confusing question..

in another thread, on another forum, we had a 8.5 BB pot on the turn with a board of Qd4d3s and the turn was the Qh. we 3bet pre with JJ from lp and had the SB cold cap. by the turn, we were HU with the SB. this was at a 1/2 table, btw.

my point is: on the flop, i had us figured as about 5:1 dogs because of the 15 combos of hands ahead of us versus the 3 combos we beat (QQ+/AKs is the range i assigned the capper). hero just called a single bet on the flop, and a third player dropped out. however, the turn makes QQ very unlikely. we now have 7 combos we are behind and 4 combos we are ahead of....for a 7:4 dog and are HU.

we are receiving 8.5:1 from a single bet, have a little sd value here and, if my read is off, we are ahead of more than 4 combinations of hands. given the pot odds, we look committed to calling this down, don't we?

i still swear we are well behind villain here, and should fold the turn, if not the flop. but, those pot odds look delicious......but in a different way that i never use to calculate things.

i usually think 20:1-ish on a 2 outer. but, if we have 7:4 on his range, isnt THAT what we should calculate against?

Quote:

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the turn makes QQ very unlikely. we now have 7 combos we are behind and 4 combos we are ahead of

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You are behind AA,KK,QQ -> 13 combos.
You are ahead of AKs -> 4 combos

Looking at the combos alone you win 4 times out of 17 (4.2 to 1).
You most likely will have to call turn and river so pot odds are ~ 5 to 1. So initially it looks like you just have odds to call down.

When you are behind AA KK, you have 2 outs (will improve 8%)
When you are ahead , opp has 6 outs (will improve 24%)

(23.5% * 76%) + (76.5% * 8%) you win 10.5BB
(23.5% * 24%) + (76.5% * 92%) you lose 2BB

overall equity of calling down is (0.24*10.5) - (0.76*2) = 1BB

Initially I thought that the ability of his AK to improve would make a big difference to the equity but you are actually equally likely to suck out on each other. So even with more losing combos than your original post it is profitable to call.

(deliberately missed out situation where you improve but run into QQ)

that was awesome, sinky. thank you!