Called all in, but does villains range justify this call?

Villain is running 40/33 after 33 hands so I don't have much info on him. Afer the flop, I raise his bet, only to face an all in. quickly thinking my outs, I call.

The hand troubled me though and after reading Spoonitnow's post about calculating EV with pokerstove I found out that my call was not good
even with the most optimistic evaluation of villain's range (all broadways and all pairs, everything that creates a draw, also Kxs and Kxo, Q9, Q8 ) i get something like 56 % equity. so by far smaller than 75% wich is the fraction bet size/(bet size + pot size).
Even if I add Ax o and s (wich is unlikely here) I still get 64%.

It is actually the first time I am doing this so please help me. Are the calulations right? Am I right ot say that the call had -EV?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($15.59)
SB ($9.48)
MP ($10)
CO ($11.44)
BB ($13.77)
Hero (Button) ($17.41)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif
2 folds, CO bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.95) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
CO bets $0.60, Hero raises $2.03, CO raises to $11.04 (All-In), Hero calls $9.01

Turn: ($23.03) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($23.03) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $23.03

I somebody feels that I post too many hands, please tell me :)

Okay you're calling $9.01 and the pot is $14.02 at the point of the call, so the equity you need is bet/(bet+pot) = 9.01/(9.01+14.02) = 9.01/23.03 = 39%.

Now what hands do you think he plays like this? Probably sets, two pair, QT for the straight, AA, and AK for sure. Against that range ( KK+,JJ,99,AKs,KJs,K9s,QTs,J9s,AKo,KJo,K9o,QTo,J9o in PokerStove) we have an equity of about 27%. So he would have to be doing this with some semibluffs as well for us to get anywhere close to the equity we need to have a profitable call. If we add all broadways, we still only have 38% equity, and since it's doubtful he's bluffing/semibluffing anywhere near that often, it's indicated that this is a fold.

Now as for the hand itself, preflop is fine. On the flop you're not really getting value from your raise since many worse hands probably aren't calling and it's likely that no better hands are folding. He has a wide range here so you shouldn't fold, so I think a check/call on the flop is better.

What are you raising flop for? You have midpair w a gutshot, runner runner spades, and maybe 3 tens as outs. Unless you have reads that tell you you have some good FE here or that he'll call with worse I don't know what your doing.

As for calling the all in, the only thing you beat is a complete bluff and you dont have equity against anything else.

I think you know the answer to this one.

Ok I didn't calculate the fraction correctly, now I get it.

And you are right. The raise on the flop was wrong. Question: If I was before villain, do I bet the flop or c/c it?

Eh thats a good question. You're probably ahead if he's got a 33% pfr, but im guessing he probably has a high c bet too. I'd say check to the raiser. Might not be a bad flop to float if you think hes cbetting a lot of worse hands, but I dont know anything because when I do that I end up folding to what seems to be a two barrel a lot and I feel like dumbass. Opponent dependent im thinking.

If you think he's gonna two barrell a lot maybe wait for a better spot where you dont have to risk a lot of chips w midpair and some weird draws. If you think he'll give up w worse hands let him cbet and float it and take it down w an extra bet than if you had lead out.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by stardustakos

Ok I didn't calculate the fraction correctly, now I get it.

And you are right. The raise on the flop was wrong. Question: If I was before villain, do I bet the flop or c/c it?

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Ask yourself what betting accomplishes first. Remember the fundamental theorem of poker -- we want him to make a mistake. If we bet, there are 2 basic kinds of mistakes he can make: either he can fold a hand he should call with, or he calls with a hand he should fold. Are either of those happening here?

I don't think so.

So we c/c flop like you said but not call in the all in. I get it.

Thanks ppl :)

Good thread.