http://news.bluffmagazine.com/poker-...on-delay-8359/
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just posted something about this in SHNL: i have a friend who spent a bunch of time a month or so ago talking alot to the guys at the top of FTP and stars, and he says they are very very confident its going to be legalized in US in the relatively near future
There are a lot of problems with licensing it. Like creating explicit criminals out of non-licensed entities, or hurting the prospects for players within unfavorable regions (since regulation will end up being on a state level, not federal)
nope, neither of those things are problems. its gonna be awesome
Awesome!
Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Yeah, but all the gossip I've ever heard about legalizing it is always this and it's never come.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
makes me wanna dance dance dance
A group of smart poker players might pitch the idea to the US Government, that if they legalized online poker in the US via a government regulated website, in which the rake was competitive, but instead went to the gov't as taxes... The US would gobble that sucker up in a heartbeat.
this isn't just gossip though... FTP couldnt be paying him what they are without thinking the US is going to open up. thats something they told himQuote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
It's not gossip to you since you're in contact with a party in the action. But I don't chat with durrr so it's gossip to me. :PQuote:
Originally Posted by gabe
cool - bring on the US fish.
Was it really that great back in the day???
It was like making sweet love to a beautiful lady all night long :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by WillburForce
PS and FTP are among PPA's largest contributors (probably top two). Thinking that there will be some change of laws in US isn't really gossip, a lot of influential people/organizations have opined as much, and PS/FTP have clearly been acting accordingly
It's not a magic gun, however. Not sure if anybody here knows what the current bills actually say, but if the Frank bill was passed today as written, things are predicted to be pretty ugly for a lot of people
As the bills are currently written, they likely don't have the necessary support from players because they would cause an assload of unnecessary problems. Here's to hoping that lobby strength is enough that those numerous deleterious provisions will be done away with by the time voting comes
As for the OP specifically, this a great thing because it shows that we're the ones with momentum and garnering more support, that the DoJ is not hard-lining against us, and it suggests that this is the first inconspicuous event with regards to either opening up the UIGEA and re-writing or passing new legislation
On an ironic note, horseracing currently has our back because UIGEA implementation was forcing credit cards to overblock transactions, and thus block horseracing, which has a specific carve-out in the law
Good news - the game may be fun again!
All we would need for the perfect storm is someone to win the WSOP next year after qualifying through a 20 fpp sat and the economy to pick up so there is more disposable income swilling about the system.
So is the general consensus that Full Tilt would be the 'new' Party?
I'd have a hard time expecting full tilt to win the marketing battle with pokerstars if it's legalized. I'd imagine both sites would become much softer.
really? Full tilts software seems to have more mainstream appeal, and they have a ton of big name pros.Quote:
Originally Posted by meeloche
I'd have to agree, one of Phil Ivey's spots sent chills through me. That said PS is entrenched, but I think it'd be a good fight either way and probably both will win.Quote:
Originally Posted by boost
While both FTP and PS have been growing, pokersitescout has FTP growing more quickly
Predicting the markets after US licensing will show to be nearly impossible, however. For example, everybody thinks that the games will magically become like they had in the past, yet don't seem to account for the recession and overall strategic improvement and availability for wannabes which has also correlated with the games getting tougher
I think games could get really soft for a bit, but ya with all the poker vids out there Im not sure that it will last all that long/get all that soft. Pretty sure we wont ever see the golden days again. But thats fine.. games are plenty profitable now, so if they get better at all thats fine by me, but they will at the very least not get any harder.
if someone wants to watch some poker vids and play some 2knl im all for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by boost
come on, you know thats not at all what I was saying.Quote:
Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld
I think it'll be like the golden days again. The average guy who decides to sit down of an evening and play internet poker is a losing player and doesn't care for videos and whatnot - and that guy could soon play easily without hassle! If anything, maybe videos will actually make the market better as donks would probably want to watch a high stakes vid and then fancy himself as a budding durrrr. "How difficult can it be?"Quote:
Originally Posted by boost
That type of thing will happen very, very rarelyQuote:
Originally Posted by pantherhound
Softness of games is a product of collective strategic level and pro/casual player ratio. Back in the golden days, collective strategic understanding was not even close to what it is today, and the pro/casual player ratio was substantially lower than today. People don't understand the astronomical numbers of casual players it would take to return to golden days.
The games would get softer though, but probably only for a while. Online poker is highly competitive, and eventually the weak ones get weeded out and lose interest. Back in the golden days, money was made by beating terrible players, but today it's more about beating actual good players.
One way of looking at is that back in the golden days, very few people knew what 3betting is for, but today the majority of small stakes regulars have some clue. Collective strategic improvement isn't necessarily making the games less beatable, it's just increasing the amount of strategic development needed to beat them, and also decreasing the amount of realistic improvement available to give players an advantage over other regulars.
This is pretty standard for new competitive platforms. At first, they're super easy to beat, but as time goes by they become more and more difficult until they reach an equilibrium point. The games will always be highly beatable (until AI shows up) due to things like new players, learning curve, tilt, strategic trickery, etc (if this wasn't true then stakes wouldn't exist), but a return to the fishy days of old is a pipedream IMO
Could be wrong. Really hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it. We would need something crazy like a 10-20x influx of casual players to achieve olden days ratio. Every little bit is very positive though. Many benefits are unseen ones though. Like VIP programs that can carry over to B&M, better software, better customer service, no transaction hassles, etc
The recession may even have more to do with game quality than US licensing.
50NL then played like 10NL now. I really hope that happens again :D. Its pretty unlikely to get that good though. Games will get easier, but most regs now are way harder to beat than regs of a few levels above in the golden days so things are unlikely to get super soft.Quote:
Originally Posted by WillburForce
Most of us don't need years of the golden age, but a year or two of having people coming back to the game would be good for a lot of us.
If online poker was legal and EASY to get money on and off the sites, I think things will be BETTER than they were back in the golden era. Even in the good ole days, it was still never EASY to move funds around. For poker to be most profitable, it's all about getting fish and the easier it is for fish to play, the more fish there will be. Worrying about good players isn't as big of a concern as getting fish. Most of the money comes from fish.
Much more than that IMO. I would say that 50nl plays like 200nl did two years ago. I started playing around early 06, I recall a good player on this forum claiming that 05 to 07 saw 100nl become the new 400nl. But even before then, there's tell about the days of bldswttrs, lolotrickedu, and a few others tearing up super duper soft 50BB buyin games on Party or something for like 10ptbbQuote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
With regards to quantity, it's about ratio. The boom days had a very low number of good players and a crapload of bad players. In order to achieve a similar ratio from this point on, we would need to see an influx of bad players on a colossal scale.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason
But like jyms said, just a little bit will go a long way.
Yeah the old 50bb games were literally just make TPTK and bet until its in, and it would get in every time with someone calling down A4o. Good times.
I mean, a pure set hunter is probably a slight loser at 25NL these days. Im pretty sure it used to turn a pretty decent profit a lot higher.
I dont know exactly when he departed from pure set hunting.. but ilikeaces86 moved up through the stakes being an uber set hunting nit. Im pretty sure hes still pretty nitty, but I havent heard much about him playing in a while.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
I have no first hadn experience, but Im pretty sure you could set hunt 600nl profitably... thats just insane..
Oh the days of being an uber-nit. I remember them well. I think I played something ridiculous like 12/6 but made 20k in little over a year clearing bonuses and only stacking off when I had the goods. I wasn't even playing full time or every day...When I felt the need to make money, I sat down and played.
Speaking of ilikeaces86, he gave me my original stake. He barely knew me but threw $500 my way, which I turned into $1500 in less than three weeks just nut-camping.
meh, w/e games are still soft.
:drool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by boost
good post but think of the ways in which crap players interpret things - as you say we have a lot of knowledge floating around about strategic development of the game, but what we also have is inherently stupid people (donks) who are set to come along and misinterpret everything. I see it as more or less the same as some donk watching the WSOP. If a recreational player has an itch to play and is able, they are going to use any knowledge they think they might have gained on poker and apply it, badly. I don't think that the eloquence of poker videos or strategic advice equates to players who would otherwise have lost a lot of money suddenly being able to process that info and use it to their advantage.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I don't agree the weak ones get weeded out and lose interest otherwise there would be no donks left, obv it's just about getting poker back into the mainstream conscience a la Chris Moneymaker. It would be interesting to hypothesise what the scene would be like without the UIGEA happening. Sure there would still be the same amount of good players, but there would also have been the same high proportion of bad ones - a proportion which dwarfs the good player contingent. When all those players come flooding back (and with enough publicity, middle america outcry because people are told gambling is bad, whatever it takes, they will) soon the tables will be awash with silly names you never heard of and likely won't again!
5.5 month bump?
o_O
Any word on how this is going?
it will probably just be a blip
but nobody knows
So, i shouldnt be scared? I dont want to be scared.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
T minus seven days.
more sites are pulling out of the us market cuz of this.
There's a yo momma joke bottled up somewhere in there.Quote:
Originally Posted by givememyleg
So, i shouldnt be scared? I dont want to be scared.
.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
::crossing fingers:::
should have been scared 3 years ago, I'm not a sky is falling type person but there's little reason to be optimistic at the current time. Stars/FTP won't leave the US market anytime soon but the games are going to continue to get tougher as more and more deposit methods fall by the wayside.
It is impossible that dating in the Internet will in fact work in reality.
lol wat
quality first post
Damn Canadians!
I'm in the process of writing a paper/website on the topic and I found this summary/discussion of the law and it's history to be pretty interesting.
so for anyone who hasn't already seen this.
First Amendment Lawyer - UIGEA and Internet Gambling?
No matter what you believe in but it works
his name has 2 asses in it
hrm OH GOD THE SKY IS FUCKING FALLING JESUS CHRIST
One day someone is going to claim the sky is falling and it will.
http://www.allclaimspublicadjusters....0Photo%202.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Sky falling hurts.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
http://www.kcci.com/2010/0407/23077158_640X480.jpg
True story: Runners Caught Outside As Hail Storm Hits - Des Moines Weather News Story - KCCI Des Moines
Harry Reid works to add online poker to tax bill - Kenneth P. Vogel and Manu Raju - POLITICO.com
Reid is attempting to attach it to the Tax Cut legislation, meanwhile Minority Whip Jon Kyle says its got a snowball's chance in hell. Good...news? idfk