Turn line?

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11-02-2009, 08:29 AM
Outlaw

Turn line?

Villain 12/6/2.0 over 80 hands. First pot we've played. My bet sizing sucks, I realize that.. but I was trying to not be committed should he shove the turn.. instead he lays me 3 to 1 and I have a pair and 9 outs to the nuts. Ship turn or just call? His play me looked like a poorly played AK, KQ, KJ, set, or some kind of combo draw.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG+1 ($28.60)
MP1 ($52.30)
MP2 ($26.05)
MP3 ($44)
Hero (CO) ($25)
Button ($26.80)
SB ($25.10)
BB ($29.50)
UTG ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
5 folds, Hero bets $1, Button calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, Button calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.55) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2.15, Button raises to $5.50, Hero ?

This is my guess on a pokerstove. I added AA/KK because a lot of peeps slowplay big pairs at 25NL.

Board: 6d Kc 5d Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.424% 49.42% 00.00% 1631 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 50.576% 50.58% 00.00% 1669 0.00 { KK+, JJ, 66-55, AKs, KJs+, 87s, 43s, AKo, KJo+, 87o, 43o }
11-02-2009, 08:45 AM
Da GOAT

you can take out all his draw type hands. check you range vs his made hands then check you equity to hit
11-02-2009, 10:24 AM
Outlaw

Quote:

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

you can take out all his draw type hands. check you range vs his made hands then check you equity to hit

Board: 6d Kc 5h Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.586% 26.59% 00.00% 503 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 73.414% 73.41% 00.00% 1389 0.00 { KK+, JJ, 66-55, AKs, KJs+, AKo, KJo+ }

So this is a clear fold since we don't know if he'll stack with all of these hands should the flush complete? And there is very little FE against that strong of a range so I can't shove?

Man I suck at math but it looks like folding is right unless I am missing something.

Thanks goat.
11-02-2009, 10:27 AM
Da GOAT

no thats looks solid. id very much doubt villian will get aggro on turn even with the very best combo draws.

sure its possible he could be running a pure bluff like 10% of the time but you still gotta fold even if he bluffs such a %.
11-02-2009, 11:06 AM
Outlaw

Quote:

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

no thats looks solid. id very much doubt villian will get aggro on turn even with the very best combo draws.

sure its possible he could be running a pure bluff like 10% of the time but you still gotta fold even if he bluffs such a %.

Any idea how much equity would make continuing on the turn profitable vs a strong villain range?
11-02-2009, 11:24 AM
Da GOAT

wots your equity to hit a flush. thats wot u need to break even, any better than that is great. you can accept worse odds slightly if you think you can get a modest bet from him on river.
11-02-2009, 03:55 PM
settecba

Am I missing something? Hero has enough pot odds to draw.
11-02-2009, 04:13 PM
Carroters

Yeah surely this is an easy call given pot odds + implied odds.
11-02-2009, 04:16 PM
Outlaw

Against a strong range that you think will call a river bet, its a call I think. But if he won't pay off a flush, its 3-1.. we need 4-1 right?
11-02-2009, 04:19 PM
Kbryce23

A nit raising on the turn means atleast JK imo. You have 3:1 direct odds and he is probably betting any river. What I'm not sure of is when you hit should you be shoving or check-raising. I think a c/r is better because his range is so strong and he's probably firing the river. Also, it's a backdoor FD so it is a bit more disguised.
11-02-2009, 04:20 PM
spoonitnow

8 outs to the nuts*

For everyone who is like omfg this is the easiest call in the history of shit that's easy to call I think you're likely to be over-estimating our implied odds and under-estimating our reverse implied odds. I think it's somewhat marginal but I still call because I never make bad folds.
11-02-2009, 05:25 PM
settecba

Why are you saying we have 3:1 direct odds? Its 4.28:1. Still not enough for heros NUT outs which are 8 as Spoon said, but still its a call.
11-03-2009, 09:11 PM
Kbryce23

Quote:

Originally Posted by settecba

Why are you saying we have 3:1 direct odds? Its 4.28:1. Still not enough for heros NUT outs which are 8 as Spoon said, but still its a call.

3.64:1 direct odds?