AK vs Nit FR 25NL

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10-15-2009, 11:00 PM
caddie444

AK vs Nit FR 25NL

Villain is 8/6 over 600

My thoughts:

Preflop: I didn't want to 3-bet/get it in vs this nit

Flop: I basically think he is c-betting a lot of his range on this flop, so I am c/c'ing for value/pot control

*the flop range I give him - > 44+,AKs,AhQh,AhJh,KQs,AKo

Turn: I'm still in c/c mode as I don't think leading is right. I considered c/r'ing which may be better...

*the turn range I give him after he double barrels - > KK+,JJ,55-44,AKs,AhQh,AhJh,KQs,AKo

I have about ~45% equity so I am calling for value

River:

I guess my plan has to be c/f if he shoves because I don't have any reads that he is turning his draws into bluffs...

*his range for shoving river - > KK+,JJ,55-44,AKs,AKo

since I am crushed by this range (like 17% equity) I should fold if he shoves right?

I realize that reads would help, and I have no idea how but I have no notes on this guy... and I do take notes... major fail on my part :facepalm:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($32.05)
Hero (BB) ($25)
UTG ($29.20)
UTG+1 ($9.60)
MP1 ($6.35)
MP2 ($25.35)
MP3 ($71.65)
CO ($14)
Button ($33.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/as.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/kc.gif
3 folds, MP2 bets $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.10) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/5d.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/4h.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/kh.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $3.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.25

Turn: ($9.60) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/jd.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $6.75, Hero calls $6.75

River: ($23.10) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/5c.gif (2 players)
Hero checks
10-16-2009, 12:24 AM
Kbryce23

I play it the same and c/f to a big bet on the river. Not sure if that is right and it sucks bad, but I don't think hes vbetting worse on the river. I think he even checks back AK.
10-16-2009, 12:34 AM
TheBowlBoy

8/6 guys don't usually fire two barrells without at least tptk.
If he shoves the river I can't see you being good ever because he probably takes a showdown with AK or KQ some of the time.

I understand your reasoning for not 3betting this but I think flatting oop is going to lead to a lot of situations like this. Its really hard to get paid off by a nit like this with a hand that is mostly just good for making tptk. When we hit and villain fires 3 barrells you have to ask yourself why you're calling in the first place.

I think I like 3betting here. Most of his range is flipping with us so I don't mind if he folds a ton here. He'll probably only continue with JJ+, AK so we can fold out all the smaller pp's in his range. I doubt he will 4bet anything less than KK+ so I don't see a problem with a 3bet/fold line.
10-16-2009, 12:42 AM
al yell

Quote:

Originally Posted by caddie444

I should fold if he shoves right?

I don't know if you've come across this before but in case you haven't check it out > How To Analyze Calling An All In by spoonitnow. Therein you'll find your answer.
10-16-2009, 12:55 AM
caddie444

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBowlBoy

I think I like 3betting here. Most of his range is flipping with us so I don't mind if he folds a ton here. He'll probably only continue with JJ+, AK so we can fold out all the smaller pp's in his range. I doubt he will 4bet anything less than KK+ so I don't see a problem with a 3bet/fold line.

I didn't even consider a 3 bet/fold line... doesn't that put us in like a super tough spot if he decides to just call?

Quote:

Originally Posted by al yell

Quote:

Originally Posted by caddie444

I should fold if he shoves right?

I don't know if you've come across this before but in case you haven't check it out > How To Analyze Calling An All In by spoonitnow. Therein you'll find your answer.

Yah thanks I have come across this thread and know how to do the computations... I was basically just seeking insight on the ranges I had given villain on all streets. I realize its a fold based on the range I had given him on the river if he were to shove...
10-16-2009, 04:38 AM
ClairvoyantX

Disclaimer: I'm a NL2/NL5 player, take my opinions with grain of salt, well tons of salt really. But hopefully I can comment :)

Why wouldn't nit 8/6 fire two barrels? He plays tight aggressive poker, hence VPIP being close to his PFR. So cbetting is pretty much expected from him. True, it's a wet board with two potential draws but he still can cheaply gauge where you stand by betting. He bet 3$ into pot of 3. That means you and other limper need to fold 50% of the time for him to break even. Something I think is very likely against such a nit.

Explain your reasoning for calling flop? I am not sure if I am missing something, but you are pretty much lost and no card truly helps you. King? He can have a set, Ace? He can have a set/AK/aces, heart? You have no heart. Anything else? You have no idea what he has. Your only hope was that he'll shut down and you'll be able to check it down.

I mean look at the range you gave him. *the flop range I give him - > 44+,AKs,AhQh,AhJh,KQs,AKo
You beat vast majority of the range. Yet almost no card on turn can be true help to you (as his range covers yours). Why not raise?

I would definitely 3bet preflop, or if I was bound to just flat call preflop I would definitely raise him on the flop. I don't have access to PokerStove right now to run some numbers but I am pretty confident you have equity on his likely flop cbet range (which is pretty much all he preflop raised at least IMO).

What I need even more explaining is call on turn. He didn't shut down, even a straight draw with AQ opened up. Sure, all would be fine and dandy if he checked river and showed QQ or air. But that's not going to happen. There were two draws on board that neither came and due to your passive behaviour you were definitely being put on one of those.

3bet preflop, king comes, bet flop he folds without a king.
3bet preflop he 4bets/shoves, fold
3bet preflop, king comes, you bet, he pushes, fold

Or if you flatcall preflop, definitely check/raise, if he shoves I might fold/call depending on other stats. What is his total aggression factor?

I definitely need PokerStove to do some good math, but for now this will do. Discovered it tonight and I am amazed, I think I'm in love for the first time :)
10-16-2009, 10:55 AM
stonyman

Throughout this hand you gave up the initiative and played the villains game. He knows what he has so he is going to keep bet, bet, betting until you show him otherwise.

I don't know where you got the 45% equity on the turn but this is what I got when plugging in your given range into pokerstove.

Board: 5d 4h Kh Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.828% 14.23% 12.60% 144 127.50 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 73.172% 60.57% 12.60% 613 127.50 { KK+, JJ, 55-44, AKs, AhQh, AhJh, KQs, AKo }
10-17-2009, 12:08 PM
caddie444

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClairvoyantX

Explain your reasoning for calling flop? I am not sure if I am missing something, but you are pretty much lost and no card truly helps you. King? He can have a set, Ace? He can have a set/AK/aces, heart? You have no heart. Anything else? You have no idea what he has. Your only hope was that he'll shut down and you'll be able to check it down.

I mean look at the range you gave him. *the flop range I give him - > 44+,AKs,AhQh,AhJh,KQs,AKo
You beat vast majority of the range. Yet almost no card on turn can be true help to you (as his range covers yours). Why not raise?

Well I figured that if I were to raise he is going to fold all the hands that I beat and if he shoves over I would be in a really bad spot, as his range for shoving over crushes mine.

I think this is a pretty easy c/raise with most opponents who are opening wider + c-betting a lot of flops since my relative hand value goes way up vs these type of opponents.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClairvoyantX

What I need even more explaining is call on turn. He didn't shut down, even a straight draw with AQ opened up. Sure, all would be fine and dandy if he checked river and showed QQ or air. But that's not going to happen. There were two draws on board that neither came and due to your passive behaviour you were definitely being put on one of those.

You don't think he is going to check his air and QQ on the river? Thats where I tend to disagree, though I'm relatively new to cash games so I may be wrong. I find it hard that villain would turn his hand into what is essesntially a bluff when it seems pretty obvious I have a king and am not folding. I also think its unlikley that he'll 3 barrel air here. Thats why I checked the turn.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClairvoyantX

3bet preflop, king comes, bet flop he folds without a king.
3bet preflop he 4bets/shoves, fold
3bet preflop, king comes, you bet, he pushes, fold

Or if you flatcall preflop, definitely check/raise, if he shoves I might fold/call depending on other stats.

3-betting pre and folding to 4 bet seems really bad
3-betting and bet/folding a king seems really bad
Flat calling preflop then check/raise + folding on King high flop seems horrible
10-17-2009, 12:36 PM
Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by ClairvoyantX

I mean look at the range you gave him. *the flop range I give him - > 44+,AKs,AhQh,AhJh,KQs,AKo
You beat vast majority of the range. Yet almost no card on turn can be true help to you (as his range covers yours). Why not raise?

Why raise?

(Hint: "We are probably ahead" is not in itself a reason to raise.)
10-17-2009, 01:16 PM
Muzzard

I don't mind flatting pre, turn is pretty close as I only see his barreling rang as AK/AA/KK/44/55 and I'm not sure he'd cbet JJ. I suppose he could barrel KQ and at a push KJ....

Pretty sure he'd not barrel AQhh, but depening on who it is, they may.

So Were chopping with 6combos of AK and behind to 6 combos of over pairs and 9 combos of sets. Pretty sure this is a turn fold if he's supper nitty.

If He'd all barrel KJ and KQ, then that's an extra16 combos we're ahead of, so I'd have to call turn and hope river comes a heart or he checks the bottom of his range or something.

Raing the flop is pretty bad coz his continuing range has us beat or choppipng bar the NFD.

If you told me who this was I could probably give you a better range.
10-17-2009, 01:35 PM
caddie444

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muzzard

I don't mind flatting pre, turn is pretty close as I only see his barreling rang as AK/AA/KK/44/55 and I'm not sure he'd cbet JJ. I suppose he could barrel KQ and at a push KJ....

Pretty sure he'd not barrel AQhh, but depening on who it is, they may.

So Were chopping with 6combos of AK and behind to 6 combos of over pairs and 9 combos of sets. Pretty sure this is a turn fold if he's supper nitty.

If He'd all barrel KJ and KQ, then that's an extra16 combos we're ahead of, so I'd have to call turn and hope river comes a heart or he checks the bottom of his range or something.

Raing the flop is pretty bad coz his continuing range has us beat or choppipng bar the NFD.

You basically summed up my entire thought process at the time the hand was played, except you did it in much more detail then I would ever go into in the heat of the moment.

Question Muzz: do you actually count hand combos and such during the middle of a hand? My thought process isn't up to that level yet...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muzzard

If you told me who this was I could probably give you a better range.

O rly? I'm away from my HEM data base for the weekend, will let you know Monday... You play teh 25 nolimitsss?
10-17-2009, 01:43 PM
Muzzard

Quote:

Originally Posted by caddie444

You basically summed up my entire thought process at the time the hand was played, except you did it in much more detail then I would ever go into in the heat of the moment.

Question Muzz: do you actually count hand combos and such during the middle of a hand? My thought process isn't up to that level yet...

Yeah I do, but most decisons don't really need it. I think this one does .

Quote:

Originally Posted by caddie444

O rly? I'm away from my HEM data base for the weekend, will let you know Monday... You play teh 25 nolimitsss?

Yeah I got a pretty big DB of players at 25. I'm poker_muzz, you've probably played me recetly. I play 50nl too.
10-17-2009, 10:11 PM
daven

Re: AK vs Nit FR 25NL

Quote:

Originally Posted by caddie444

Villain is 8/6 over 600

*the flop range I give him - > 44+,AKs,AhQh,AhJh,KQs,AKo

something about your ranges or reads doesn't quite add up.
if his pre-flop ranges are really so wide that this flop range applies then you should really be 3-betting pre rather than playing AKo multi-way and out of position.

Further, if you are calling AK and are unhappy with the strength of your hand when you flop TPTK then something is badly wrong...

as for not having notes = standard, and they won't help much here anyway.

turn is interesting.
As played just shove river.
10-18-2009, 08:35 AM
Muzzard

Re: AK vs Nit FR 25NL

Quote:

Originally Posted by daven

Further, if you are calling AK and are unhappy with the strength of your hand when you flop TPTK then something is badly wrong...

as for not having notes = standard, and they won't help much here anyway.

turn is interesting.
As played just shove river.

lol, this guy is so tight and probably isn't that aggro post flop to be betting 2/3 streets with worse. Pretty bad advice to shove river.
10-18-2009, 09:01 AM
daven

Re: AK vs Nit FR 25NL

op - add pre-flop ranges. You did a good job of narrowing the range on each street, but you forgot to provide a pre-flop range from which to narrow.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muzzard

lol, this guy is so tight and probably isn't that aggro post flop to be betting 2/3 streets with worse. Pretty bad advice to shove river.

meh, maybe. Maybe i'll convince myself that i'm wrong if i write a longish response.
op has provided no indication that villain is not aggro.

If everyone is happy with giving villain such a wide pfr range then this should definitely be a 3-bet pre.

If villain is such a passive nit as everyone is claiming then JJ isn't in his range once he bets the flop. If it is, then so is QQ. In fact, QQ is more likely. Same reasoning makes 44/55 borderline for a raise pre-flop, but keep them in if you must.

so shall we apply another range. If we allow 55 then we allow KQ obviously. How about a river range thus: KQ/AA/AK/KK/44/55 - and this is assuming no AJ/AQ type hands which fold/sometimes spew call a shove.
8xKQ
3xAA
1xKK
6xAK
3x55
3x44
we lose to 10combos, we beat 8 combos, we split vs 6. He's calling all these hands if we shove. Pot odds ez game.

ok, can't check-fold cos of his play until this street and pot-odds.
like i said, turn play is interesting. hand ranges are ridiculous for a 6% pfr, but assuming these are accurate then river check-call is about the same as betting, with the added benefit that shoving looks like spew cos hero's line screams flush draw.
10-18-2009, 11:15 AM
Muzzard

Re: AK vs Nit FR 25NL

Quote:

Originally Posted by daven

op - add pre-flop ranges. You did a good job of narrowing the range on each street, but you forgot to provide a pre-flop range from which to narrow.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muzzard

lol, this guy is so tight and probably isn't that aggro post flop to be betting 2/3 streets with worse. Pretty bad advice to shove river.

meh, maybe. Maybe i'll convince myself that i'm wrong if i write a longish response.
op has provided no indication that villain is not aggro.

If everyone is happy with giving villain such a wide pfr range then this should definitely be a 3-bet pre.

If villain is such a passive nit as everyone is claiming then JJ isn't in his range once he bets the flop. If it is, then so is QQ. In fact, QQ is more likely. Same reasoning makes 44/55 borderline for a raise pre-flop, but keep them in if you must.

so shall we apply another range. If we allow 55 then we allow KQ obviously. How about a river range thus: KQ/AA/AK/KK/44/55 - and this is assuming no AJ/AQ type hands which fold/sometimes spew call a shove.
8xKQ
3xAA
1xKK
6xAK
3x55
3x44
we lose to 10combos, we beat 8 combos, we split vs 6. He's calling all these hands if we shove. Pot odds ez game.

ok, can't check-fold cos of his play until this street and pot-odds.
like i said, turn play is interesting. hand ranges are ridiculous for a 6% pfr, but assuming these are accurate then river check-call is about the same as betting, with the added benefit that shoving looks like spew cos hero's line screams flush draw.

There no real point in discussing what his opening range is, because its just going to be lolstandard range. NOt saying I agree or disagree with whatever anyone put coz I didnt read it.I never discussed it as it's not really releveant in the hand. The turn bet polarises he range so much, that it's obv the top end of his range and he's not goign for thin value with QQ or AJ or something. The only non-made hand he could be barreling here is like AQhh.

I assumes as he's so tight he's continue range to a 3b woudl be pretty small, assumign he folds to 3bs like 70%+, so there is no point in 3betting him really as he's calling range is goign to be too tight to get much post flop value and he's obv just going to 4b us with like AA/KK only.

I never said JJ was in his range post flop.

I doubt he calls KQ 100% and what if a scary card like an A or heart comes for villain, it sure wont be 100% a call.
10-18-2009, 12:56 PM
daven

Re: AK vs Nit FR 25NL

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muzzard

I doubt he calls KQ 100% and what if a scary card like an A or heart comes for villain, it sure wont be 100% a call.

? the river has already come 5c

i'm interested in people's thoughts on the river range i put villain on in my post above. There is no way we can check-fold this river, so doesn't betting make most sense cos of the value potential from KQ. Or does anyone think he checks behind AA here or 3-barrels a bluff = the only arguments to check-call instead of bet, right?

i also don't understand what people have against 3-betting pre rather than playing AK multi-way and out of postion.

Quote:

Originally Posted by caddie444

You basically summed up my entire thought process at the time the hand was played, except you did it in much more detail then I would ever go into in the heat of the moment.

if you're going to count villain's possible hand combinations then you should take care to note the blockers and count the combos correctly :)
10-18-2009, 02:21 PM
kpreston

Quote:

The turn bet polarises he range so much, that it's obv the top end of his range and he's not goign for thin value with QQ or AJ or something.

Can you elaborate on this for me? I'm having a hard time grasping why AJ wouldn't play this way.
10-18-2009, 03:36 PM
Kbryce23

A 3bet seems good with more reads(Is villian positionally aware, is cold-caller a fish), but with no reads I flat vs an 8/6 nit. He probably isnt calling AQ to a 3bet. As played I like the turn call because he could be betting AJ, QK, and QQ to protect agaist the draws. On the river after the draws brick I think he is checking back all hands we beat and AK. These types are so tight I see them check back AA sometimes.
10-18-2009, 04:08 PM
Gafferland

Re: AK vs Nit FR 25NL

Quote:

Originally Posted by daven

so shall we apply another range. If we allow 55 then we allow KQ obviously. How about a river range thus: KQ/AA/AK/KK/44/55 - and this is assuming no AJ/AQ type hands which fold/sometimes spew call a shove.
8xKQ
3xAA
1xKK
6xAK
3x55
3x44
we lose to 10combos, we beat 8 combos, we split vs 6. He's calling all these hands if we shove. Pot odds ez game.

ok, can't check-fold cos of his play until this street and pot-odds.
like i said, turn play is interesting. hand ranges are ridiculous for a 6% pfr, but assuming these are accurate then river check-call is about the same as betting, with the added benefit that shoving looks like spew cos hero's line screams flush draw.

Couple n00b Qs here:

1. What does 8/6 over 600 mean?

2. When you talk about combos and stuff above, what do the numbers signify before the hands, e.g., 8xKQ? What's the 8 signify?
10-18-2009, 04:33 PM
Kbryce23

Re: AK vs Nit FR 25NL

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gafferland

Quote:

Originally Posted by daven

so shall we apply another range. If we allow 55 then we allow KQ obviously. How about a river range thus: KQ/AA/AK/KK/44/55 - and this is assuming no AJ/AQ type hands which fold/sometimes spew call a shove.
8xKQ
3xAA
1xKK
6xAK
3x55
3x44
we lose to 10combos, we beat 8 combos, we split vs 6. He's calling all these hands if we shove. Pot odds ez game.

ok, can't check-fold cos of his play until this street and pot-odds.
like i said, turn play is interesting. hand ranges are ridiculous for a 6% pfr, but assuming these are accurate then river check-call is about the same as betting, with the added benefit that shoving looks like spew cos hero's line screams flush draw.

Couple n00b Qs here:

1. What does 8/6 over 600 mean?

2. When you talk about combos and stuff above, what do the numbers signify before the hands, e.g., 8xKQ? What's the 8 signify?

1. 8/6 are his preflop stats. He plays 8% of total hands he is dealt and raises 6%. 600 is the number of hands played with villian.

2. 8 is the number of QK combos there are. QhKs, QhKd, QsKs, Qskd,QdKs ,QdKd, QcKs ,QcKd
10-18-2009, 04:42 PM
Gafferland

Thanks.

Also just like to say it's post like this that make me really glad I found this place when I was in a period of thinking I was good at poker. I am not. I have a lot of learning to do.
10-19-2009, 07:38 AM
rpm

not sure how but ideally i find the fold button on the turn. especially given flop-bet sizing. i know 6/8 only refers to preflop but i find most players this nitty do not fire even the second barrel without a big hand. granted he may do it with AhQh but this combo is insignificant in his turn range and he may check it behind anyway to take advantage of position/free card. i severely doubt he raises KQ from anywhere but the button and i think he checks it behind for pot control on the turn. the turn range imo is AA,KK, and occasionally AhQh. which has us crushed.
i have a strong feeling he has AA.
10-19-2009, 04:26 PM
caddie444

Re: AK vs Nit FR 25NL

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muzzard

If you told me who this was I could probably give you a better range.

Villain is "Allz in FTW"

Quote:

Originally Posted by daven

op - add pre-flop ranges. You did a good job of narrowing the range on each street, but you forgot to provide a pre-flop range from which to narrow.

I figured since he's opening MP2 his range would be a little looser than his 6% PFR stat. I gave him a range of 22+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo preflop.

Is this a range I should be 3-betting OOP with AK? I mean stove has me as a 52% favorite but I doubt that is highly relevant... I think that his 4/bet stat along with his tendencies in 3-bet pots IP would be more important...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muzzard

I assumes as he's so tight he's continue range to a 3b woudl be pretty small, assumign he folds to 3bs like 70%+, so there is no point in 3betting him really as he's calling range is goign to be too tight to get much post flop value and he's obv just going to 4b us with like AA/KK only.

If his continue range for a 3 bet is small, wouldn't I be better to 3 bet/fold since I can put him on a very narrow range if he calls my 3 bet, and obv fold if he 4/bets?
10-19-2009, 05:40 PM
Muzzard

Re: AK vs Nit FR 25NL

Quote:

Originally Posted by caddie444

If his continue range for a 3 bet is small, wouldn't I be better to 3 bet/fold since I can put him on a very narrow range if he calls my 3 bet, and obv fold if he 4/bets?

Obv just 3bet him to fuck with loads of bluffs like a2s/J9s/Q8s watever.
Don't 3b a hand for value like AK and fold to a 4b thats's just silly.