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Line check - deep
villain is like 33/25 over 50 hands, stacked him once pre QQ vs AK CO vs button, pretty standard
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (UTG) ($263.30)
MP ($104.15)
Button ($328.25)
SB ($109.90)
BB ($40.70)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif
Hero bets $4, MP calls $4, Button calls $4, 2 folds
Flop: ($13.50) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $10, 1 fold, Button calls $10
Turn: ($33.50) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $26, Button calls $26
River: ($85.50) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $65, Hero calls $65
Total pot: $215.50 | Rake: $2
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Why not bet the river yourself? All his missed draws have decent showdown value so odds are you're not facing many bluffs on this river and he's going to check behind too often.
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I agree with Galapogos that you should b/f the river. Try to get value from his 1 pair hands (like KQ, KT) and you now beat all the 2 pair hands so just bet.
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As others have said, I don't get this river check.
His calling range is for sure wider than his value betting range here, and he doesn't have much of a bluffing range. on this board.
The only hand we're worried about is mostly QT, and QT was ahead on the flop and prob woulda raised already given board and stacks.
The only reason I would check here was if I thought I could c/r often, and get value from worse. I don't think thats likely though.
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I don't get any value from 1 pair hands if I bet, pretty much only looking to get value from rivered 2 pair hands (which he might even raise the river with which puts us in a really tough spot). If he had 2 pair before the river, I'm sure he would've raised by now. The check makes my hand look like KQ not looking to face a big bet, perhaps he can rep the ace if he was on a draw? It just seems like betting this river is super thin.
Is my thinking flawed?
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Your thinking is flawed mostly because non of these "draws" you speak of, have air and will need to bluff this river. Tell me what draw you think he has that will need to bet this river?
You think he's suddenly gonna wake up and raise a worse two pair hand on this river? It's very unlikely that AJ, KJ or anything like that will raise this river.
I don't really get the value in making your hand "look like KQ" when all the hands that will value bet versus a perceived KQ will call a river bet anyhow.
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Sounds fair.
I guess I'm not getting very much value on the river, but there are probably less hands on the river that will bet if checked to.
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Ya I have to say B/F river. I think if we are raised here we are always beat.