A5o on button hits A against lag

Villain is 31/0/3 over 64 hands. I saw him minbet/call a flopped top 2pair on every street a few hands before.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (5 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($5.67)
UTG ($7.71)
SB ($5)
Hero (BB) ($5)
Button ($5.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
UTG calls $0.04, 1 fold, Button calls $0.04, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.14) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $0.10, 1 fold, Button calls $0.10

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I'm trying to pick it up right here.
Against a better opponent I know that we're beat if we're called, but against him I'm not sure we're getting alot of value.

Should we have checked to induce a bluff since he's so laggy?

callingrange
* Hands we beat: (I have alot of problems with this one) ATo+,A2-4s,KK-99,T9s,JT (Like I said I've seen him slowplay before, I also know that his PFR is o which is why I include KK-99 but it's such a small sample. Please help me here)

* Hands that beat us: A5+ AA,77,88,78


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Turn: ($0.34) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, Button calls $0.20

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2 is a total blank so I'm still totally confused, not knowing if we're missing value if we check or if we're spewing money since he's not calling with worse.
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River: ($0.74) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, Button calls $0.40
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I guess the only thing that changes here is that we beat 87 now.
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Total pot: $1.54

Results below:
Button had 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (two pair, Aces and sevens).
Hero had Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (two pair, Aces and twos).
Outcome: Button won $1.47


I guess this hand is like überstandard, but I don't really know what to think of it. Some thoughts?

Try and check it down from the turn. We have some showdown value..

If he typically bets small, and you are unsure about the strength of your hand, you could c/c turn and river to keep pot smaller. If he bets river you have to start thinking what Ax you beat...only A2, A3, A4.

"Should we have checked to induce a bluff since he's so laggy?"

No. CBetting Weak Aces when you've hit is good. You don't let him fold out a lot of his weaker aces / high card game (a2-a4... a-6, kq, j10,) unless you bet here. Otherwise you are asking to be drawn out on. With the call, I am worried about a9, a10, etc.. Though I think you need to be thinking a bit differently in calling him "Laggy"... If a laggy player hits this ace he is raising your bet to a big extent. A call to me means he is either a calling station (as you described earlier) and loose, not loose aggressive. I would probably bet this street, bet a safe turn, check a good river. If you can define his range more, it may be useful to have some pot control on the turn. His aggression factor is pretty small too (i think it's inflated because of his donk-betting). He is probably drawing and doing it poorly. For what it's worth, bet the pot here to get the money in while you're probably good. No reason to not be betting this flop if you hit top pair. You also have to think about getting the UTG guy out.

"2 is a total blank so I'm still totally confused, not knowing if we're missing value if we check or if we're spewing money since he's not calling with worse. "

Bet somewhere around 65% pot, he will raise you if you are beat because he wants more value out of his hands seeing the bet sizing. Or he will call to pot control it with a higher kicker or more marginal hand. Either way, I'm betting here and probably checking the river. The reason being, after calling the turn, no matter what that card is, this person is not folding. Against solid players, I would probably even bet bigger on this turn planning to play the river with a big bet to see if he'll fold out some of his worser stuff... especially when cards like this hit... but I think he is good on the river here more often than not.


River: ($0.74) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, Button calls $0.40

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I guess the only thing that changes here is that we beat 87 now.

... And probably a lot more than that. He is calling anything, so just check here I think. If he has the nuts, he will bet big, but I think your showdown value is good here or not (which is why we check the river and bet a little bit less on the turn when we might not be good). He may have a medium pair (810, j8, k8) or ace with lower kicker still. I think I take my chances at showdown.

Yes vinland, I think a c/C is very reasonable on the flop. That will add some bluffs to his range. But if he bets again on the turn, can we continue?
When I look at it now I would say c/C flop en c/F turn is that acceptable?

Srr holdenfuries but I don't agree that he's not a lag (ofcourse thats just a very general discription). The point is that he's agressive with his marginal hands and capable of bluffing with air while he immediatly starts slowplaying when he does hit a monster. What I'm not sure about is his callingrange. Also I don't think you can say that an AF of 3 is low when he has a VP of 31..

'..And probably a lot more than that.'

like..?

'He is calling anything, so just check here I think'

Looks like a contradiction to me.

PS: Don't think I'm trying to undermine you or anything, I just don't agree with this post.

I dont mind the flop bet, I think after his call you have to keep the pot smaller by trying to check it down or check/calling small bets. A river bet larger than his usual makes me want to fold unless you think he calls/makes bets with 2nd pair.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by inV1NCEble

Villain is 31/0/3 over 64 hands. I saw him minbet/call a flopped top 2pair on every street a few hands before.

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so stop calling him a lag then. Seriously.

VPIP of 31%. Gotta include hands like 89,67,K8,Q8,J8,7T in his range.
I think it's fine how u played it.

Alright, last night I was a bit tired and have had more time to look at this hand. Let me give you this piece, because there is actually a LOT happening here.

Commenting first upon LAGG description. This person has not raised pre-flop over sample you gave. He can not make up for his leaking pre-flop play by playing slightly aggressive on the flop (i.e. donk betting a flop)... A7o even on the button 4 handed is marginal... but the fact that he called an UTG limp cold while short-handed is a HUGE leak. He needs to raise or fold this hand, and I'm folding 95% of the time unless stack-sizes or meta-game dictate otherwise if I'm him. In terms of generally picking spots, I would wait until I am button and he will limp whatever, if I have a +EV hand I just raise it standard or even a bit more to really hedge it once I have position on the man and better cards than him.

When I think of LAGGs, I'm speaking of a more truly aggressive player. One that will make you make decisions for your stack. Let me say this completely honestly to you as somebody who has played through the microstakes and I only say this with experience. This person's play is very passive to be honest on every street. If I have two pair on that turn, and I consider myself a LAGG / TAGG mix-up depending on the table, I am getting much much much more money into the pot unless I am putting you specifically on A8 and then bet/folding the turn (and even this hand-reading would probably have to be over 75% reliability, and I'm never really that sure I'm beaten over the internet in this spot, because like I said, there are so many A10, AJ, AQ, AK combination out there that don't beat you but would be right to be betting, c/r or c/c from the big blind depending on the game on the flop and even the turn.

This is key to identify that this is not a good player for a few different reasons, because it dictates the rest of your play in this hand and the rest of your matchup. For example, a true LAGG will let you know when you have the worst hand generally by raising his two pair when he actually hits it, because you'll be thinking he's bluffing and make a bad call even if you think you're beat.

The flop play of this "LAGG" is SUPER weak here unless he has you read on a specific hand. He should raise the flop to a) get you to fold out certain aces and draws that can counterfeit his hand, and b) get value from AK, AJ, AQ, A10 / JJ, QQ, KK, anything else you are raising the big blind with if you are playing tight and he thinks you're bluffing at the ace. But he calls, which means you could have bet 910s, and when you hit a straight on the turn he is still calling, right? So he is playing against your theoretically optimum range poorly in general here (unless there are metagame considerations). This is a mistake you must recognize and take advantage of, they are everywhere in blind play at this level.

You asked for help in putting together his range here, and to do that we should look at a few things. First, his pre-flop play. He calls from the button, we're not sure if he is positionally aware, but we can start with what somebody might play four-handed from the button. His sample is enough to say some things about him (http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...on-t90178.html). You've done good in listing some candidates. But let a true LAGG put together a range for you similar to what I might play from the button (if I was bad and calling and not raising... lol. :)) That way you can possibly apply this later against a true LAGG and not a looser player. For now we will ignore the fact that the UTG player limped because apparently he was only kidding about playing in this hand.

Judging by the pre-flop play, I'd also include the range you did of KK-99,T9s, JT... but this is too limited. This is a positional play essentially, and you are not realizing that he will call basically any raise based on position alone here. So preflop include into this range T8s, T7s, JQs, JKs as well as KQo and Q10o, Q10s, Q9s, Q9o, Q8s, Q7s, J6s, J7s, J8s, 34s, 45s, 56s, 67s, 78s, Kxs,, etc.. Also, he really should only be playing A8o+ and A2s+ of course, but if you want, you can think of a7o as "air" and it becomes playable.

As you can tell, his range is really wide at 31% and he is right to do it if he can do it with raises and you'll fold out worse to CBets. But we're not going to give him that much benefit of the doubt as a thinking player because of his pre-flop action, to be honest, so we are going to play a more straight-forward game based on +EV and definitely NOT get in a cock-wagging war with this guy, because that could be disastrous. You want to take more flops with this player and play them better than him while in position. I promise you this.

So the flop comes, and an ace is there. Well, that is really cool for you, because a huge portion of his range is NOT aces. So he should be folding or raising more often than not here. So a standard lead bet of the pot should define his range a lot more, which is what we want so we can make the more profitable play. In terms of the technical aspects of the play, the reason we bet this is to a) define his likely range, b) because we could very well have 80% equity, and c) because we have a backdoor straight draw if we are behind, and if that six hits, we are going to be able to play the turn and river very strongly, getting him to fold out a lot of hands with our bet-sizing and stack off when we hit our draw.

"The point is that he's agressive with his marginal hands and capable of bluffing with air while he immediatly starts slowplaying when he does hit a monster."

Cool, good to recognize. So he has a leak. Exploit it by value betting, which is all I'm really recommending here. This two pair is not a monster, especially on this board. He needs to raise the flop unless he has you entirely read on an ace or lower pair, which he shouldn't if you are playing a +EV game from the big blind that is mixed up enough to include a drawing hand or two every now and then. Calling is +EV for him in this situation, but also +EV for you in general as long as you make the right decisions. From his perspective calling can really only have a greater expectation if you fire 3 overbet barrels on a bluff or losing hand. He needs to be getting more money in the pot, thinning out draws that can be priced in through calls, etc..

Okay, in putting together his calling range now we need to take a quick look at his AF. It is 3.0, so if he is calling rather than raising here, he is likely not calling loosely. He is betting and raising 3 times for every 1 call. So out of the times he invests, he is betting or raising ~75% of his range and calling only ~25% of his range that continues. This is CRUCIAL. It means he is probably calling fairly tight, with a combo draw, top pair good kicker, medium pair good kicker, two pair, trips or perhaps an open-ended straight draw (all of these, would better use a raise here most likely.)

***

P.S. In the future you can now make an adjustment after he calls your bet on the flop. Exploit this by defending some of his steals (not too many) with 10Js or 910s and firing two barrels for your draws and mixing in a lot of value bets with your better hands, because if he is not going to charge you for it when he actually hits, just set your own price so that you are controlling the pot size, not him.

P.P.S. You asked about checking this flop to induce bluffs, let me tell you why I disagree with doing that completely. I bet the pot here because the draws simply can not call profitably, so they need to raise, and you can fold this pretty easily to a semi-bluff if you don't think he's doing it too lightly. It *may* get out a lot of his 108s 107s sort of thing too depending on whether or not he thinks you'll fold to a raise, either way you'll see how this defines his range quickly and prevents that 9 or even a 5 from falling on the turn and leaving you stuck. I wouldn't be surprised if his aggression factor is actually a bit skewed because he min-bets supposedly, and I would guess fairly often just based on the general play at this level. Either way, betting actually induces better BLUFFS for you to call for value than checking, simply because if you check he will bet and you are out of position and at his whim and he can suck out or price you out with an overbet on the river where you will possibly fold the best hand. You can also bet the pot to 66% or so if you'd like and that may induce even more bluffs if he thinks that bet sizing is weak. It is situational and highly opponent dependent. Either way, if you lead here, you can pick when you want to run a bluff-catching hand better by betting.

***

So knowing that he is calling pretty tight and combined with your prior read, we can now give him a fairly loose range on the turn of things he'd call a flop with. Note that there is a bit of uncertainty, because we're not sure he'll raise with his medium pairs to try and get you off a weak ace or not, or what he's folding exactly... So that is more of a read-based thing.

Let's look at what might call here and why and just group them that way.

Combo Draws / Draws / Low Pairs
J8s, 108s, 107s, Q8s, Q7s, K7s, K8s, 910o, 910s, 56s, 67s, 89s.

Medium Pairs

99, 1010, JJ, QQ, KK

Top Pair + Kickers

A2s-A6s, A2-A6, A9+

Two Pair

78, A7S, A8S

Trips

77, 88, AA

If you do some Pokerstove work on this turn, you can see that we are Win: 54.7%
Tie: 7.5%
Lost: 27.6%

Against this range. So we have narrowed it to here for the turn. I don't give him credit for raising his draws if he is not raising his two-pair, so we include some of those in there because sometimes you simply have to stick around and see how the turn is played.

I bet here to save money on check/calling two streets against the whole range including bluffs. So if I bet 60% pot and I am breaking even on the bet from equity alone, I may have him fold out some other things, but more than that, we are making it easier for ourselves on the river. I decide to bet the turn because I don't think he is clever enough to try and float two streets based on his aggression factor.

If he calls, or "slow-plays" here, we're likely behind and can check fold the river with relative certainty and still be making a profitable play, because we've likely narrowed his range to about 17 hands that we don't have great winning chances against but may have anywhere from a 1 in 4 to a 1 in 3 chance of winning at showdown depending on how skewed his range is toward drawing hands.

I would actually suggest that he practically eliminates a bluff possibility here by calling on two streets at this bet-sizing, and he will certainly be value betting a checked river which we figure he will only do with pretty good hands if we size the bets as I've suggested. We bet a bit smaller than the pot on the turn to make him think that something like j8s, q8s, 108s, 107s, etc.. may still be good and marginally playable here for that price, while still pricing out his 910s, 910o, sort of hands from drawing without a raise. So we keep some of the hands with showdown value in, this is probably 25% of his turn range for calling if he thinks you're running a bluff (so you should probably also be bluffing about 25% of the time, btw...) you have showdown value and he may be sticking around to see if a draw completes and he is showing down his pair.

I hope that makes sense based on what I've discussed so far. If he wants value to play his A7o garbage he really needs to have huge implied odds that we are simply not giving him with this line, because we intend to fold to a raise on the turn and likely on the flop as well. That is really the problem with these a5o sort of hands generally. If you have AJ, you can reasonably play passively here and check/call two streets and think you're good. But with the five you can't take that line. Which is why I suggest you play it hard here. If you check the turn you are letting him dictate the action here and probably calling anyway because you think he's bluffing. You are actually hoping he is raising or folding the turn to be honest, because your decision becomes really easy then, and we really like that when we have bad holdings out of position.

If he doesn't raise or fold the turn he is still looking to disguise his monster, he calls knowing that you think your ace is good and throws in a pot size value bet on a blank river, so a c/f is fine there... his line is not very good for extracting value out of his hands. You should be thanking your lucky stars basically any time in a pot with this player IMO.

So my recommendations:

- Value bet more if he will be calling and not raising, this gives you the pot control.
- Bet bet bet, nothing fancy against somebody who isn't thinking about these kinds of things.
- Out of position if you take my line, you have also set up for a check/raise on the river when you have trips, because he will be wanting to value bet the river no matter what anyway here.
-MORE HANDS IN POSITION AGAINST THIS PERSON! :)


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"PS: Don't think I'm trying to undermine you or anything, I just don't agree with this post."

-No worries friend, we're all here to learn! :) hope all goes well for you.

Ok saying he's a lag might be completely of. I feel like we're drifting of a bit so let me rephrase my question: Is he calling or raising with hands like clvacva said 89,67,K8,Q8,J8,7T. That's what I'm asking myself.

If he's raising alot of those (which I saw him do a few hansd ago) I'm better of with a c/C
If he's calling these (and weaker aces) I'm better of with a Vbet. Now, from seeing this hand you might think he's a Loose CS, but I'm not so sure about that (from previous hands I saw him play)

you see here lies the problem. I saw him betting out hands like that, but I don't know if he's doing that all the time. The sample is rather small.

ugh HH hurts my eyes.

raise preflop, look to c/c a street or 2 and try go to SD.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by holdenthefuries

No. CBetting Weak Aces when you've hit is good.

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Could you explain this (assuming a relatively dry board). Especially rethink the part where we get value from weaker aces when we hold A5.


@OP: Whats the laggiest thing youve seen him do? Im not sure how you label him as a LAG when he hasnt raised preflop once yet. His AF isnt outrageously high and with the number of hands you have on him his "true AF" could well be something like 1.5. On the flop and turn theres some decent (but fairly thin) value in a bet. He can call with plenty of straight draws and a couple of weaker aces. He probably doesnt call the turn with like 89 but he could do. Maybe even like TT sometimes.

On the river the straight draw missed. If he backdoored a flush draw with like 6:club: 7:club: then it missed. I think most people are unlikely to call 3 barrels even in a limped pot with a middle pair, so really the only hands a bet gets value from are A3, A4, maybe something like TT if youre lucky. Thats just about it. On the other hand he doesnt seem incredibly passive, so if you check he could bet missed draws hoping for a fold. Hes also pretty likely to check behind with some of the weaker one pairs that beat you like A6 or maybe even A9. Finally, since stacks are wayyyy bigger than the pot, we would expect him to have raised strong hands like sets/ 2 pairs before the river so he has a chance of building a big pot. I think we can c/c here (but expect it to check through a lot) and see better aces a fair bit but also missed draws pretty often too.

"Could you explain this (assuming a relatively dry board). Especially rethink the part where we get value from weaker aces when we hold A5."

A dry board would suggest checking is better. On this board texture though we have a lot more fold equity in general firing two barrels, especially with a backdoor straight draw out there. However, heads up against this type of player I generally like to lead a lot with most of my range dry or not. The more you bet at aces, weak or not, the more you set up for him to fold when you have KQ, KJ, and other misses, while extending the impression that you have a lot of aces and weak ones in your range. Sometimes you will face raises though that will keep you honest while leading, which often will require an accurate play as well and may take a few thin calls or 4bets to slant play in your favor again for your range.

Every now and then heads up I will check/raise weak aces on the flop even, because doing so keeps a player who likes to bet a lot with air honest or making unprofitable drawing hand calls. He is either shoving over the top because he has the nuts (sets or top two pair) or he is going to usually fold to a check/raise. If he calls, he probably has an ace or strong draw so you can evaluate turn from there, but trips are also an option for smooth calling rather than shoving. Most of the play I have suggested is more generally a set up to lead with other hands in your range, because this player will give you a lot of value when you hit a set or straight by calling with things like two pair rather than raising on the flop.

How much of his range is a2, a3, a4? I don't think it's enough to justify checking the flop too often with the intention of calling rather than raising. A lot of times the correct play here with a weak ace can be to c/r the flop because a lot of times you'll be dealing with jacks or tens or even kq from utg and the button that will fire out a standard cbet to see if he is good. This sort of play will also allow for the occasional C/R with air, so it's a decent balance here even with as weak of a hand as TPLK.

Another line that is good for this particular type of hand in your range is bet, check turn, check/call river if you feel that will keep more draws in and improve your showdown value. I agree that raising pre-flop is the right play with the weak ace, btw, to take initiative as well as take the more aggressive line in general. Against this type of player, I recommend checking your weak draws and if they look decent on the flop, playing an aggressive line, while with your weak aces and pairs and strong draws (910s, j10s, qj/qjs), etc.. you can raise pre-flop and play the line aggro that way. He is not actually investing much equity in your blind. Raising p-f also will help define whether or not you're dealing with pocket pairs, kq, or aq or something like that from the UTG player in this particular situation, if they cap or re-raise pre-flop, they've made a positional play and you can easily fold.

"If he's raising alot of those (which I saw him do a few hands ago) I'm better of with a c/C."

Still bet flop, he isn't raising pre-flop so you have to define the range by this, otherwise you're at his range's mercy. If he does raise with air + weak draws, you may want to call his raise, check turn and call river bet if you reasonably think you're ahead, or you can fold to a semibluff if you are scared of it / it's not profitable.

You can catch bluffs this way and him inflating a pot with missed hands is also good for you.

Obviously if we know he will never continue with draws after a second barrel, then our showdown value is hurt, which is why we check/fold river and hope he stays in through two barrels a certain percentage of the time. If we know with certainty that his draws don't stay in on the river enough, we can check the turn and call a decent river bet to keep them in. It really depends on how he'll react to the turn check... I submit though that it hurts your range if you give up too much on the turn here against this player who will likely sense weakness (though that is obviously a set-up for a later play if you want).

The reason I like bet/folding the turn is simply because we set up future plays for huge amounts of value if he thinks that we are aggro and will bet into him. We want to reward him for this type of play against us, because when you make a stronger hand you will extract maximum value from out of position (which is another reason to raise pre-flop, make the pot worth drawing for / betting at).

We make him show the strength of his hand by checking the river and seeing if he wants more value or if he checks behind that is fine too because we've controlled our investment based upon reasonable equity estimates.

"89,67,K8,Q8,J8,7T. That's what I'm asking myself."

Considering he is connecting two pair on the flop 1/49 times, and he is connecting a pair about 25% of the time that is not a pair on the board, I think it is reasonable based on his Aggression Factor (which includes 25% calls) that he is likely calling a lot more with pairs that hit at all than exclusively two pair. That sounds obvious, but my guess is that he is raising the flop more with air than anything else. You also have to take into account that we are leading here, so his calling range in position is going to be different than his bet/raise range out of position or if everything gets checked to him on the flop. Does that make sense? Take note of what he is calling with when you see showdowns against him, but don't assume he has two pair every time he is calling in position, I'm including a lot of pairs, medium pairs, etc. for that reason.

Like I said though, I do not think it is likely though that he is floating two streets on you. He is calling 25% of the time, so if we think of the likeliness of him calling two streets it is about 1/16. So we are dealing on the river with a range that is fairly defined and your read from earlier about two pair suggests you can reasonable check/fold this if a big enough bet comes out on the river, but he may check behind still with smaller aces. His range does not have more small aces than medium pairs, simply in combination possibilities alone.

Remember that he is probably not showing up with two pair at this river from the flop too often here, he could be showing up with a pair often enough to make betting the turn worthwhile until proved otherwise or exploited (which we have a plan for if he begins doing). Besides which, when we bet this turn we really are setting up a play for us using the odds of us hitting our draws and getting paid off by him due to this play for our ENTIRE range.

For example, you have 910s from the big blind, so you raise it over his limp from the button to 4 BB, he calls so the pot is 8.5 BB now. You hit the same board and he has the same type of hand. You have 30% equity in this situation vs. the top pair range. So you bet the pot because more often than not he is missing the flop and you've been raising from the big blind with weak aces and strong aces, so a good portion of his range folds. He probably folds to a continuation bet here enough to make this play alone profitable or break-even when you lead.

If he calls, we may say he has an ace, a middle pair or a draw. You are drawing to the nuts though, so we want to keep his draws in really because it's unlikely that much of his range is blocking your draw after the flop bet (see why this is good for your draws also to bet here? Also, consider your aces / weak aces as drawing hands with showdown for kicker battles in the high card game and you can see why leading this flop is a pretty good idea to block out a lot of other aces that miss the flop like in this particular situation (i.e. a king and three had come rather than an ace and seven, does that make sense?).

Back to our situation, IF he calls the flop, we now have 24.5 BB in the pot. On this turn, you bet 16 BB here whether or not you've hit, because your range consists of aces that are usually ahead of his drawing hands, so you want to charge him when you have each have those respective holdings. I suggested you also bluff occasionally here, because for him to break-even on the river, he simply will HAVE to fold some of those medium pairs once in awhile, otherwise you get way too much value from even your weak aces for him to stick around for two barrels every time.

If we check here, we give him a free card if he's drawing, we allow him to bet if he has the nuts and he can still check behind planning to bet the river with two pair the size of the pot where we'll be priced in to call. If he folds this turn, you've invested 20 BB to win 24.5 BB, a 4.5 BB ROI. What percentage is he folding this turn? Well, he probably has to fold out about half of his draws that blank on the turn, so I'd guess this second barrel is working pretty well here against his range.

If he calls the turn the pot is now 40.5 BB. We generally have an ace, so we check/fold the river with the weaker aces if we're pretty sure in his line that he has a big hand and check/call with things like a10, aj, etc. (we may call a small bet perceived to be a bluff with a5o to encourage his value betting this river as you will see why...), and our range is likely to win anywhere from 40% of the time to 60% of the time if we consistently make a play like this against a loose player at showdown alone. So based on showdown alone I think we're probably coming in against his likely range with our FULL range, not this specific hand, about a coin-flip.

So if he doesn't fold out to two barrels, I suggest that ~50% of the time on the river, we are going to win a showdown if he lets us get there. Investing 20 BB to win 20.5 BB about half the time, so that is even if we get to showdown and we have put together his range accurately. If he is folding out 33% of his turns / range, we may be 33%/66% to win at showdown, so make your check/calls + check/folds based on this and other river reads. Either way, betting the turn will be profitable here simply because of the fact that he needs to fold certain turns and you save money on his river bets because of a more defined range.

But we assume that he will not let us just check every river and get to showdown, so we set up a play by either planning on check/raising nut hands here, or by betting the river depending on how we think we'll get most value.

He knows that he can not fold that often on the river or we will be getting the best of him in this play too often, so he will be compelled to call or raise... but he will also be compelled to value-bet the river for the same reason so since we are leading, we can force him to make a mistake here because of his weaker range and our stronger range.

Back to our example of 910s, let's say we hit our draw on the turn with the straight so we bet 66% pot as we have been doing, he calls so now the pot is 40.5 BB. We get to the river and depending on how we want to vary our play, we can bet here or check depending on how scary the board might look for his holdings. With a hit draw, I'd tend to bet here a lot, because he's calling three streets with hands we get a lot of value from, two pair, sets, etc. We can also check/raise our own sets / two pair on the river to balance our range and set up a slew of profitable river plays. But against this opponent, I tend to just bet/bet/bet/raise to get as much money in when I have a monster, and follow similar lines when I have showdown value because if he doesn't want a coin-flip at river against most of my range at showdown then he has to value-bet on a checked river more often than not, which I can profitably c/call, check/fold or check/raise depending on my holdings and the situation + certain metrics like my perceived bluff frequency, etc..

Also, my bets will very likely be overbets at the river. For example, on our straight example, I am going to lead that third barrel because MOST of his range (I think I stated 75% if he is folding his mediocre holdings on the turn) as discussed earlier can call most bets and often has to if he wants to remain competitive on the river and not get pushed around by my aggressiveness. So I may want to really make him indifferent to calling or folding here so I can also incorporate bluffs here as well. I may bet on that straight 60 BB into the 40.5 pot. If he calls, I've invested 60 BB to make 105. BB which is equal to a 56.8% ROI out of our 32% of flop equity. Not a bad margin. (Keep in mind also that we are actually hedging pre-flop 4BB to win 8.5 and have 48% equity, so that is also a winning play, but notice the exponential amount our margin has increased here.)

Betting the turn allows us to hit our straight MORE OFTEN than checking, because some bets we will not have equity to call, which is why he needs to be raising more turns and flops, I doubt he will adjust at this level. If he is folding on the river to our overbet frequently, then we simply do it EVERY NOW AND THEN with our more TPTK sort of hands run as bluffs because if he is trying to bluff catch with a7 for example you still outkick him, but they can also profitably be checked, so depending on your more specific hand reading, you can make the most accurate decision in your estimation. I would tend to bet hard on made hands the river (trips, top two pair, straights, flushes) really often, given that he called your river bet with a two pair holding on this particular hand. So the reason I've suggested the line I did is not simply for this hand, but for your entire range against this particular villain if he is calling bets in this spot like he is.

Does all of this make sense to anybody else? It's not so much about this particular hand's result as it is about how to play against a villain that sponges and won't raise the flop when he has, "le nuts." (Which he doesn't really have here...)

http://img2.timeinc.net/toh/i/a/buye...-sander-01.jpg

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I'm trying to pick it up right here.

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What the hell does that even mean.

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Hands we beat: ATo+

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Wat.

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Since he's not calling with worse.

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Then why are you betting?

Holdenthefuries, your whole post is pretty confused. You need to figure out if you are value betting or bluffing and go from there. If you are bluffing you want better hands to fold. If you are value betting you want worse hands to call. There is no "betting the turn to make his gutshots fold". That makes absolutely no sense.

Also from what I can gather, you advocate spewing off with weak one pair hands to set up bigger pots with strong hands. Thats exactly what fish do (although they dont think about it in those terms). Fish are not winning players.

^^^^

Holden, with all due respect, I dont think essays are helpful to anyone...

major words per post records itt

"Also from what I can gather, you advocate spewing off with weak one pair hands to set up bigger pots with strong hands. Thats exactly what fish do (although they dont think about it in those terms). Fish are not winning players."

I'm not trying to be overly defensive here, I can see how you would think that. I am not saying checking the turn is a bad play. Let me try to explain my thought process as rationally as possible here. It is more of an issue of position and blind play than that I am advocating betting every turn with a weak made hand. Let me explain myself. I will try and keep it brief... but perhaps I've been playing too much heads-up recently for this to make as much sense as a play for the full-ringers, or if it is even applicable to low-blind games, but this action that I've proposed is done so because of the following.

a. We have a weak loose player to our right.
b. This loose player believes he can be aggressive on many flops to steal pots, but does not hedge equity pre-flop.
c. Against this specific player, our blind represents 7 holdings in which we will have position on him.
d. This player will not charge us when he hits his hand hard.
e. This player has a stack of 100 Big Blinds.

So consider this hand from the blind as the weakest part of your range, or air, which I would consider it.

Observation 1: Your opponent realizes that he can play at your blind by simply limping on the button when nobody else has raised.
Observation 2: Your opponent is open limping 31% of his hands.

Conclusion: Your opponent could be possibly limping a huge range based on his position and the fact that there is only one opponent before. We are now three-handed, so it wouldn't be unreasonable from the button to be opening up to 45% of his hands, however, he can not do so profitably if he does not raise pre-flop. This suggests to me that when we get to this spot against this particular villain, and given no answer to this question, and therefore no way of gathering range estimates, we make a hypothesis about how we can use our pre-flop behavior to manipulate this villain into making the most mistakes now and in the future.

Hypothesis: If you hedge the pre-flop betting, your opponent will either call, fold or raise. We guess it unlikely he will raise unless his holdings are an anomaly in comparison to his 25 prior holdings he has played. If he calls, then for his decision to be profitable he must play a tactical line correctly against you from the beginning, that means that more often than not, his pre-flop equity needs to be correct to call your raise pre-flop against your range, and that he needs to make accurate decisions on the flop, turn and river in regard to implied odds against your real range, and not your perceived range. (Note: we are not giving him our real range on this play.)

So to continue accurately here, our actual pre-flop equity needs to be decided vs. Villain's range.

(80/20 vs. lower kickers = 48 combinations of ace x)
(20/80 vs. higher kickers = 128 combinations of ace x)
(45/55 vs. pocket pairs 22-55 = 23 combinations)
(30/70 vs. pocket pairs 66-kk = 56 combinations)
(10/90 vs. pocket aces = 3 combinations)
(55/45 vs. medium cards = ~130 combinations...)
(70/30 vs. low scs = ~20 combos)

= 0.43370098 % equity vs. villain's pre-flop range (only 31% of holdings... we may be able to extend it but let's be conservative until we know otherwise). So we have .433% equity, we meet this situation pre-flop with 3.5 BB of dead money in the pot and can check or bet.

If we raise, we invest 3 BB into a 3.5 BB pot and are are investing in five things:

a. initiative & isolation
- We now lead the betting in this hand with the intention of isolation on the flop or pre-flop. If we are flat-called by two men pre-flop, our cbet will generally hold even more weight if we lead it, so we can usually get this turn down to one player if not the win it on the flop by this procedure alone, regardless of our actual holdings. If we get raised or called on the flop, we must evaluate accurately from here and generally slow-down and make accurate river decisions. Note: I am aware that this play in this particular hand is completely marginal and read-dependent! Make it if you trust your decision making... but even if you lose this hand you shouldn't be too worried.

b. pot equity
- If our plan to isolate is successful pre-flop, we have invested 3 big blinds to win 6.5 big blinds, which requires 0.46% pot equity against his likely range to continue. This is a -2.7% margin, so to make this play, we are depending on implied odds post-flop + outplaying our opponent via procedure and range manipulation, but additionally raising becomes a better play here because of...

c. fold equity
- Which is decent here against the UTG player simply because you hold an ace, blocking many of his potential limp hands here if he is positionally aware (aq, ajs, a10s). We are most likely now looking at KQS, 99-QQ. Either way, if an ace or high card falls on the flop, we can cbet and be relatively certain where we stand, unless this individual floats and is clever (which means you need to adjust, obviously).

But given our pre-flop play and if we trust our post-flop decision making, if the two players fold pre-flop at least 2.7% of the time, this is a break-even play. Since we are dealing with a weak range from the button, I'm gambling in an instant here that these two players will fold more than 1/20th of the time and that this raise will be a good way to cut losses in general from the big-blind against a limper and a cold-caller.

d. hedging our aggressiveness and relative position vs. his passive play and absolute position with the intention of setting up our implied odds game, establishing our table image and using our relative position as insurance to pace our profit and reduce losses.

We prefer to have our blind not stolen, especially to something as weak as a limp, we really ought to defending this blind with an ace. But playing passively is not the way to do it for a few reasons IMHO.

By seizing the day here, we are going to make it less likely that he or other thinking players on the table try this play in the future, we want them to have to work for it and to shrink their range they are willing to continue with against us so we can make more accurate decisions down the line.

If we isolate the button as in this situation pre-flop, a good portion of his continuing range is going to contain holdings that our range is ahead of when an ace, king or queen hits (even if we don't have either of those cards, because so often we have the high card when nobody hits, etc..) so a Cbet will often take it down when we lead. If we check this flop often, are you comfortable making that super-thin hero call with ace high on the river? A good opponent will make you make those decisions. This cbet will often be a value bet in the high-card / draw game game as well, by the way since our actual range is going to be skewed a lot toward A10+ and other QJ, J10 sort of things.

We also have insurance due to our relative position because even if he is taking our 20 BB investment now (firing flop + turn), we have position on him ~80% of the time at this table and he is playing marginal holdings without a raise more often than not, so we are going to have a lot of spots to pick throughout the game.

We are making this play TO SET UP our implied odds / value-betting game from the big blind. Not necessarily against this particular villain, but against all thinking players at the table. And again, I note that usually I am playing live poker or heads up nowadays, which is more read-dependent and you can make much thinner plays... so if you feel at this stake it is not necessary (i.e. less thinking players, worse reads due to internet), then do the more sensible thing. I'm not saying my play is the most accurate for your given situation, I'm just drawing out why it can be done profitably from the big blind and the reasons you might do it.

e. Deception + Range Manipulation

We are going to set a price on our villain and the table obtaining inaccurate information about our big-blind + leading range. We want them to think our range includes weaker made hands going for two barrels, making players tend to call lighter in the future on the flop if they want to not be exploited by our raise+lead procedure. Or they will have to play tighter pre-flop, either one is good for our blind play.

This maneuver therefore is expanding the range of marginal hands that call the flop cbet while behind (i.e. 108, etc.) against us that CAN and must fold out on the turn to a two barrel sometimes. Since we've bet the pot on the flop, his calls start becoming pretty marginal, but since we're playing marginal stuff from the blind, he is basically forced to call other times due to our turn bluff frequency being very dynamic due to our flop bet size (and we determine this frequency basically based on how often they are going to be calling our flop with worse than the top pair) and mixing it up with a lot of value bets on the turn with top pair, like this particular hand but when we generally have a better kicker.

What the players at this table don't realize is that our range generally will consist of strong hands against this villain, (A10+, A5s+, KQs, AA-22, QJS, J10S, 910S, and sometimes we're going to be playing A10o and below, as in this case as well as a weaker suited connector and stuff like 107s, 108s, etc.. which are generally run as bluffs).

Also, by betting both the flop and turn as I've suggested prior that these are indeed value bets on this play, albeit thin generally. With stuff like 107s, we are also playing implied odds, so it's a nice mix-up of all of it.

If this play fails, we have simply used 20BB by the turn to "advertise," our range for this line while commanding the tempo of the blind play rather than letting the weak button player set his own price relative to his holdings. But if you've looked at my analysis in earlier posts, these are also thin value bets against his range of 31% holdings, not just advertising for the sake of advertising. So either way you slice it there, if you can make good decisions on every street, this should be a solid way to go about this business, if you need to.

Essentially we are going to force the weaker player to decide whether or not we're value-betting thin, bluffing, semi-bluffing or have a made hand. Either way, since he's calling so often with an unstable holding rather than raising, I'm tending to bet a few streets, see where I stand (and even when I think I'm behind I can profitably check the river and make good decisions) and advertise in the process to the rest of the table, so that they make more mistakes regarding my blind play, or steal it less often.

Sorry again for the lengthiness... I hope it helps somebody out there someday. I advocate using sensible air like this to manipulate ranges and advertise deceptively. Not spew. Do what you're comfortable with, obviously. :)

haven't read the absurdly long responses itt, but I like b/f flop, c/c turn, c/f river (if he bets turn, if he checks back then c/c river)