Overbetting pots with known calling stations

Another big pot with the same villain as my Calculation Check thread.

Over 196 hands he's 86/29/2. Sees over 80% of flops. A large portion of his raises are min-raises. I can't recall seeing him raise more than that, but I'm sure he does.

The hand plays out as follows:

$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($4.95)
CO ($20.05)
BTN ($1.85)
SB ($7.75)
Hero ($5.89)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 5 players) Hero is BB :qh: :qs:
1 fold, CO raises to $0.04, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, CO calls $0.36

Flop: :9h: :js: :6s: ($0.81, 2 players)
Hero bets $1, CO calls $1

Turn: :5c: ($2.81, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $4.49, CO calls $4.49

River: :ad: ($11.79, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Villain min-raises (his usual move). Knowing he'll call any re-raise, I blow it up to .40. I want to get my money in while I'm sure I'm ahead.

His opening raise range is HUGE. Almost literally any two. Any two broadways, any SCs of any size, any pair. So I'm ahead of him way more than I'm behind here.

Not a bad flop. No overs. I overbet the pot betting $1 into .80. As I'm quite sure I'm ahead here. When he calls I've got him on A9,AJ,A6,Jx,9s,6s (I may even give him K and Q 9,J or 6 here) maybe he'll draw to an OESD or FD even without getting right price. Or maybe he hit his set and I'm f'd in the A.

Turn improves nothing that I'm putting him on at this point so I just shove. The pot is almost $3. I am going to be all in on the river anyway as only have $4.49 left and I'd rather get it all in now before seeing a scare card on a river.

Is this aggro betting spew? Setting myself up for much bigger losses when his draws/hands luck out? Should I keep just pumping money into the pot as long as I'm reasonably sure I've got the best of it and just let the cards fall as they do or bet reasonable like I would against any other opponent to limit losses when he catches the cards he's looking for despite the poor odds to do so?

I'll post the results later.

You played this hand beautifully imo. You are getting your money in here with way the best had when he calls, its pretty epic that you've found a donator like this. Keep pumping the pot with your big hands, but when a bad card falls, you HAVE to be willing to let it go, otherwise you offering him terrible odds accounts for nothing. Have discipline.

Very well played.. Overbetting against a obvious calling station for value is uber standard. Preflop is solid. On the flop you have a nut hand against his far weaker range on a drawy board, you can stand to bet even larger here as he's obviously not folding a pair, and there are quite a few draws he isn't folding either. Probably make it like $1.40, then turn is an obvious shove of just a little over PSB.

I like this, just be aware that if you do it too often too soon even the fish will pick up on it, but then the chance you get big hands often enough is kinda low. NH.

stacks, I definitely could've bet bigger on the flop against this guy. There's a 99% chance (conservative) that I could've pushed the flop and he'd have called with his OESD. I've seen that already. I've seen him call and all in with only AKo on a board that is nowhere near hitting him.

bjsaust, agreed. I guess my next question to that would be since he'll obvious pay ridiculous amounts of money to see his draws happen, how do I mix it up? If he's going to pay, should I not just dump my money in there and let him make the mistake? Push on the flop if I think I'm good? Do I check/raise a guy like this? He's definitely betting if I check.

Unfortunately for me this time around, villain showed up with 8c7c and I got hosed when he hit his OESD on the turn. That's how she goes, I guess. But I feel good about this hand, overall. Luck was just on his side.

Few quick thoughts. If he's calling larger, then bet larger. When you are putting in a value bet, your goal is to put in an amount that when called by his range will yield the highest overall expectation in the long run. If he is going to call $1 with any pair or draw, and is going to keep the same calling when you bet $1.50 or even $2, then as you can see, if you are ahead of that calling range, the largest bet makes him make the largest mistake.

Just a note, betting larger for value doesn't always apply, because their will be times when villains will adjust their calling ranges based on betsizes, so you will want to bet an amount that gets the most value from the widest range, or the most likely range. Here thought, against this particular villain, he's so bad, that it's highly likely he either knows nothing about pot odds, or just doesn't care. So he calls with way the worst of it almost regardless. Bet whatever amount he is willing to put in on the flop.

Your strategy against such a villain should be pretty simple. You should only be betting for value, as he just isn't folding. If you have a strong hand do whatever possible to get the money in. If he's betting everytime when checked to, then check/raising him when he has the initiative is a pretty standard play. It allows him to put in money with the widest range (his value range and bluffs). If you have initiative it's probably just best to bet/bet/bet as his calling range is so incredibly wide. Also, your value range should widen because of this.

Also, don't worry about losing this hand. You are way ahead of his calling range on the turn, so in the long run you make money here. Plus, we all knew you lost the hand because (1) you posted it which is generally a good tell and (2) the other HH thread this villain had like a $20 stack.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dranger7070

You played this hand beautifully imo. You are getting your money in here with way the best had when he calls, its pretty epic that you've found a donator like this. Keep pumping the pot with your big hands, but when a bad card falls, you HAVE to be willing to let it go, otherwise you offering him terrible odds accounts for nothing. Have discipline.

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I completely agree