25NL: QQ, full house no goot?

Eh I think I may have fucked up here. Villain's preflop stats are 19/15/ 6% 3bet over 150 hands. He has high overall aggression factor/frequency and c-bets 60%. The confusing thing is his check behind on the flop. I was planning on check calling the flop. Since he checked behind I led the river and now we he raises me. Since I didn't lead the flop he may be seeing this as an attempt to take the pot with air so I decide to call. When he bets the river I put him squarely on AA-QQ and folded but in retrospect I may be making too much of a strong range. I guess the real question is, does he ever 3bet an UTG open with AT/TT-JJ. I'm not sure tbh, not enough history on him to know but by default I would say no. On the other hand, this may be my weak tight tendencies making their appearance again.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($9.97)
SB ($28.92)
BB ($26.69)
Hero (UTG) ($37.88)
MP ($54.91)
CO ($24.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
Hero bets $1, MP raises $3.35, 4 folds, Hero calls $2.35

Flop: ($7.05) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: ($7.05) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $3, MP raises $8.50, Hero calls $5.50

River: ($24.05) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $11, Hero folds

Total pot: $24.05

If he's got AA/KK I'd like to think he'd bet the flop. I'm not a fan of leading out weak here on the turn because it looks exactly what you said - trying to steal the pot. FWIW, I call the river.

check turn and let him stab?

I kind of want to shove for value

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Parasurama

I kind of want to shove for value

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Really? I think shoving is the worst option. I can't imagine him doing this with a T or 9 (I doubt he's bluffing much tbh anyways preflop so how does he have a T or 9 here often) and then AA/KK would definitely play like this some because they are horrible. JJ would be more likely to bet because we can easily have overs and omg I have to bet for protection.

I was semi-joking, but I think shoving is better than folding. He's basically repping nothing. I think it's more likely that he decided to take a very strange line as a bluff than that he decided to check back the flop with KK/AA/TT especially since our hand doesn't look too strong.

honestly id check flop see if a queen comes on river or anything that beats it see who bets and make your call or move according to many factors (persons playins history, wats on table, there bets) qq pretty strong so id personally call a fairley strong bet pre-flop but seriousley debate something along the lines of all-in

honestly id look at history, though i prob woulda called 11 at end

have to call river because your line looks weak and lol pot odds
he could think you have AK and be betting any pp for value

and even if his range is TT+, I think there's enough combos of JJ to make it a call

tough spot... my first thought is that any hand he's 3betting pre-flop, raising on the turn and then betting on river would have your queens beat here, but I don't know... Maybe he's put you on a weak hand since you checked the flop and the river and is betting with a low pocket pair or even just overcards, but if he were just trying to get you to fold, I feel like he probably would have bet more at the end.

anybody else feel like he should have led out with a bet on the river?

(BTW, great posts by Cashman12, above. Really insightful stuff.)

yeah, like if you didn't gay bet the turn you probably wouldn't be in such a 'tough' river spot. if you're going to gay bet the turn you better have a plan for the rest of the hand. I mean such a gay bet seems like you're trying to induce action, and you're getting it, and then once you get it, it's like you don't want it anymore.

He reraised you from MP and you call. So he is probably suspecting that you don't have KK or AA.
The pot is already decent on the flop and he is aggressive. Why would he not continuation bet on a 666 after your check if he has a weak hand? It's a perfect situation for a c-bet which makes me suspicious. And the river bet looks like he wants you to call. I think KK or AA are fairly likely holdings.
On the Turn it might have been better to checkraise. Bet/call becomes a bit transparent in this hand I think.

c/c turn, c/c river?
or if he checks back turn, lead river?