I can't play JJ - 20NL, 6max

14 and 13 hands on villains. Stats are pointless with this sample size and neither has done anything noteworthy.

Flop connects with their calling ranges and I might valuetown myself out of position. I'm leaning towards check/fold, but is there a better play?

$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($20)
CO ($18.34)
BTN ($15.10)
SB ($20)
BB ($19)

Pre-Flop: ($0.30, 5 players) Hero is UTG :js: :jd:
Hero raises to $0.70, CO calls $0.70, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: :9s: :8h: :kh: ($2.20, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero ($19.3)?

is anything that beats you folding? nope.
is anything you beat calling? some flush draws, some mid-pairs.
Is anything you beat betting if you check? less likely multi-way.

b/f or c/c. But seeing as though you have no reads I'd opt for the aggressive line. Especially considering - referring to daven's comment above - that I believe there are far more hands you beat that are calling than hands that have you beat.

since we´re likely to get called, dont have no reads, are unlikely to be far ahead anyway if called and can´t keep up the aggresion c/f seems like a viable option to me

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Originally Posted by XTR1000

since we´re likely to get called, dont have no reads, are unlikely to be far ahead anyway if called and can´t keep up the aggresion c/f seems like a viable option to me

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I must possess some form of inverted thinking because most of what was said here are my reasons for betting the flop.

Since more draws are calling than hands that beat us Villain is making a mistake by calling - that's good for us. It further defines his hand as well.

When I don't have reads I opt for aggression when possible because my default assumption is Villain is passive/playing straight forward. i.e. I don't expect to get raised by worse here..

Lastly, though I'm not certain of this, JJ has marginal showdown value in this spot i think.

al yell

Range below represents what I estimate a likely calling range for one opponent. The range is on the loose side including some gutters and midpairs. I´m actually surprised as I thought we´d be slightly further ahead. This is assuming only one of both villians continues.

The fact we cant keep up the aggression is an argument against putting money in when we dont consider our hand SD worthy in our c/c or b/f range (amount of our hands SD value is depending on which range we actually put that hand in, ie JJ has a fuckton of SD value in our c/f-c/f-c/f range, whereas it has very little in a b/c-b/c-b/c range btw) because we´d have to give up so often. If we were betting here it was basically to capitalize on the dead money, since our edge if called is marginal. Now with 3 to the flop the BB is more likely to c/r with two chances of people behind him betting, if we get called we basically have to give up as going for two or three streets of value is kinda optimistic and there´s also little chance of either villian calling a range on flop which would fold to a turn bet.

If however both villians have notably wide preflop ranges and can therefore be expected to fold a good % on the flop we can bet to collect dead money. Lacking reads however, we cant assume extraordinarily wide ranges for both calling pre and c/f´ing flop.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

57,420 games 0.002 secs 28,710,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 9s 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.108% 50.81% 00.29% 29177 169.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 48.892% 48.60% 00.29% 27905 169.00 { TT, Ah9h, Ad7d, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KcJc, KdJd, KsJs, KcTc, KhTh, KsTs, QTs, JcTc, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, T8s-T6s, 76s, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs, KsJc, KsJd, KsJh, JcTh, JcTs, JdTc, JdTh, JdTs, JhTc, JhTs }

awesome. thx for taking the time to lay this out.

Hey,just signed up and thought id give my thoughts on this hand. This is about the worst board possible for you to get successfully bluffed off of, for your hand,in this situation,considering you dont have any reads.The, str8 ,and flush draws are definiately there.The king is also in there range as well as the sets. I think ,check/folding, check/calling, and leading out are all fair game.Unless youre a really good hand reader for you I would suggest check/folding because you simply do not have any reads on opps and how they play hands/think. Two other reasons I would suggest check/folding to a bet on flop is because you dont wanna have to call another bet on turn or river and not have a semi decent clue as to what opp has when the str8,flush, and or overs hit.And this just isnt the kind of board you can feel almost certain you wont have to face another bet later on. You might think you can reevaluate by then and you can a little bit but already starting off with no reads on this ever increasingly scary board is still going to be extremely hard.Youre just calling* building a bigger pot to potentionally lose later on in the hand. In other words even if you are ahead, the draws might hit opp or opp might successfully bluff you off the hand repping whatever he thinks hes tryin to do in his mind because these players are just bad at these limits.The second reason id rather check then bet is because again youre* this time just building a bigger pot that has high potential for your opponent to take you off of later on in the hand since you have no reads on this particualr scary board.Look if you lead out and are called or raised you still do not really know where you are in the hand.Atleast if you check you might get to see the turn keeping the pot smaller for whatever you do.I know I kind of over analyzed this hand for you. Its not even that big of a deal/hand.But im bored and isnt it better then just saying "check/fold"

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Originally Posted by chrisa

14 and 13 hands on villains. Stats are pointless with this sample size and neither has done anything noteworthy.

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http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...th-t89818.html

Synopsis, it's very rare that a station runs 20/15 over the first 13 hands and very rare that a tagg runs 50/10 over the first 13 (aside from the fact that those specific numbers are impossible over that sample, of course). poker is a game of educated estimates and guesses and almost nothing is certain, so ignoring any information that has a high percentage chance of being accurately indicitive just because it's somewhat imperfect is a mistake.

anyway, if i have any reason to believe that one of the villains (especially the big blind) is a station (either 'cause of stats or stack sizes or whatever), i'm inclined to bet this flop and a blank turn for value.

i think XTR's stove showing us a marginal favorite against his continuing range (which i didn't think was that crazy loose for any station, considering he continues with 77-, and AT+ type hands about enough %age of the time to make up for the times that he doesn't continue with the bottom of the range XTR gave) actually makes me WANT to bet.

basically, we're ahead of a station's continuing range (let me again emphasize, that i condone this only against stations), and we vastly improve our chances of taking advantage of the dead money in the pot, AND i think we will still remain just slightly ahead of his TURN continuing range on a blank (because even though hands like 77- and T6s and so forth will often fold, there will be a vast drop in equity to his draws he DOES continue with), and we afford ourselves the opportunity to scoop even more dead money on the turn for the times when he has a crappy draw or a really weak pair he's only willing to peel one street with.

SYNOPSIS: we don't need a large edge in equity even wtih a marginal hand against a relatively unknown opponent in this spot because of the dead money we have the opportunity to scoop both on the flop and the turn that we otherwise are very hard-pressed to get if we c/f the flop in MP of a 3-way pot.

not certain i'm right about all this, btw, but seeing as how betting two streets if the turn is safe is my standard play here, might as well take 20 minutes out of my day to see if i have a big leak here

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Originally Posted by surviva316

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Originally Posted by chrisa

14 and 13 hands on villains. Stats are pointless with this sample size and neither has done anything noteworthy.

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http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...th-t89818.html

Synopsis, it's very rare that a station runs 20/15 over the first 13 hands and very rare that a tagg runs 50/10 over the first 13 (aside from the fact that those specific numbers are impossible over that sample, of course). poker is a game of educated estimates and guesses and almost nothing is certain, so ignoring any information that has a high percentage chance of being accurately indicitive just because it's somewhat imperfect is a mistake.

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Dragging my thread into this - not fair. A dozen hands isn't ZERO info. But this spot sucks. I would need for like all 27 hands to have been open-folds to wanna cbet this flop oop.

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Originally Posted by surviva316

i think XTR's stove showing us a marginal favorite against his continuing range (which i didn't think was that crazy loose for any station, considering he continues with 77-, and AT+ type hands about enough %age of the time to make up for the times that he doesn't continue with the bottom of the range XTR gave) actually makes me WANT to bet.

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Thats not exactly correct, the range I gave is a calling range. How we perform vs his entire continuing range (equity when called, FE when folds, lost investment when raised) is a thing thats obv depending on information we dont have. There is a decent portion of a semi-loose players preflop calling range that will raise for value (99,88,98,K9s,K8s, some spazz KQ/KJ/AK maybe) and the calling range implies he´s never raising draws which I doubt.

JJ may well be the hand that leads to the highest proportion of tough decisions. Since it's 6max, I'd assume the players are on the loose side unless I had table-selected otherwise. With just one over on the flop, I'd tend to take one stab at the pot and bet around 1.50. The math is too complex to do with much accuracy at the table, but I'd guess I'm ahead around half the time, or close enough that one stab is worthwhile.

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Originally Posted by Arjonius

JJ may well be the hand that leads to the highest proportion of tough decisions. Since it's 6max, I'd assume the players are on the loose side unless I had table-selected otherwise. With just one over on the flop, I'd tend to take one stab at the pot and bet around 1.50. The math is too complex to do with much accuracy at the table, but I'd guess I'm ahead around half the time, or close enough that one stab is worthwhile.

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Of course you're ahead half the time, maybe a bit more. The problem is that you're out of position and are going to have a lot of trouble winning often enough to make this profitable.

That board is really wet so i hate the idea of checking. A bet is a must imo. If he raises it's an easy fold. The tricky part is if they just call. If they lead out on the turn i would fold more times then not. If they check the turn bet again. Now if they c-raise you just ran into a set or better. Play the river almost the same as the turn except if they they check just check behind. If the river is a brick and they lead out well now you gotta ask how often do they bet busted draws on the river. Folding flop is not such a bad option either. Playing under pairs can be a real bitch.

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Originally Posted by Robb

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Originally Posted by Arjonius

JJ may well be the hand that leads to the highest proportion of tough decisions. Since it's 6max, I'd assume the players are on the loose side unless I had table-selected otherwise. With just one over on the flop, I'd tend to take one stab at the pot and bet around 1.50. The math is too complex to do with much accuracy at the table, but I'd guess I'm ahead around half the time, or close enough that one stab is worthwhile.

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Of course you're ahead half the time, maybe a bit more. The problem is that you're out of position and are going to have a lot of trouble winning often enough to make this profitable.

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BB checks, Hero ($19.3)?

How are we out of position when we are last to act.

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Originally Posted by littleogre

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Originally Posted by Robb

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Originally Posted by Arjonius

JJ may well be the hand that leads to the highest proportion of tough decisions. Since it's 6max, I'd assume the players are on the loose side unless I had table-selected otherwise. With just one over on the flop, I'd tend to take one stab at the pot and bet around 1.50. The math is too complex to do with much accuracy at the table, but I'd guess I'm ahead around half the time, or close enough that one stab is worthwhile.

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Of course you're ahead half the time, maybe a bit more. The problem is that you're out of position and are going to have a lot of trouble winning often enough to make this profitable.

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BB checks, Hero ($19.3)?

How are we out of position when we are last to act.

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It's a multi-way pot. We are UTG and CO is acting after us.

I agree with the C/F here due to being OOP. There are many drawy hands that are getting odds on your 2/3rd bet pot here also.

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Originally Posted by CBAT

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Originally Posted by littleogre

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Originally Posted by Robb

Of course you're ahead half the time, maybe a bit more. The problem is that you're out of position and are going to have a lot of trouble winning often enough to make this profitable.

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BB checks, Hero ($19.3)?

How are we out of position when we are last to act.

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It's a multi-way pot. We are UTG and CO is acting after us.

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If the BB has a hand (2 pair +) on this board, he's likely to c/c or c/r. He doesn't want to start building a pot himself until Hero's had a chance to. He's probably only donking mediocre hands (KT, 55, A8), so on the flop we're effectively oop against him, too, any time it actually matters.

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Originally Posted by Robb

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Originally Posted by CBAT

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Originally Posted by littleogre

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Originally Posted by Robb

Of course you're ahead half the time, maybe a bit more. The problem is that you're out of position and are going to have a lot of trouble winning often enough to make this profitable.

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BB checks, Hero ($19.3)?

How are we out of position when we are last to act.

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It's a multi-way pot. We are UTG and CO is acting after us.

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If the BB has a hand (2 pair +) on this board, he's likely to c/c or c/r. He doesn't want to start building a pot himself until Hero's had a chance to. He's probably only donking mediocre hands (KT, 55, A8), so on the flop we're effectively oop against him, too, any time it actually matters.

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Slaps self in face. I thought we were HU :( Guess i shouldn't start reading HH files at the flop. Multiway i probably just fold on the flop. Honestly makeing money with under pairs in a multiway pot is a little above me at this point. The method i posted in my above post works fine for HU pots though.