Statistical anomalies

I am wondering how others deal with these when they happen. I don't mean in a single hand. Everyone on this board has taken their share of beats. I can handle a single beat, no sweat. When there are a few back to back, this seems to be much more difficult for me and I find myself tilting, so I usually try to take a break for a while.

But then I run into something that really just makes me wonder if poker is really about playing a game to make money, or if it is strictly to test the players mental capacity to accept things that in a mathmatical sense you should see so rarely that it shouldn't even be considered.

To give my example of what brought this question on. I played only a little bit of a session last night. I ran QQ into AA 3 times over ~750 hands, twice on one table. I am just greatful that all 3 times I was against a 20BB stack.

So how do you guys get your minds wrapped around stuff like this?

That's not an anomaly. That's perfectly normal.

Poker is teaching me this right now, I will get back to you on the outcome.

The thing is, we all know the answer and when we accept it, and I mean really truly accept it, then we can move on.


just for perspective here.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...fe-t81083.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ad-t80786.html

lol 750 hand sample.

Seriously, I will repeat that beginning players have absolutely no sense of what variance actually is. New players seem to think that it's outrageous to lose over 2-3k hand samples. When in fact new players probably have only a small edge on the competition, if one at all (that is only slightly winning players if at all), and 2-3k hands is no where near the long run. I've run pretty meh (breakeven then losing) for 130k hands or so, and in the games I play, I'm definitely a 2-3ptbb/100 winner. It's just a part of the game, that I admit I still have trouble with at times. But the fact of the matter is, over the short run luck can play a great deal into your results. Bad players can win over the short run, while likewise, good winning players can lose. The long run is where the skill advantage comes into play, and you start seeing the sum of your mistakes versus villain's mistakes, and you begin converging towards your true winrate. But this long run, will take ALOT of hands to begin. So quit dwelling on small 1k, 10k, 50k hand samples.

lol you lost 60BB w QQ over 750 hands. i've lost 3 times that with QQ over the course of 1 hand.

stacks and surviva,

You guys sort of miss my point. I understand variance, I hate it, but I do understand it. My point is I had QQ 4 times during a short session of 750 hands. 3 of those times I was up against AA. This strikes me as a true anomaly, unfortunately I don't have a degree in math but I am having a hard time understanding it. Possible yes, probable not as much.

Jyms >> that thread you point to about nutsinho is absolutely the sickest. I am not sure what I would have done in that situation, except to know that I would have to buy a new computer and redecorate the room that I was in.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ztech

stacks and surviva,

You guys sort of miss my point. I understand variance, I hate it, but I do understand it. My point is I had QQ 4 times during a short session of 750 hands. 3 of those times I was up against AA. This strikes me as a true anomaly, unfortunately I don't have a degree in math but I am having a hard time understanding it. Possible yes, probable not as much.

Jyms >> that thread you point to about nutsinho is absolutely the sickest. I am not sure what I would have done in that situation, except to know that I would have to buy a new computer and redecorate the room that I was in.

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did you know that a once in a million chance event happens to each person about once a month?

I think the lesson that should be learned is when you have insane beats in one session to end your session if you let that start to change your play.

If you have just lost 3 hands to a 5% out card within 10 minutes ... Play the correct way or if you are now tempted to call because there is no way they have you beat again - TURN OFF YOUR COMPUTER

The next day ... your mindset will be much improved and your bankroll will say thanks for not flushing me to those fish :)

http://www.pokerhand.org/?4688994

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

http://www.pokerhand.org/?4688994

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Ok spoon, I see the hand but don't really understand what you are trying to say.

The main point of the post was to get input on how others deal with runs like this, apparently either everyone ignores/writes them off. Or they have a way of dealing with it. Not really sure how the link to the HH applies, please explain further.

Well, i'm sitting here at work doing nothing and i saw this topic. Actually the subject lead me to read it. First i must say that if any situation has a probability that is greater than 0 then it's not an anomally for that situation to happen...

Let me take a shot;

On a nine handed table you're dealt QQ (or any two which doesn't contain any A), what is the probability for at least one of the other players to hold Aces?

There are 50 cards in the deck so there are 50*49/2=1225 different possible combinations and we know that 6 of them are AA (4*3/2=6).

The probability of one not to be dealt AA is 1219/1225 = ~0,995.

Probability for all 8 guys not to be dealt AA is (0,995)^8 = ~0,96. And the probability of at least one villain to be dealt AA is 1 - 0,96 = 0,04 which is 4%...

It's probable that you go under AA with your QQ every 1 in 25 times... You see, that's nearly nine times the probability for one to be dealt AA (1/221)...

Of course it's rare to see this to happen 3 times in only 750 hands but may not be considered as an anomaly...

Here is what I have to say about this...I once read in a post that you will eventually run worse then you ever thought possible. For you currently, running QQ into AA is an anomaly. Not only is it not, it is statistically a probability that it will in fact happen MORE than once in your poker career.

As much as it sucks you have to brush it off and move on. Here is a concept I have come to slowly understand over my last couple weeks of run horrible...

Being results orientated and you
Ztech, I hate to tell you this but your being results orientated. Any time you make a decision based on the outcome this is called being results orientated. "But revo, I knew my QQ was a monster against his range so I was playing smart poker!". Yes you were, but where the problem comes in is you began to count chips before they headed your way.

What you should have been thinking was well my QQ is going to be 60% against villains range. I need to get as many chips in as I can so when I do win I can make the most long term. Say hypothetically villain shoves in 500 chips and you call, total pot is 1000. Long term you don't win the 1000 chips, you win 600 of it. You probably know this already but this supplements my next statement.

Every time a hand is over, poker odds reset themselves. There is no rule that says just because you ran QQ into AA 3 times over 750 hands doesn't mean it cant happen again. Not only is it statistically probable but I can guarantee it will happen again. Stop thinking so relatively! It only sticks out in your head because its AA and QQ. Why don't you start a thread every time you run any PP into a higher PP? Look threw your hands and I bet youll see how often it happens.

One last thing that I would like to talk about. What a majority of people think is luck, isnt luck. Getting QQ beat by JJ isn't luck, thats probability. It is not bad etiquette to put a "bad beat" on someone. The only real bad beat is when someone makes a play that nets them -EV and they get paid for it. But its only a bad beat because of the pot odds or the ICM related to it. The cards don't change their odds ever.

IMO real luck is a silent X factor. For instance, when AJKHoosier1 open shoved 44 in his last tourney win as the chip leader and got called by Pokerccinni with 88. AJK spiked a 4 and sent Cinni to the rail (not bad beat, statistical). A few days ago I tried the same play at a final table and ran my 22 into a bigger pair only I never hit the 2 and crippled my stack. So where is the luck? Luck IMO is situational. Its when the bad beat happens that sets lucky people apart from unlucky. Because truth be told, we wont all be faced with the same situations in our lifetime.

WOW! Sorry that was so long..