Looking more for feedback on my post-review thought process on this one.
Vil is 27/6/4.5 over 71. Never 3bet. Calls 31% pre-flop, and 60% from the BB. Only addt'l read I have is he will open limp big pairs (JJ) from EP, and then play them for stax -- betting the Fl & Tu on 7QQK and then chk/calling the Ri. So homestump appears to believe in the power of the pair.
Him flatting pre- doesn't tell me much. Given read above, he could even be sitting on JJ+. Cbet should be bigger I think, prolly $1.20. Dude only folds to CB 65% so I don't think I get a ton of info from this. However, I've also never seen him chk/raise, so when he checks the Tu, I'm taking J9 out of his range and prolly 88,TT,77,66 as he does have an aggression factor 4.5 so I'd think he would at least try for some value unless he's given up based on the board texture.
My Tu check was an obv mistake. If I take the straight out of his range, there's no reason to not barrel this. I think $2.25 would be good?
8 pairs on the Ri and he comes to life. The only thing the 8 changes IMHO is overpairs and 2prs if we already exclude the made sets and J9/99 based on no value attempt on Fl and Tu. So I think his range becomes TT+,88,78,T8,68 and maybe AT/KT thinking I whiffed and top two looks good.
And here's where I didn't think... If I call, I have good equity against this range (76%). If I raise ('cause, hey, I has a boat!), I'm pretty sure I fold out at least JJ/QQ... maybe even AA/KK and those are only possible if I assume he DIDN'T play them the way I saw him play big overs previously. If I pull just JJ/QQ out, I'm now a 44% dog. So moral of the story (I think) is call here because I'm ahead of his betting range but not his raising range? Or am I thinking about this wrong, cause hey, I has a boat!
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($25.30)
Hero (Button) ($25.33)
SB ($30.11)
BB ($25.56)
UTG ($40.27)
MP ($36.80)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif
3 folds, Hero bets $0.65, 1 fold, BB calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.40) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.85, BB calls $0.85
Turn: ($3.10) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: ($3.10) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
BB bets $2.50, Hero raises $7, BB raises $21.56 (All-In), Hero calls $16.83 (All-In)
Total pot: $50.76