Is this usual ?

Hi,

Not a complete beginer here, played a bit online and play in some home games from time to time. I know some basic stuff and I'm ok at maths.

Here's the thing..

Playing online at Party Poker I have now been beat with pocket aces...wait for it... eight times in a row (!!!) when I have seen a flop.

I did win one hand with them, but only because I put in a small raise (2x the BB) on the button, and everybody else folded. Bah.

Three of the eight times I got beat by a straight, twice by flushes, and various other combinations. I even made trip A's on the flop and still got beat... twice.

So if I'm an 80% pre flop favorite that means being beat is 4:1 against, right? So to lose eight times in a row must be 4 to the power of 8 ? ie- 4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4 which is about 65,000 to 1

What I want to know is- Does this sort of thing happen to anybody else online? Or should I just avoid online poker? Because it seems pretty sketchy to me...

Thoughts?

If I were to guess you're probably trying to be sneaky with your aces. Bet them like you got a big balls. If you are betting correctly and the villians are making poor calls then oh well shit happens. If you are betting properly and all then hold on because you've got a big heater coming your way. But I'm betting this isn't the case. Loook at how you are playing your aces as a whole!

normal? not quite.

going to happen on occasion anyways? yes.

also, being a whatever favorite preflop really only counts if you are all-in preflop. You can still be a huge underdog putting money in after the flop.

Hmm, well, 6 of the 8 times I was all-in before the flop. Trust me, I know how to raise with aces :D

The other two times I just called other peoples big raises, when they had stuff like A,10 suited or low pairs like 3's or 5's.

But in every case I got smashed. Usually on the river...

Just wondered if the same sort of crazy luck happens to other people online? Or am I just the lucky one ? :shock:

If your chance of losing with Aces is (1/5) then your chance of losing 8 times in a row is (1/5) to the power 8 which is 1/390625 or 390 624 - 1. However, if you lost three times in a row, then won with AA when everyone folded, then lost five times again, you have really only lost five times in a row.

I lost 11 times in a row with Aces on Party Poker to a lower pair. In some of those hands, I wasn't 80% to win because there was more than one person in the pot. But that did not make it less annoying. However, overall, of all the times I have been dealt AA on Party Poker, I have won 78% of the time. In online poker you see a lot of hands and so rarities can occur. Over time, they even out.

Minraising AA is not a good idea. You are only about 80% to win with AA, when you are pre-flop against one opponent. If you have four opponents, then your chances are only a little better than half. And has been pointed out, if you have AcAs and your opponent has Ah4h, your chance of winning pre-flop is 87%. If the flop is Kh 6h 5h, your chance of winning is less than 2%.

Don't worry about whether you are unlucky or if online Poker is rigged. Improve your play.

no, online poker isnt rigged.

yes, its unusual because its rare but nonetheless it should and DOES happen

Meh, the only reason I min raised the one time was because everybody folded to me, leaving me and the big and small blind (who were both playing tighter than a ducks chuff..) and I knew they would fold to any large bet, so I tried a min raise.. and they still folded.

To be honest I could have raised on any two cards and they would've folded. So I don't really count that as a win per se.

The point was being beaten 8 times having seen a flop.

I still think it's a bit sketchy, or, maybe I'm the last person on earth you should ask to pick your lottery numbers :)

It's defiantly not sketchy as JKDS said.

no way, aces lose sometimes?
why didn't anybody tell me

Yes it is unusual. You got very unlucky. Now you probably need to play another 200 000 hands before your EV evens out with AA.

Hi OP, welcome to FTR.

Post hands, learn, improve. Whining doesnt do any good.

GL.

Who here remembers Angry Donk Theorem?

link?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

no way, aces lose sometimes?
why didn't anybody tell me

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LOL... and in other news, the new phone books are here.

http://www.covchurch.org/uploads/8Y/...-are-here3.jpg

Quote:

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Originally Posted by h1ghf1ve

So if I'm an 80% pre flop favorite that means being beat is 4:1 against, right? So to lose eight times in a row must be 4 to the power of 8 ? ie- 4x4x4x4x4x4x4x4 which is about 65,000 to 1

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so you play HU? 'cause if you play any other style, then you're actually <50% favorite

I remember ADT carroters