue with the bottom of the range XTR gave) actually makes me WANT to bet.
basically, we're ahead of a station's continuing range (let me again emphasize, that i condone this only against stations), and we vastly improve our chances of taking advantage of the dead money in the pot, AND i think we will still remain just slightly ahead of his TURN continuing range on a blank (because even though hands like 77- and T6s and so forth will often fold, there will be a vast drop in equity to his draws he DOES continue with), and we afford ourselves the opportunity to scoop even more dead money on the turn for the times when he has a crappy draw or a really weak pair he's only willing to peel one street with.
SYNOPSIS: we don't need a large edge in equity even wtih a marginal hand against a relatively unknown opponent in this spot because of the dead money we have the opportunity to scoop both on the flop and the turn that we otherwise are very hard-pressed to get if we c/f the flop in MP of a 3-way pot.
not certain i'm right about all this, btw, but seeing as how betting two streets if the turn is safe is my standard play here, might as well take 20 minutes out of my day to see if i have a big leak here
Re: I can't play JJ - 20NL, 6max
Quote:
Originally Posted by surviva316
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisa
14 and 13 hands on villains. Stats are pointless with this sample size and neither has done anything noteworthy.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...th-t89818.html
Synopsis, it's very rare that a station runs 20/15 over the first 13 hands and very rare that a tagg runs 50/10 over the first 13 (aside from the fact that those specific numbers are impossible over that sample, of course). poker is a game of educated estimates and guesses and almost nothing is certain, so ignoring any information that has a high percentage chance of being accurately indicitive just because it's somewhat imperfect is a mistake.
Dragging my thread into this - not fair. A dozen hands isn't ZERO info. But this spot sucks. I would need for like all 27 hands to have been open-folds to wanna cbet this flop oop.
Re: I can't play JJ - 20NL, 6max
Quote:
Originally Posted by surviva316
i think XTR's stove showing us a marginal favorite against his continuing range (which i didn't think was that crazy loose for any station, considering he continues with 77-, and AT+ type hands about enough %age of the time to make up for the times that he doesn't continue with the bottom of the range XTR gave) actually makes me WANT to bet.
Thats not exactly correct, the range I gave is a calling range. How we perform vs his entire continuing range (equity when called, FE when folds, lost investment when raised) is a thing thats obv depending on information we dont have. There is a decent portion of a semi-loose players preflop calling range that will raise for value (99,88,98,K9s,K8s, some spazz KQ/KJ/AK maybe) and the calling range implies he´s never raising draws which I doubt.