AKs - to shove or peel?

villain is 25/11 over 74, pretty straight-forward player, though it was obvious he likes to limp a lot. This is the fist time I've seem him C/R...

A few things:
1) should I bet c-betting larger?
2) I'm not sure how much FE I have, is it better to shove or call?



I'm leaning towards shoving because if he just has a bare J I am a favorite, but if I just call and he overbets the turn I have to fold...
I still have decent equity vs his sets too...





PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($19.30)
UTG+1 ($25.35)
MP1 ($25.75)
MP2 ($25)
CO ($39.15)
Hero (Button) ($25.25)
SB ($12.70)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/kh.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/ah.gif
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.60) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/6h.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/2h.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/jc.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2, UTG raises to $4, Hero??? ($14 effective stacks)

This smells like a set to me based on the limp in EP and the C/MinR.

That being said with the effective stacks here I would probably shove over him on flop. If the stacks were deeper here it would make it a little different situation.

Def c-bet more, I'm thinking 2.75-3.25, you have a huge drawing hand atm and you want to either semi-bluff and take it down, or get it in and draw out with good odds. Once you call his c/r the pot is $11, so shoveling is just a little more than a PSB, so I just go ahead ship it here, you have 8 outs vs. a set, and 15 outs vs Jx plus any other random stuff he shows up with here, including a crushed FD.

Go ahead and stick it in. (Thats what she said.)

I just ran it through Pokerstove. And boy was I wrong. If you put him on having a set here are the numbers.

Code:

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Board: 6h 2h Jc
Dead: 

        equity        win        tie              pots won        pots tied       
Hand 0:        25.556%          25.56%        00.00%                  2277                0.00  { AhKh }
Hand 1:        74.444%          74.44%        00.00%                  6633                0.00  { JJ, 66, 22 }

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Based on this probably a call, you are getting 5:1. Definite call if you think he will pay off if you hit your flush. If you hit your flush on turn the equity is basically reversed.

But at times I am a complete spewtard donk, and this would probably be one of those times.

Meh, i prefer a call. We're rarely ahead here, we have no fold equity, and we're in position. Sure we can shove, and get it in vs a range we have like 40%ish equity against which is probably break even based on the size of the pot...or we can exploit villain's mistake by calling and seeing a turn card for fairly cheap and fuck up him up when a heart hits and make some trivial folds/calls based on his bets size when it doesn't.

Hard to say, would the min raise represent a steal? Would he really have top set?

I would just call in position, having around $11 in the pot without any turn action can easily set you up to take all the chips if your hand does hit.

Just call. Theres not a chance hes folding, youre just going to get your money in behind a lot of the time here.

I don't really understand why you guy's think we have ZERO fold FE here? Its a check/miraise. Yeah, its weighted towards being a strong hand, especially with him limp/calling UTG PF, but I use the check/minraise as a steal on these kind of boards all the time. It's not very likely to have hit our range all that hard, so it's hard to continue vs a such a seamingly "strong" line.

On that note, I don't have a problem with calling here either. But what do we do when the A or K hits and he leads into us? Are we willing to get it in? Fold? Call? I just think it saves a bunch of headaches when our flush DOESN'T hit, (which its not going to 65%+). Also, I highly, highly doubt, he shows up with JJ here. And his whole range isn't made up of JUST sets, but the fact that our hand has 25% equity vs a range that is SOLELY sets, should tell you somethign about the strength of our hand. Throw in a couple hands like QhJh, KJ, AJ, ThJh, 22-99, maybe TT and now we're talking.

147,258,144 games 0.220 secs 669,355,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.423% 57.86% 00.56% 85207288 824625.50 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 41.577% 41.02% 00.56% 60401605 824625.50 { 99-22, AJs, KJs, QhJh, JhTh, AJo}

Even putting in TT and JJ, we are still a 56% favorite on this flop. And there may or may not be more flush draws in his range.

Also, on another note, BECAUSE you c-bet so small (pretty much half pot) I'm not too surprised if he's fucking with you a lot of the time. Like, say you are him with a hand like 99 here. Most turn cards for you are bad, and heart, and anything over a T isn't good, best option for you = raise it up or fold. If I'm looking at a pussy ass c-bet like that, (it really looks like you're just trying to take it cheap) then I'm going to c/repop your ass all day too, since you are going to be folding quite a bit here. Just a thought.

The c-bet size is pretty key in this hand. As dranger pointed out, it's likely he might be min-raising as a result of your just over half pot c-bet size. On flops like this where you're looking to get stacks in, you want to c-bet larger for a couple of reasons.

1) We're not trying to c-bet to "get away with a cheap bluff" since this is a wonderful flop for us. C-betting larger is good because this is a wet flop in your favor.
2) You don't want to leave yourself committed on further streets after you've missed your flush and you've allowed him to shove his stack into you.
3) Your hand is soooooooted.

Also, lol @ assuming this fish only has sets. Even with several combos of sets in his range, your combined fold equity + pot equity is too good to play this hand timidly. An argument could be made for flatting since we're in position and we want to keep his betting range wide. But since he decides to get cute with the min-raise on the flop, I like raising over and sticking it in with a smile if he comes back over the top.

cbet bigger, call as played.
shipping seems kinda silly, why do we want to get it in against a range that dominates us? we are also expecting to get to the river for free vs his non-set hands for a better chance for extra value against the weak part of his range (as per the 15 outs vs the weak part of his range that dranger pointed out above).

do we really have the necessary amount of fold equity (=a lot!) to make shipping ok? especially as he most likely can't find a fold with a set on a heart turn? and given the likely trivial nature of any turn decision we will have to make?

put the money in the middle

My gut says call and hope for a heart on the turn. You will also get more info if heart misses since you have position. He may just have taken a stab and check turn.

You mention he is 24 / 11 ... I would look up his flop actions and turn actions to also help determine this call or shove. You can see is bet flop % and bet turn %.

The thing is, we're going to miss our draw so often on the turn, and have to fold to most action then. We have such monster equity vs this range on the flop, add in our FE (which I think would be quite a bit) and I think shipping becomes the most profitable play, because if we hit our A or K we can't be sure its good on the turn or river, and if we just flat we have a little more than a PSB left on the turn, and if he hit our A or K we're going to call a half pot bet, and the be pot committed on the river nd be screwed when the flush doesnt come in and he sticks it in.

I think it just saves us a lot of headaches getting it in here.

Looking back I think if we were deeper this is a call, but with these stacks I think we can profitably shove this in

he showed up with :6c: :6s: {acronym renton hates} and I stacked him

Being the results oriented person I am, I will now gloat on all of your souls. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOP!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

do we really have the necessary amount of fold equity (=a lot!) to make shipping ok?

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fwiw, Villain needs to fold precisely 1/3 (33%) of the time to a Turn shove when holding 66,22 to make this a break-even play.

correct me if i'm wrong, but isn't a shove +EV here if we can think of almost any hand except sets he is doing this with? this seems like a reasonable play for 77-TT which would prefer to c/r flop thus exploiting any air you cbet, and being able to c/f to any further action. reducing RIO etc etc.

all you can eat. NO way he has only a set.

it depends on who you are playing against. I usually just flat call vs nits but definitely 3 bet/ get it in on the flop vs donks and other aggro players who often overvalue TP hands or play aggressively with draws.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

cbet bigger, call as played.
shipping seems kinda silly, why do we want to get it in against a range that dominates us? we are also expecting to get to the river for free vs his non-set hands for a better chance for extra value against the weak part of his range (as per the 15 outs vs the weak part of his range that dranger pointed out above).

do we really have the necessary amount of fold equity (=a lot!) to make shipping ok? especially as he most likely can't find a fold with a set on a heart turn? and given the likely trivial nature of any turn decision we will have to make?

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Hey daven, why do we need a lot of FE here? I think his range is sets, worse flush draws, a fair few pocket pairs, some big Js (AJ, KJ, QJ) and maybe even AK/AQ (they hate laying down big broadways ever at 25NL). I don't have Stove here but I'd guess we have somewhere around 35%-45% equity against that. If our shove gets called we're getting 1.5:1. That adds up to not much (if any) FE required to make it profitable. And I think with that range we have quite a bit of FE.

If we just call, the pot is $11.60 with $14 behind, we're going to get a non-heart turn about 80% of the time, and when he bets anything over about half pot (which he surely will now he's c/r'd us on the flop) we're going to hate life.

I would shove.

EDIT: I would cbet bigger too - maybe $2.80 or so.

39.20 - 5% = 37.25

16 into 37.25 (after rake is out) means we need to win 43% assuming no fold equity. Just a thought.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by op

villain is straightforward

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we hold the Ah and Kh. What flush draws are in his range? We're already doing well against those draws anyway, we don't even want to fold them out....
Does he really c-r 77-TT on a J-high board?
He doesn't limp TT+ pre much, and if he does then we aren't doing that great against his c-r range anyway.

If we just call, we've called $2 into nearly $12, we have odds to call. The question is merely whether calling or shoving is better. There is nothing wrong with calling with pot-odds then folding when we miss = the whole point of pot-odds. Note that he will check a lot of non-heart turns with his non-set hands as well, so we get two streets for the price of one.

Shoving isn't awful, I just think that calling is significantly better in this spot. However, note that spenda disagrees and he's right a lot.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TonyB73

hen he bets anything over about half pot (which he surely will now he's c/r'd us on the flop) we're going to hate life.

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a lot of villains don't follow up their flop cr on the turn unless they have the nuts, standard read that applies against loads of sorta-reg-almost-not-terribad players

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dranger7070

Also, on another note, BECAUSE you c-bet so small (pretty much half pot) I'm not too surprised if he's fucking with you a lot of the time.

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this is important, cbet bigger.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dranger7070

I use the check/minraise as a steal on these kind of boards all the time.

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leak

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dranger7070

Being the results oriented person I am, I will now gloat on all of your souls. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOP!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!

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the result is that hero got his money in bad...

But he won.... :(

And you say, this is a leak becuz I use a c/minraise a way of picking off missed c-bets? On super dry boards (I wouldnt say this board necessarily), vs nit/TAG villains, that c-bet too often, c/minraise actually works insanely well. At least at the lower limits. I'm sure at the higher limits its going to be less effective, but at 10nl/25nl its a goldmine. Don't knock it til u try it imo.

barance??