I first posted this in my blog but it was suggested I post it here for the discussion that might ensue amongst those that don't browse that section of the forum.
At the risk of appearing like a total donk I will disclose my honest and precise thought process so it can be picked apart and critiqued. I caught myself being reluctant to do this out of embarrassment and fear of being wrong (despite having been wrong several times before in this forum). This is no doubt a big part of what has stunted my progress but I now feel I can go into it and I'm ready to receive and consider all opinions and constructive criticism. This in addition to the fact that I respect and trust many of the regular posters here. Still, learning to expose my vulnerability has been a challenge in my progression as a poker player. But I digress...
As it's been pointed out to me the whole premise of my plan for this hand breaks down when you consider my read on Villain, which is that he overvalues TP. But as I describe below I'd just stacked him at another table so I ask myself if he doesn't often immediately adjust, not wanting to stack off lightly so soon after - it's a gear I often switch to when I've just been stacked. I know the opposite argument is a popular one; him wanting to make his money back quickly, etc.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed)
BB ($9.75)
UTG ($10.43)
Hero (MP) ($10)
CO ($7.66)
Button ($27.85)
SB ($11.33)
Preflop: Hero is MP with 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
UTG bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 4 folds
Flop: ($0.95) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $0.40, Hero raises $1.28, UTG calls $0.88
Turn: ($3.51) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.76, UTG calls $1.76
River: ($7.03) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6.56 (All-In)
My real-time thoughts during the hand:
meta/gameflow: I'd just played a hand with him at another table. I flatted 99 from SB to his BTN raise then donked a AK9r flop. He raised, I shoved, he called and showed AQ.
pf: I'm flatting 33 initially for set value against his UTG range which I estimated was something like top 8% of hands: 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+
My flatting range here is something close to JJ-22,AQs-AJs,KJs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo
flop: He bets less than half pot on a board that is pretty scary for a significant portion of his range. So I raise repping strength or a big draw and immediately plan to b/f the following Turn cards: 6-T, any non-broadway diamond if he calls.
turn: when the 9 comes and pairs the board and its checked to me I just thought, "That's way better for me than it is for him." When he checks I spontaneously decided to bet half pot because I decided this was the best way to repp the nuts by making it look like I'm hoping to get raised or don't want him folding to too large a bet. But it was also the perfect amount to leave him exactly a PSB left behind if he should call. If I bet bigger and he calls he might be more inclined to get stubborn with an over-pair if he feels pot committed (if only for psychological reason as oppose to actual mathematical ones). When he flats I remember thinking, "He has an over-pair and doesn't know what to do or is playing a draw passively."
river: 8. Now, being a double paired board and seeing him check again, I think slowplayed straights, overpairs, missed draws are all folding, and I think he raises me on the flop with a set so I don't put him on a boat. I've shown strength the whole way, he hasn't, there's nothing left to do but put him to a decision for all his chips.
There it is, fwiw. This kind of shit is what happens when I'm playing too few tables. I get way way too deep in my own thoughts; too imaginative and not logical enough I suppose. Even if there is any validity to any of this it's been pointed out that it's "wasted" on this player. Maybe for discussion's sake we can imagine him as various types. Thanks in advance for your time. I know it may seem trivial but this hand wouldn't stop haunting me (the reason for which I'll disclose once the discussion has evolved a bit - maybe you've guessed already)
