3-betting AK OTB flop decision 25NL

Villain is 22/17 over 36

He's been fairly active preflop, taking down a lot of pots uncontested, no real reads other than that.

My thoughts:

Preflop: Even though he is opening UTG, I think it is better to 3-bet/get it in with his stats. Since he called, I guess I can put him on the following: 66+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo

I wanted to 3 bet to isolate IP and figured the limper will fold the majority of the time.


Flop: I am just not sure what to do because I'm not sure how he views my range. I 3 bet preflop yes, but I did so from the button. I am 3 - betting a UTG raiser, so my 3 bet range should be tighter, but I do not know if he thinks like this.

I also don't think I can get folds from 99-QQ (I included AA and KK in his preflop range, but I think they can be discounted due to his fear of the limper overcalling preflop with good odds)

Of course since I have no reads villain could be a complete drooler for all I know and think none of this....

A few things:

1) Was my 3 bet size enough? I thought I should maybe bet more due to the limper getting good odds if UTG decides to call.
2) What should my plan be on this flop? Remember villain's stack size is ~$16



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($43.30)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($7.25)
MP3 ($28.55)
CO ($14.70)
Hero (Button) ($31.20)
SB ($25)
BB ($35.60)
UTG ($19.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/ks.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/ah.gif
UTG bets $1, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1, 3 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($8.35) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/2d.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/4s.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/5c.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ???

I would still Cbet here. There's still a 3, K ând A that can hit you on the turn to improve your hand vs 77-QQ and you're so far ahead of AJ/AQ/KQ/KJs type hands.

If you check you're likely to only do one thing - improve his hand! So I would always generally Cbet the flop around $5.75. You say he's been taking down hands without showdown and he's checked UTG on that flop - that would indicate to me he's got air, or the nuts. Obviously a lot of the time it's air vs his range.

That's just me, though.

This really comes down to how often you think he will check/shove vs fold with a mid-PP. I think given the stack sizes and his aggressive tendencies its quite likely that he does with 77-99, and its very likely he does with 33, 66, TT+. Given that most of his unpaired hands will have an A we have more outs to improve when behind than he has when we are ahead. The A hitting will also often allow us to stack AQ when he would otherwise have gotten away. I think Id check this one.

Its one of those spots where if you bet and he folds, we were probably ahead anyway.

edit: I forgot to mention, if he's tight to 3bets we are even more screwed.

CBet

I agree with Dannyboy. You're likely ahead of him on the flop so put your money in there.

I am Kind of confuses about this hand.
Versus the range that caddie assigned AK has 50% equity.
If we get c/r assuming he does it only with overpairs we are at 32%
Even if villain c/r with AK/AQ and all overpairs we are at 42%

Not sure what to do.
b/c because we are gonna be between 30% to 40% equity vs villains c/r range.

check back since we have alot of equity and are trying to let villain bluff with KQ,AQ or hit our hand.
Then if we do check do we bet when villain checks, fold to his bet, shove over his bet,call?

What worse hands call us here with a cbet?

I generally like to take a free card here. There is little of his continuing range on this flop that we get to fold.

By the way, the statement "Even though he is opening UTG, I think it is better to 3-bet/get it in with his stats" will get you in a lot of trouble. Make sure you check his UTG range. A lot of good players will run 40/38 on the button and like 6/6 UTG...

If you CB and he calls (which he's likely to do with JJ+) you're kinda stuck playing for the full eff stack... so decide if you're willing to do this first and foremost. There's really only 2 streets of betting given his stack size, so you can a) keep the initiative and do like a 1/2 PSB Cbet, then consider folding to a shove or chk/raise, b) chk the flop, but then you're either playing AK/AQ face up or getting tricky to induce a Turn bet from vil. If you chk, are you going to call a Turn bet from him on a blank, as he's likely to fire w/ a missed AK/AQ/KQ among other hands? You may be stuck chk/calling for 2 streets. Which is why I prolly prefer the 1/2 cbet, folding to a raise/shove and then peeling the turn for free when he checks to you again. At least you'll have a shot at a) getting him to fold whiffed overs or mid pockets and b) have a shot at getting to the river before you have to commit the rest of your stack.

Oh... and given those stats, your range for UTG, esp calling a 3b, seems a little wide...

i like checking behind here. seems to be a way ahead/behind spot and at these stakes i doubt he's folding anything that beats us, plus we have the gutshot + two overs as outs against most of his range. if we bet he either

a)calls/jams with the part of his range that has us dominated (all pairs)
b)folds the part of his range which is drawing dead to three outs (aq,ak,aj,kq)


i doubt he check shoves air here, but if he does, thats a tough call with AK high getting roughly 2:1

also, history indicates he may raise a wider than normal range preflop, but does he really call 3.5x 3bets OOP with 66+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo?