AKs with flush draw facing big raise ($10NL).

Villain was 20/11 over 153 hands. He seemed pretty decent for a $10NL player. I thought he could have something like 78 here, or had maybe flopped a set. I'm about 40% against this range. Alternatively, he could have noticed me c-betting the flop a lot after I had raised pre-flop, but his bet size tells me has something big, and is worried by the flush draw. Is this an easy fold?


Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10)

UTG: ($16.11)
Hero: ($16.04)
CO: ($10.16)
Button: ($30.25)
SB: ($9.90)
BB: ($4.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A :heart:, K :heart:.
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Button calls $0.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) 6 :heart:, 5 :club:, 8 :heart: (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, Button raises to $5.20, 1 fold, Hero ??

I'd fold. I think you're right. The overbet seems like he's trying to protect a decent hand against flush drawing odds. If you call and any heart hits, your action dries up anyhow.

Well, if you were to call the flop it would be -EV.

Board: 6h 8h 5c

Hand 0: 42.947% { AhKh }
Hand 1: 57.053% { 55+, 97s, 86s, 74s, 65s }

I think a push is -EV as well (unless he is able to ever fold this):
pot equity = 45%

No fucking way I don't shove this. Try adding a little more to his range other than monsters (like hands afraid of flush draws). If he folds like 10% of the time to a shove your way over what you need to get this in. If your thinking of folding your playing the wrong game. Your playing his whole range, including hands that have some equity and hope you fold.

Push

So many factors make this a shove over.

1. You said yourself that he might have noticed you c-betting too much

2. You can't bet this flop when there are 2 opponents with the intentions of folding

3. We have decent equity vs his range that does this, do you really think he is raising this much on his absolute nut hands? (ie straights, even though those can be discounted because wtf what decent player calls with 9-7,7-4,8-6 pre in this spot even OTB?)

4.Like Jyms said even if he folds a small % of the time we profit

5. Gambool

Coming from SnGs, shoving over seemed the natural thing to do, which I did. I posted this hand because I've shoved over four or five times lately, in similar situations, and lost my stack each time.

I'm not sure what percentage of the time $10NL players will fold after making such a big raise, as I've not really played enough hands yet. So far, I'd say the percentage is pretty small.

I was just checking I wasn't making a really big mistake by shoving. Thanks for the replies.

Do you think your overcards are good? If so, then you should probably shove. Otherwise, I would fold this.

Do you think your overcards are good? If so, then you should probably shove. Otherwise, I would fold this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by golfguy37

Do you think your overcards are good? If so, then you should probably shove. Otherwise, I would fold this.

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fold equity is much more important here than who has the better made hand as of right now. regardless of what he has we have at least 33% equity (a little less than that if he has a set). unless he has a set or like 97 then we're flipping a coin so any fold equity is like pure profit, and a lot of knuckleheads even show up with a hand we're beating here a lot of time like QhJh

stick it in if you like getting 150bbs in with about 30% equity

you ppl even look at stack sizes

Do you really think that aqt $10NL this hand only has 30% equity in these situations?

And yes I missed the stack sizes so I may just call, but still like shoving. But I am in no way letting this go. I still shove a ton though and expect to see a 7 or smaller flushes as well as sets, 99-JJ here

Code:

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  56,430  games    0.047 secs    1,200,638  games/sec

Board: 6h 5c 8h
Dead: 

        equity        win        tie              pots won        pots tied       
Hand 0:        43.507%          42.56%        00.95%                  24014              537.00  { JJ-55, AQs, A8s-A7s, 98s, 87s, AQo }
Hand 1:        56.493%          55.54%        00.95%                  31342              537.00  { AhKh }

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jyms there's no way he has AQ here ever considering he'd have a backdoor flush draw AT BEST
also a 20/11 could easily have 97s here because he must be calling raises or limping more than a standard tag... I'd play 97s here too, but probably 3bing it
an 8 is not raising, and if he's getting it in here with an 8 one hundred sixty BB deep he's retarded
and if he's not getting it in here with an 8, then our equity against the 8 is completely irrelevant

so let's make a range of hands that we think he'll felt:
Board: 6h 5c 8h

Hand 0: 55.833% { JJ-55, Th9h, 97s, 87s, 7h5h, 5h4h }
Hand 1: 44.167% { AhKh }

so if he ever raises something and folds it we should shove

OP says he is decent and may have noticed him Cbetting a ton. AQ reps the hands he may bluff raise with here. This board is dry and probably a great spot to raise with air. AQ is just one of those hands that may do this because it plays well if called by a weak pair.

your standard 20/10ish weak 10nl player isn't going to play back to cbets like this without a hand/strong draw.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jyms

OP says he is decent and may have noticed him Cbetting a ton. AQ reps the hands he may bluff raise with here. This board is dry and probably a great spot to raise with air. AQ is just one of those hands that may do this because it plays well if called by a weak pair.

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he's not getting his entire stack in with AQ

here's how you do this:
you figure out his entire bluff raising range
you figure out his stack-off range
you calculate the equity vs. his stack off range
you add fold equity vs. his raising range

you don't put hands into the pokerstove that will fold because we're trying to find the equity of a semi-bluff WHEN CALLED and then add the amount of money we win when he folds
otherwise we get "lol, when he calls a shove we're getting it in good"

I mean, make our stacks 300BB, is getting it in here EV+?

i think he has a set which means your behind. imo its shove or fold. if you shove hes calling. if you fold you boost your overall fold equity. I mean do you really think this guy is just spewing??? or protecting??? OP said he was a descent player. I dont even need to fuck with hand ranges to fold this hand because at worst and i mean at worst hes got two pair. Which means you got like what 36% chance to win the hand either way. Pushing isnt the worst thing, calling is stupid. But why shove on a prayer? i geuss it all depends if you feel like gambling. just my 2 cents

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

stick it in if you like getting 150bbs in with about 30% equity

you ppl even look at stack sizes

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Yah missed the stack sizes... :oops:

Still Spenda I think we can both agree that we can't bet/fold this flop can we?

Also I think our equity is higher than 30%, I tend to agree with IOPQ's stack-off range of villain

Quote:

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Originally Posted by RoyalProdigy

if you fold you boost your overall fold equity.

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:?: :?: :?:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by RoyalProdigy

if you fold you boost your overall fold equity

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This makes me sad :(

Quote:

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Originally Posted by caddie444

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

stick it in if you like getting 150bbs in with about 30% equity

you ppl even look at stack sizes

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Yah missed the stack sizes... :oops:

Still Spenda I think we can both agree that we can't bet/fold this flop can we?

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meh it's closer than the first 10 replies to the thread, his flop raising range is going to be sets/straights/dominated draws. I doubt he's raising hands like 99/TT here, so the question becomes does he raise to this size with lesser flush draws?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Quote:

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Originally Posted by caddie444

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

stick it in if you like getting 150bbs in with about 30% equity

you ppl even look at stack sizes

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Yah missed the stack sizes... :oops:

Still Spenda I think we can both agree that we can't bet/fold this flop can we?

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meh it's closer than the first 10 replies to the thread, his flop raising range is going to be sets/straights/dominated draws. I doubt he's raising hands like 99/TT here, so the question becomes does he raise to this size with lesser flush draws?

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I think it's very likely with dominated straight flush draws, not so much with random queen high flush draws

ok with the 6h/8h on the board, and us holding the Ah what SF draw can he have

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

ok with the 6h/8h on the board, and us holding the Ah what SF draw can he have

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Th9h, 7h5h, 5h4h

also 7hxh probably sticks it in here just fine

lol yes, 7hxh does stick it in, except I already told you he pretty much never has 7hxh unless it's 97hh

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

lol yes, 7hxh does stick it in, except I already told you he pretty much never has 7hxh unless it's 97hh

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he holds :7h: :7h: exactly