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After a 10 BI downswing over the last 3 weeks, I'm now just under 15 BI for my current level. Previous to the downswing, I was running 8 BB/100 for about 17k hands.
I'm still confident in my game, although I do plan to take a break just to make sure my head is on straight when I do sit back down. My question is simply, if I continue to run bad at what point should I be looking to drop down? I'm currently rolled for about 35 BI at the lower level.
I say drop when you reach 20 buy-ins @ no limit - 15 is way too few, especially in today's environment no matter how well or poor you are playing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by angrystoc
How come so many people actually exclude so called "downswings" when it comes to their winrate?
It's called denial XTR, its where our money comes from.
35BI is more than enough for the lower level.Quote:
Originally Posted by angrystoc
i think 15BI is a bit too little for a certain level,so drop down a bit,grind and then take a shot again.
FYP.Quote:
Originally Posted by angrystoc
Not saying that it's for sure what happened... just saying it's worth considering.
You should probably have dropped down by now. Further, if you were winning for 17K hands, and you only got to 25 buyins you probably started pretty underrolled.
It depends what level you're playing at and what your full bankroll / funding situation is.
For example, if you're playing NL 5 and your roll is $75, you could drop down to NL 2. However, if you're willing to add say $50 that's currently in your e-wallet , bank account or pocket, that may change the picture. Your effective roll is actually $125, so if you're using a 20x guideline, you can still play NL 5.
If youve lost 10 buyins at any stake and it doesnt include losing more than your share of coinflips or getting 2 outered a few times you probably need to think about dropping down and reevaluating bits of your game. Its possible to be playing a winning game and lose 10 buyins, but when it happens (and especially when it happens to a pretty new player) the chances are theres something wrong with your game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Arjonius
I'm going to throw something out here that may be total crap, but here is my initial thought on your post...Quote:
Originally Posted by angrystoc
If you are uncomfortable enough to ask, you should drop down. If you don't, and play where you remain uncomfortable, it will affect your play.
But I'm not a great player, so I may be full of crap.
Yeah, that was my thought too. It's just so depressing to think of grinding back to 20-ish buy-ins at the lower level.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty3038
Also, the reason I say it's running bad, and not just coming off some statistically improbable heater, is that for the last week HEM shows my expected All-In EV at +2 BI and my Cash Winnings at -9.5 BI. I've reviewed all the big losses, written down ranges, ran them in poker stove, and being results oriented sometimes I see where I could adjust my range. I realize I should drop down... just don't want to, that's why I posted. However, I will.
It's not that your running bad that he was debating, it's that nobody counts the running good as separate from there winrate like they do the downswings. Imagine someone saying "I was an 8BB/100 winner until I had that heater and won 16 BI's in 6K hands". Both heaters and downswings are all part of the same winrate, so to think your an 8BB/100 winner and not count the downswings is just ridiculous and sets you up for a fail when your thinking you are actually able to beat a limit underrolled.
A statistically improbable heater is about as likely as a statistically improbable cooler. All this being said... 20K or so sample really isn't much either way. I wouldn't put too much stock in the All-in EV stat, 'cause as I understand it, it only measures the EV when the final money went in... not the EV vs a range of all the decisions that preceded it. Plus it's based on you knowing exactly what villain had... which you don't... so I'm not even really sure that it's worth much of anything outside of entertainment value....
But you're doing the right things... reviewing big hands, etc. So be brutally honest w/ your game and, if you're feeling off kilter, dropping down to get some confidence back isn't the worse thing you could do by any stretch...
I switched sites, and don't know how to combine the graphs in HEM.
(And yes, I realize that switching sites could definitely affect my win rate. However, I considered that, and decided that if that were the case, HEM wouldn't show my EV as positive still.)
Sarbox, that's definitely true about EV, but I think it goes both ways. I had a hand against a laggy villain yesterday where I got it all in on the river with the nuts straight, only to have the villain show down with a full house (pocket Aces). Villain was obviously at the tip top of his range, but I got my money in with good equity vs. his range. However, HEM's EV stat will show that as me getting my money in dead.Quote:
Originally Posted by sarbox68
I'm not at home, or I could post the HH.
Which is all the more reason why I believe it's a POS stat....
Post your stats so we can evaluate it.. you might have an assload of leaks and if so, it does you no good to drop down because the leaks will still be there when you move up again.
drop down
Coupla things.Quote:
Originally Posted by angrystoc
1. To combine stats in HEM, you make an alias and put the usernames from both sites into one alias username. Then all your stats get displayed when you look at graphs or reports.
2. HEM has the Sklansky bucks EV stat in the reports, just not in the graphs. You can look at the more standard "Equity EV" stat by customizing your reports to ditch the all-in EV and instead use the Equity EV. Unfortunately, I haven't found a way to reconfigure the graphs to show a useful EV stat.
3. Drop down. If you're a solid winner one level down, 10 BI's (to get you back up to 20 BI for the current stakes) won't take all that long. Your confidence is obviously sketchy right now, or you wouldn't be posting. Even if you only grind out a dozen BI lower down, it will massively change your attitude when you hop back to these stakes in a few weeks.
Normally a question like this means you know you should drop down, but you dont want to because you're sure its just about to turn around. Just move down.
This limit should be set when you move up. In other words it should already be part of your BRM plan. For me, at micros I moved up at 20 and down at 15. No exceptions. At small stakes I move up at 30 and down at 25. Its personal, but once set it shouldnt change based on whim or feeling.
hi there..im a beginner..dunno much abt poker but would love to learn..a term i recently came across was pocket rocket..is it relevant to poker
Ooh, me first! Me first!
Sometimes I gots da nutz, I weak c-bet to rep a bluff, random donk smells blood and shoves. As I reach for the little slider, I feel a pocket rocket beginning to form.....
Dash, could you be more specific in ur reply..i din get a word of what u said..lol..anyway...thnx
Dash, could you be more specific in ur reply..i din get a word of what u said..lol..anyway...thnx