Blind Stealing 102: "Blind Defense"
Introduction
About a year and a half ago I wrote a post in the Full Ring forum titled Blind Stealing 101. If you haven't read the OP of that post, go do so now then come back to this. In that post, I described how blind stealing against tight opponents is often profitable with any two cards because of their fold frequency. At the time, blind defense topics weren't as popular as they are now, so a little more knowledge is needed to run over the nit regulars. I'm going to hit the highlights.
The Premise
Most players are positionally aware preflop now to some extent. At the very least, most of them open more hands in late position than they do in early position. To drive the point home, a lot of nit regulars at full ring (I'm talking super nit like 10/8) still have an attempt to steal over 25%. Most regulars have an attempt to steal between 30% and 50%. This is the key tendency that we are going to adjust to.
Why I Refer To "Blind Defense" In Quotes
You're not being attacked, there is no fort, and there is no defense. Your opponents have a weak range, and you're responding to it. Don't let the terms like "stealing" and "defending the blinds" get too stuck in your head to the point that they generate an emotional response.
Calling
Suppose someone opens 30% of hands to 3x in the button and the SB folds and you're in the BB with ATs. While you are out of position, you are way ahead of his range in terms of equity and playability, so in most cases you should call and see a flop. Now you get to try to play against your opponent's tendencies with ideas like donk betting the flop and check/raising and whatnot. If you hit an Ace and your opponent is aggressive, it's fine to check/call since you know he's going to be c-betting almost every A-high flop with his entire range.
Most HUDs now have stats that have to do with folding to a donk bet on the flop or folding to a flop check/raise. Using these types of stats in addition to notes and reads on your opponents will guide your play a bit and let you get more value out of these spots.
3-Bet Bluffing
Suppose someone opens 30% of hands to 3x in the button and the SB folds and you're in the BB with 53s or something equally shitty and 3-bet to 10x. At this point you're betting 9bb to win 4.5bb so if he folds more than 2/3 of the time you're profitable even if you check/fold every time you see a flop. For this not to be profitable, he would have to be continuing with more than 1/3 of his 30% of hands he opens, or more than 10% of hands. To give you an idea of how many hands that is (and why it's unlikely), keep in mind that {22+, AJ+, KQ} is 10.7% of starting hands.
For some examples of how blockers can change our opponent's fold frequency for 3-bet bluffs, see the last part of this post. Most HUDs now have a stat that shows how often someone has folded a steal attempt to a 3-bet. This is worth having on a popup.
For a more detailed discussion, including finding near-optimal ranges, see this post based on Muzzard's notes from a coaching session with me.
3-Betting For Value
If some people are folding too much to a 3-bet after they open in late position, then it follows that some people aren't going to fold very much at all. This is when you open up your value range with hands like AQ, AJ, TT, and so on. Pay attention to how your opponents play after a steal when facing 3-bets and take notes. It's just as much of a gold mine as people folding their blinds 95% was 18 months ago.
A Note On "Shania"
When people start seeing you 3-bet bluff, your 3-bets for value will start making more money, which is even more reason to do it even if you think it will only be break even in a vacuum. Go Think about Shania if you don't understand.
Dealing With 4-Bet Bluffs And Beyond
If you study 3-bet bluffs a bit, you'll discover that 4-bet bluffs and 5-bet bluffs work on most of the same principles.
Re: Blind Stealing 102: "Blind Defense"
Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Introduction
The Premise
Most players are positionally aware preflop now to some extent. At the very least, most of them open more hands in late position than they do in early position. To drive the point home, a lot of nit regulars at full ring (I'm talking super nit like 10/8) still have an attempt to steal over 25%. Most regulars have an attempt to steal between 30% and 50%. This is the key tendency that we are going to adjust to.
By "positionally aware preflop now" do you mean now at 100nl? What I mean is, at 10nl when regs aren't positionally aware, they haven't been for some time, and still aren't I would assume, would you agree?
