100nl - Value shove??

Villain is 13/11 with a 37% ATS, and a 75% cbet.

Note on him: he called K4 to a flop raise vs me on KT7 two tone.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($155.45)
UTG ($158.70)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($158.85)
CO ($48.40)
Button ($146.25)
SB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif
6 folds, SB bets $3, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $12, SB calls $8

Turn: ($30) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $21, SB calls $21

River: ($72) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero?

he saw me check back my air last time on the turn/river so I don't think he's really going to be trapping me with the nuts or anything. Also, it doesn't seem like he'd have AT or a set at this point because certainly he'd just get it in on the flop or turn....

question is, what do I get value from if I shove? I suppose AK/AJ/A9, wouldn't really count on A9 or worse but even AK/AJ might fold to a jam here :S so I guess that could merit checking behind since if he was playing a diamond draw (terribly) he missed anyway.

I'm torn between value betting and checking, halp.

The only hands I'd be worried about here is AT or maybe a baby flush. I'd be stunned if he showed up with a set. He's calling down much more often here with Ax, worse two-pair or he's chasing with the Kd. What would he call the turn with that he'd check/call the river?

hmm

he could have like KdJx or KdQx which would make sense for c/c turn..though you would think KdJx would just c/shove because any diamond on the river would kill his action if I have a set/2 pair.

he could also have QdTx for a worse 2 pair I suppose.

I dunno, I'm pretty sure I raise flop bigger and b/shove but I may be underthinking this? Villain has not shown propensity to fold TP to raises, so he has a lot of aces in his range. I think if we bet a little larger AJ can convince itself to call a river 3/5 pot shove.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Illfavor

I dunno, I'm pretty sure I raise flop bigger and b/shove but I may be underthinking this? Villain has not shown propensity to fold TP to raises, so he has a lot of aces in his range. I think if we bet a little larger AJ can convince itself to call a river 3/5 pot shove.

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yeah actually I don't get my flop raise..I think I meant to make it 14 or so...sounds a bit better, then that will make later street bets larger and give him a better price (more reason to call lighter) on the river.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Note on him: he called K4 to a flop raise vs me on KT7 two tone.

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What were the results? Showdown?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Note on him: he called K4 to a flop raise vs me on KT7 two tone.

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What were the results? Showdown?

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($128.90)
Button ($80.70)
SB ($100.50)
Hero (BB) ($130.95)
UTG ($113.85)
UTG+1 ($101.40)
MP1 ($109)
MP2 ($88.90)
MP3 ($108.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with X, X
7 folds, SB bets $3, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $12, SB calls $8

Turn: ($30) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($30) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $30 | Rake: $1.45

Results:
SB had 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (one pair, Kings).

Outcome: SB won $28.55

now I remember why I raised to 12...I made a note that I used the same size as a bluff in case he made a note of the sizing of this hand since what I ended up sowing down didn't really connect with the board at all..

btw I dunno where the fk I got KT7 from... :S my bad!

no wonder he called me I rep nothing, he was probably calling turn too though I think he can let it go on this river. i must have been on tilt from being card dead or something.

I think this K4 hand is very telling into the thinking of villain in this most recent hand. Makes me lean towards a value shove, or even something simple like $30.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I think this K4 hand is very telling into the thinking of villain in this most recent hand. Makes me lean towards a value shove, or even something simple like $30.

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cool, given my image I think a shove is in order. everyone thinks I'm fos these days..must be the avatar change.

It is definitely a bet, I'd probably do like $42 though instead of shove

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

It is definitely a bet, I'd probably do like $42 though instead of shove

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so if he jams...

yeah I actually went there by asking that..

mostly because I can't seem worse jamming..though the price would be absurdly good :/