100NL: to take the free card or not...

Villain 34/10/3 over 50

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com


Stacks:
UTG Muscar ($39.95)
CO tuco1979 ($106.40)
BTN Hero ($101.30)
SB ndguerre ($21.55)
BB lvebazooka ($113.35)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BTN :9d: :jd:
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, lvebazooka calls $2

Flop: :2d: :8s: :qd: ($6.50, 2 players)
lvebazooka bets $1, Hero raises to $7, lvebazooka calls $6

Turn: :4s: ($20.50, 2 players)
lvebazooka checks, Hero bets $14, lvebazooka calls $14

River: :6c: ($48.50, 2 players)
lvebazooka checks, Hero ($77.3)?


The minbet/call flop leads me to believe he's got a 2nd pair or weak TP or draw. I think I get enough folds from 2nd pair or worse to justify the second shell, though I probably wouldn't do this without the good draw. Checking behind seems good too, I'm not sure which is better.

My problem with giving up on the river is: no SD value, we wanna fold out better FDs & might get a fold from a stubborn 2nd pair tho I don't really expect a fold from a jack.

:?:

everything is fine, now bet 32 on the river

As you stated, this type of player can easily have draws here which makes the bet that much sweeter. i'd bet 45 hoping to get him off mid pair or maybe a really weak tp. Since he's in the bb i expect him to have a wide array of hands here.

I don't think you're folding a Q, but you could fold a better draw with almost any size bet I think, and an 8 with most bets so I'd make it $28.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by zook

I don't think you're folding a Q, but you could fold a better draw with almost any size bet I think, and an 8 with most bets so I'd make it $28.

---

agreed. vs this type of villain, hes never folding a Q and very rarely hero calling so a smaller bet is fine.

This line (from villian) usually means "I dont like my hand, but I'm too fishy to fold". I guess I bet the least that I think might fold his crappy hands and save me some money when he inevitably calls with 89 or something equally dumb. I definately take a note either way (if he folds or calls).

Waht they said, that donk minbet call is never a real hand. Bet the river and don't bet a ton, he is folding to almost anything you bet here. FWIW $24 only needs to win 1/3 of the time, do you think he folds here at least 1 out of 3? Bet $28 and smile.

I'm gunna be results-oriented here and say that Massimo wins the thread cuz I bet 28 and he snapt with J8o right in my face :x

Is there some special reason we should be double and triple barrel bluffing a guy who is probably a fishy calling station?

Unless I have a note that he's stacking off with tpnk or less, I'd rather raise and barrel than call and face a psb on the turn.

As played I pot the river. It's the scariest bet size there is. Betting half or 2/3 just gives him an excuse to call...
That's what I was going to say before I knew the results btw :D

As daven posted in the OP, I agree that against this mb/call line v's an unknown, they will fold enough times to warrant barrelling.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Is there some special reason we should be double and triple barrel bluffing a guy who is probably a fishy calling station?

---

First, this isn't a bluff, we have 13 outs vs any Q or AA. Second, I don't think you can ever 2barrel this situation, this is 3 streets or shut down after the C bet. I don't Cbet drawy boards vs stations unless I am betting all three.

As for the hand. With the range of hands he makes this min bet/call most fish have exactly a weak pair, Ax that he wants another crack at or a draw (9T, JT, J9, KJ). In any case, we aren't going to fold anything including a combo draw and we need to raise to not give him any free cards at his hand. Also, we can't check the turn and bet the river because our range of hands doing this would need to be strong enough that we aren't afraid of a river card scaring him or us. With a FD on the flop we almost have to bet our entire range. If we check the turn and bet the river that is usually enough for bad players to think they can call here with a decent pair since they almost always think you don't have a Q. We are barreling a Q almost always vs fish. So in order to win the hand when we brick the river we absolutely must fire the river, It's the only way we can win the hand for sure. We cant beat K high. The good thing is, we can probably bet almost anything decent and tke this down very frequently. If he folds this only 50% of the time, we only need to fire a 1/2 PSB.

I don't think he's folding to a bigger bet if he snapped with J8o. I'm guessing the bet size didn't matter. Take a note and adjust your bet sizes for the next time.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Is there some special reason we should be double and triple barrel bluffing a guy who is probably a fishy calling station?

---

our hand has no showdown value, but great equity vs his weak-ass range, so our FE doesn't even have to be that high to make this play +EV. Even stations fold their trash sometimes when shown a lot of strength.

Now if I'd have been c/r on the flop relatively big, then checked to on the turn I'd assume his range is stronger and my FE is closer to 0 so I'd take the free card on the turn.