Originally Posted by
daven
I got sidetracked.
Opening AQ from under the gun in micro Full Ring no limit hold em.
I'm going to approach this from a classical proof standpoint.
List a bunch of premises together, and use these to answer a question.
One comment first though. Open folding AQ from UTG is 0 expected value. You will lose $0, You will win $0. It is not -EV in and of itself, but nor is open folding AA.
Some facts/premises and some generalisations of micro stakes and micro players:
1) When you hold AQ there are now less combinations of dominating hands:
12 combos of AK (rather than 16)
3 combos of AA
3 combos of QQ
6 combos of KK
9 combos of AQ
2) 3-bets from players without good hands are still fairly rare at micros. AJ and JJ are only rarely being 3-bet.
3) Micro players' preflop calling ranges are wide and most definitely not varied according to the position of the original raiser (nor should they be as, typically, players are opening the same range from MP as from UTG).
4) Micro calling ranges are comprised largely of Ax hands, broadway combinations (KQ/JT/etc), and 22-JJ (sometimes QQ-AA). Obviously other hands appear in calling ranges, but these three groups are by far the most common.
5) Players are passive. They call too often and don't raise enough. If they do raise (note – raise, not bet) it is typically because they have a very good hand.
6) Players are prone to playing big pots by calling down with top pair/weak kicker kind of hands.
7) A lot of players play scared and will fold their 2nd pair hands vs overcards. A lot of these same players will call down with these same hands. Some players mix it up. They will call or fold, they won't raise.
8) Beating micros is pretty easy. The keys are:
pick up heaps of small pots with steals, isolation plays, and c-bets
extract huge value with strong hands
exercise pot control with weak hands
don't bluff beyond c-bets too often (except for orphan pots, even then it's questionable
be happy to fold to significant aggression from a passive player
play strong ranges from early position, and speculative ranges for cheap in position
understand pot odds and play draws appropriately given these odds
ok. Now what does this have to do with opening AQ from EP?
AQ and dominating hands. Points 1 & 2 address this. Fold AQ to a 3-bet unless you have a read that villain is a maniac. However, your blockers against this QQ+/AK range mean that being 3-bet won't happen that often (someone do the maths, good practice).
AQ and flop play. I'm going to assume HU flop situations cos it's easier to describe, but the same reasoning applies in multi-way pots.
Addressing five types of non-monotone flop:
a) Ace high (using A72 as our example)
as per 3 above, this hits a significant portion of villain's range (Ax combos) and the presence of an ace makes it even less likely that pairs have hit a set (2 possibilities, not 3). There are now sixty 22-QQ (= 6x 33-66, 88-QQ, 3x22, 3x77) pair combinations in villain's range, you are ahead of 54 of them. Of the 130 possible hand combinations A2-AK (12xA3-A6, 6xA2, 6xA7, 6xAQ, 12xA8-AJ, 12xAK) in villain's range, you are ahead of all bar 30 (A2/A7/AK/AQ). Meaning you are ahead about 75% of the time. You are ahead of all the broadway combos. You are ahead of about all of the other random shit he may have called with. But, even better, is that he is calling with a lot of these hands that you are way ahead of. As per 5 & 6 above, he is calling most of his aces. He is calling some of his 88-QQ. Even better than that, AJ and AT are hands that villains will often happily call their stacks in with over three streets when they hit their pair of aces. This is part of the reason that AJ is so much worse than AQ, you are suddenly no longer ahead of as many of the aces that fish perceive as strong, and you are now behind/splitting against more of this perceived strong range. 100 bb deep and you're going to be pretty happy taking a bet-bet-bet line here.
b) K high (using KT6 as our example)
This is a pretty standard/easy cbet. As per 7, most Ax hands are folding. Most pairs are folding. If you c-bet 2/3 pot then you only need to win the pot 40% of the time for the bet to be neutral EV, if you win it any more often than that then it's a +EV bet. If you don't understand why, then find out. Players are scared that you have the king. They'll fold a bunch, especially 55 type of hands. Also as per 7 above, players sometimes also call their 2nd pair type of hands. Don't invest money past the flop unimproved.
c) Q high (using QT6 as our example)
This is a cbet for value, although you will find that most of villain's range will be folding. Any queen will be calling though (I haz top pair) and you're ahead of all bar QT. A bunch of 77-JJ is also calling, cos there isn't an ace or king on the flop, so you're obviously bluffing.
d) Undercard paired flops (e.g. 774)
C-bet these as you choose (I always would, just cos of the 40% thing). Barrel Ace or Q turns, otherwise shut down to resistance.
e) Low flops (e.g. 467)
You can c-bet or check fold these, up to you. Obviously don't get too involved if you face resistance.
So, of these five common flop flavours, what becomes apparent?
obvious point 1) You win a lot of pots on A/K/Q high flops. Some of these pots will be big. You will only rarely be playing multiple streets of aggression without the best hand.
obvious point 2) You won't be investing a lot of money when you have weak holdings.
obvious point 3) You will generally win a lot more $$ than you will lose if you don't play stupidly post flop.
Ok, to address some of the reasons not to open AQ utg.
1)It is so often dominated – MYTH, and even more so on the flops you like (eg. Aqx). You are also folding to 3-bets = even less likely that you're dominated post flop.
2)It's difficult to play post-flop – MYTH – see above.
3) sounds like everything you said applies to AJ - thanks to IOPQ for pointing this out in his post below. I will address this later.
