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Boring hand
MP1 is loose and weak. I give him credit for hand pre, he is only raising pre with 5%, probably QQ+, AK.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($15.87)
UTG+1 ($1.61)
MP1 ($4.95)
MP2 ($1)
MP3 ($0.95)
CO ($1)
Hero (Button) ($3.22)
SB ($6.57)
BB ($1.35)
Preflop: Hero is Button with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/th.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/9h.gif
2 folds, MP1 bets $0.08, 2 folds, CO (poster) calls $0.06, Hero calls $0.08, 2 folds
Flop: ($0.27) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/8h.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/7c.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/2c.gif (3 players)
MP1 bets $0.22, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.22
Turn: ($0.71) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/6h.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.42, Hero calls $0.42
River: ($1.55) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/ad.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.64, Hero raises to $1.50, MP1 calls $0.86
Total pot: $4.55 | Rake: $0.20
Villain is only c-betting 45%, so I'm pretty sure QQ+ is his postflop range, but maybe AcKc as well
So I have 35.47% vs his range and I'm getting 2.23:1, but if villain has QQ+ and I hit my draw I should be able to get something for my effort, implied odds and all, but how much do I need to get here to make it a +EV play?
On the turn I want to raise his bet, but that generally sets the alarms off right. If I raise the turn then he thinks I either hit my set, str8, two pair or air. So he may call and c/f any river that he doesn't improve on, which I think is slightly less profitable then just calling and letting him make another value bet on the river. The only hand that I have him on post flop that can beat us on the river is AcKc if he hits a club, but I really don't think he has this when he fires the 2nd barrel on the turn.
River card isn't the greatest, but I got to raise anyways, I figure a good value raise that gets shoved over by AA is good. Do you think I can raise more here?
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raising the turn doesn't set the alarms off as much as the half of the deck that 3-flushes or 4-straights the board
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raising turn is kind of lol alarm bell, but he's a weak player so just raise when you hit
even if you raise half pot to 1.20 on the turn, that makes the pot 3 bucks on the river that you can shove
also bad raise amount on the river
even half pot raise is more than $2 and that makes me want to jam since you have like $3 left and that's smaller than a pot raise