200nl - preflop bad? turn worse?

Villain is xBrocxheNx, classic nit 13/10ish over 8 hundo or so. Stealing only 25% - not sure how accurate this is given my sample size..he's cbet 45% of the time over this sample and we have no history.

I'm like 15/12 or something on his HUD, anyway. I guess this turn is like, EZ MUCK but I'm posting for confirmation. I ended up calling because I figure this is a card that he will pick up additional equity with to barrel (like if he has XsXs, KQ, 89, etc...but I unno, I'm a f'in station sometimes..) but even if he's a nit he can still bet w/o a hand sometimes..right? right? :S

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($433.25)
Button ($130.95)
SB ($215.30)
Hero (BB) ($208)
UTG ($248.35)
UTG+1 ($202)
MP1 ($200)
MP2 ($200)
MP3 ($203)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
7 folds, SB bets $6, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($12) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets $8, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($28) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets $22, Hero

flame

btw he folds to 3bets like 92% of the time...is calling pre really even optimal since we don't really have much value postflop, especially vs this nit?

<+m2m> i think QT kinda sucks since we are often dominated
<+m2m> since hes not opening like Q6 or anything
<+m2m> im guessing
<+m2m> if i 3bet pre i can probably get him to fold a handa s strong as KQ
<+m2m> AQ even maybe since we havent tangled at al
<+m2m> and stuff like KT/AT etc..
<+m2m> and if we flat call pre it seems like we're always going to be put in a marginal situation

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Villain is xBrocxheNx, classic nit 13/10ish over 8 hundo or so ... I'm like 15/12 or something on his HUD

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Ha! He's probably looking @ his HUD thinking, how am I going to exploit this classic 15/12 nit. ;)

I think I'm like 23/18 full ring, which probably makes me a "spewy lagtard". :cool: ... so take this with a grain of salt, but ...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

but even if he's a nit he can still bet w/o a hand sometimes..right? right? :S

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... to answer your question, I guess I don't think a call or fold on the turn is bad either way because I think a decent amount of the time, you're good on the turn and if you're not, you'll probably find out on the river and even then you have some outs to improve and possible scare cards (to him) or safe cards (to him) that may induce a check from him to get to showdown cheaply. On the other hand, I don't have a problem letting it go on the turn if you feel like a big river bet is coming no matter what and you don't have a good feel if you're good or not. In marginal situations against an opponent I don't have a good read on or don't have a good read in a particular situation, I tend to like to try to get to showdown for the purposes of getting information and taking notes if nothing else. Now, I don't advocate JUST calling for the purpose of taking notes or paying for information, but when you've analyzed everything you know and it's close either way, that's the direction I lean to. This situation would appear to qualify as such, so I lean to call the turn bet.

The fact is that it's blind versus blind and you had top pair after the flop AND position - that's usually a pretty good situation unless you have some good intelligence to the contrary, which it doesn't sound like you necessarily do.